RADIO
Welcome to Week 10 of The Watch List. Each week we’ll be updating this list full of players who you maybe aren’t quite ready to pick up (depending on league size, of course), but who need to be on your radar regardless. We’ll look at several players in-depth each week and keep tabs on players “graduating” into the waiver wire pickups category, as well as players demoted off the list entirely. (Reminder, these are Yahoo ownership and positions.)
With the season beginning to stabilize a bit, there are simply fewer players graduating and being demoted each week. With that in mind, we’ll no longer have a set number of eight players highlighted each week, but rather somewhere in the five to eight range. However many players graduate/are demoted will be replaced and the new players will be highlighted.
Once again, if there are any names who you’d like to see highlighted next week, or even just added to the list as a whole, feel free to at me on Twitter (@FantasyBaseTurv). Let’s get this show on the road.
Editor's Note: Our friends at Fantrax have even more fantasy baseball advice columns and videos to help improve your teams. Be sure to also check them out!
Players to Watch in 10-team Leagues
Logan Morrison (TB, 1B): 38% owned
Morrison keeps improving his power profile, adding three homers in the past week, as he now has 16 on the season. The HR/FB rate is a bit lofty at 25.8 percent, but with a 43.8 percent hard hit ball rate and 45.3 percent fly ball rate, don’t expect the homers to dry up too much.
Jimmy Nelson (Mil, SP): 34% owned
Nelson is this week’s must-add, as he absolutely went off over the past week, striking out 10 in seven, one-run innings against the Diamondbacks last Sunday, before striking out 11 over eight shutout innings against the Dodgers on Friday. Nelson now has a 3.36 ERA on the season, and the peripherals suggest that type of run prevention may just be sustainable. His FIP is 3.03 and his xFIP is 3.38. Nelson is striking out 9.09 batters per nine this season, and he has nearly cut his walk rate in half compared to last season. Nelson’s swinging strike rate has improved three percent from last season, and he has gotten a bit unlucky with a .330 BABIP allowed in 2017. Both of his last two excellent starts came at home, so there’s not even reason to worry with a home stadium that can be hitter friendly at times. His next start is against the Giants, and he should tear apart the poor-hitting Bay Area squad.
Max Kepler (Min, OF): 29% owned
Kepler had another solid week, collecting nine hits, seven runs and a pair of homers. Kepler has his wRC+ up to 116, and he may actually be due for a bit of home run luck in the upcoming months.
Lucas Duda (NYM, 1B): 21% owned
Duda’s power numbers have exploded in the past few weeks, as he added four more homers in the past week. Duda is up to double-digit homers on the season and remains in the Jed Lowrie tier of “must-own when healthy.”
Zack Wheeler (NYM, SP): 34% owned
Wheeler posted a second straight quality start, going six and a third, and striking out six in a no decision against the Milwaukee Brewers. The ten hits allowed weren’t great, but Wheeler has landed right into the solid production tier thought possible before the season.
Players to Watch in 12-team Leagues
Trevor Rosenthal (StL, RP): 33% owned
Rosenthal remains a player to watch rather than add, as he is still throwing the ball as hard as anyone in baseball (99.2 mph average fastball velocity highest, per Statcast, in 2017) and sitting behind a closer (Seung-Hwan Oh) who is getting better results than the peripherals suggest he should be getting.
Jed Lowrie (Oak, 2B): 19% owned
Another week of improved Lowrie ownership, but this was a bit quieter week for the man whose bandwagon I am the conductor of. He still had five hits and a homer to go along with eight RuBIns (runs+RBI) - not bad at all.
Bradley Zimmer (Cle, OF): 19% owned
Zimmer had as nice a week as any returning hitter on this list, and given his status as a rookie with a nice prospect pedigree, he should be a popular add in the upcoming week. Zimmer had two homers, a