April 24, 2017

Jim Turvey's 2017 MLB waiver wire watch list for Week 4 of fantasy baseball. Potential sleepers and adds for 10-team, 12-team, 14-team and AL/NL-only leagues.

Welcome to Week 4 of The Watch List. We have had a few iterations already, but here’s a friendly reminder for those who forgot. Each week we’ll be updating this list full of players who you aren’t quite ready to be picked up (depending on league size, of course), but who need to be on your radar regardless. We’ll look at eight players in-depth each week and keep tabs on players “graduating” into the waiver wire pickups category, as well as players demoted off the list entirely (this week there were sweeping cuts, so there will be no “demoted” section). Players in bold covered in detail this week, players in italics covered in past weeks.

We’re switching things up a little bit this week, we’re cutting down on the total number of names on our list (you couldn’t even have an actual watch list as long as we had last week over at ESPN), and instead of sorting strictly by own percentage, the names will be ordered by personal preference. We tried doing just percentage owned, but people are just too reckless. This way you can be ahead of the next big guy instead of behind on him.

Once again, if there are any names who you’d like to see highlighted next week, or even just added to the list as a whole, feel free to at me on Twitter (@FantasyBaseTurv). Let’s get this show on the road.

Players to Watch in 10-team Leagues

Joey Gallo (3B, TEX) 25%

Three more long balls for Gallo in the past week. His average won’t be great, but his power is too awesome to ignore. Plus he has two steals already this season.

Mitch Moreland (1B, BOS) 27%

Moreland has transitioned into the Red Sox as smoothly as anyone could have imagined, and he is putting up some excellent stats to start the season for Boston. Moreland .315/.390/.548 with a league-leading 11 doubles so far this season. While his BABIP (.404) suggests that batting average may come back down to earth a bit, he may well be able to cancel out the upcoming drop with just a few of those doubles turning into home runs. Right now, Moreland has a 42.9 percent fly ball rate with a 53.1 percent hard hit ball rate, and plays his home games in Fenway, and yet he has only two home runs. If you’re in an OPS league, you’re already loving Moreland, but for standard leagues, those extra HR could be huge. Moreland seems like a possible .260 hitter with 25-30 HR power in a stacked Red Sox lineup.

Eduardo Rodriguez (SP, BOS) 13%

Rodriguez missed a start early in the week due to paternity leave, but he was excellent on Sunday, throwing six scoreless innings in Camden Yards - no easy feat. He gave up only one hit, but had five walks. This is pretty much the E-Rod we can expect right now.

Taylor Motter (SS/OF, SEA) 18%

Motter is beginning to see the inevitable regression in his batting average, but his power hasn’t gone anywhere, making the shortstop of particular interest in many leagues. Motter is up to five home runs on the season, and although the HR/FB rate of over 30 percent won’t be sustainable, he’s hitting the ball incredibly hard right now (51.5 percent hard hit ball rate), so we at least have reason to believe the results we have seen so far. Motter also has a plus line drive rate and fly ball rate, just the type of profile you would create for a powerful shortstop for the long-term. Motter is getting his first real chance in the majors and deserves to be watched right now.

Trevor Rosenthal (RP, STL) 32%

Rosenthal got his first save of the season, but it was only because Seung Hwan Oh had pitched back-to-back nights. Rosenthal is undoubtedly the next man up for St. Louis, but Oh has looked better in his most recent outings.

Players to Watch in 12-team Leagues

David Freese (1B/3B, PIT) 13%

There’s a lot to like from Freese in 2017. For one, he is showing the .300 BA he has always supposedly had the potential for. Freese is hitting .315 with a BABIP of only .318, suggesting he could keep up the nice average for a while. He has also been a lot more disciplined at the plate, drawing ten walks to just eight strikeouts this season. Freese struck out 28.9 percent of the time in 2016, which makes a good average very difficult. Freese has also shown a bit of pop this season, with three long balls so far, and while Freese is never going to be a big power guy, he is sporting the highest fly ball rate of his career so far. Freese is getting a bit lucky on infield hits right now, but if he can hit in the .285 range with 15-18 home runs, there’s definite value there for a player with third base eligibility.

Justin Wilson (RP, DET) 20%

Jarrod Dyson (OF, SEA) 23%

While Dyson’s modest four-game hit streak came to an end Sunday, the Mariners speedster still stole a base, his sixth of the season. Dyson is doing pretty close to what our baseline projections were for him in 2017, and he has room to improve. With six steals in 19 games, Dyson is showing that he can steal 50 bases in a season if he can hold down a daily job in the Mariner outfield. Dyson has room to improve with his BABIP as well, as his current BABIP of .238 is extremely low for any hitter, let alone a speedster like Dyson. Now the 42.4 percent soft contact rate will take a chunk out of a hitter’s BABIP, but there’s still room to improve Dyson’s BA and with it, the number of chances for steals.

Logan Morrison (1B, TB) 13%

Zack Wheeler (SP, NYM) 22%

Travis d’Arnaud (C, NYM) 34%

Travis d’Arnaud has been out of the starting lineup each of the past four games, due to a wrist contusion he picked up behind the dish. This is not the worst wrist injury to have, and he has been able to pick up pinch-hit appearances in those games. He should be back full-time sooner than later.

C.C. Sabathia (SP, NYY) 33%

Wade Miley (SP, BAL) 29%

For most of his career, Miley has been a pitcher who hasn’t been able to get his ERA down to the level of his FIP and xFIP. Just look at last season, when he posted an ugly 5.37 ERA, he had a much better 4.04 xFIP. For his career, his 4.14 ERA is much worse than his 3.89 FIP and 3.82 xFIP. So far 2017 has been the opposite. Miley is sporting a flashy 1.89 ERA, but his FIP (3.15) and xFIP (2.88) aren’t quite as great. However, both numbers are still well above-average, and his 11.37 K/9 rate is shocking for a pitcher with a career K/9 of 7.14. Miley, Kendall Graveman and a few others, is going to his sinking fastball more than ever before and the results speak for themselves. I’m not buying the huge jump in strikeout rate (his swinging strike rate is a far more pedestrian 8.9 percent), but I think he’s a good stream in the right matchups.

Jason Heyward (OF, CHC) 28%

Heyward is finally getting a little pop in addition to his solid on-base rate to start the season. Heyward had two home runs in the last week, and his slash line now looks pretty similar to 2015.

Players to Watch in 16-team Leagues

Aaron Hicks (OF, NYY) 10%

Hicks had the best last week of any player on this list, continuing his hot start with two home runs and two steals for the Yankees. Hicks is now slashing .303/.455/.727 with four home runs, two steals, and twice as many walks as strikeouts. The only reason he isn’t higher is that the Yankees still refuse to give him a full-time job. If he keeps playing like this, it’s only a matter of time, but there’s something to be said for being able to produce in a full-time role versus as a platoon player. If Hicks does get the full-time nod, it will be interesting to see if his stats suffer (outside of the normal regression we’re expecting). Hicks is rocking a pretty absurd HR/FB rate right now (36.8%), and he has been caught stealing twice already, so make sure not to overrate him.

Scott Schebler (OF, CIN) 5%

Jorge Polanco (2B/SS/3B, MIN) 16%

Polanco with a steal and five RBI in the past week. He continues to fly under the radar because of his limited ceiling, but he has an excellent floor for a multi-positional infielder.

Domingo Santana (OF, MIL) 26%

Santana remains for now, but his line drive rate and hard-hit ball rate are both down from his promising 2015 season.

Derek Norris (C, TB) 4%

If you want a name to get as a possible big-time jumper in ownership over the next couple of weeks, take a look at Norris. Yes, he is a catcher slashing .173/.200/.192 right now, but he has been one of the least lucky players in baseball this season. Norris has been absolutely lacing the ball, with the second-best line drive rate among catchers with as many plate appearances (27.5%) and the third-best hard hit ball rate among that same group (40.0%). The Rays travel to Baltimore and Toronto this week, two hitters’ havens, and Norris could well see his slugging percentage nearly triple in the next week.

Players to Watch in AL or NL-Only Leagues

Jed Lowrie (2B, OAK) 4%

Scooter Gennett (2B, CIN) 4%

Lucas Duda (1B, NYM) 11%

Duda is on the DL with a hyperextended left elbow, but it is retroactive to April 20, so he could be back quite soon.

Austin Meadows (OF, PIT) 6%

When the news of Starling Marte’s suspension hit the airwaves (or whatever it is that news hits these days - the Twittersphere?), Meadows name came up immediately, as the 21-year-old seemed like a perfect option to come replace Marte. The outfielder was the number six prospect in baseball before the season, but he is hitting just .196 this season. Pirates GM Neal Huntington also said that Meadows isn’t ready for the big leagues this week. That being said, if Meadows gets hot and the Pirates’ in-house solutions to Marte begin to cost them games, it wouldn’t at all be shocking to see Meadows make it to the big leagues at some point this season. Meadows has the potential to succeed when he gets here, so keep him on your radar for the time being.

Andrew Toles (OF, LAD) 4%

Graduated - Ownership Too High

Cesar Hernandez (2B, PHI) 69%

Avisail Garcia (OF, CHW) 66%

Chase Headley (3B, NYY) 62%

Andrew Triggs (SP, OAK) 61%

Steven Souza Jr. (OF, TB) 57%

Corey Dickerson (OF, TB) 45%

Demoted

N/A

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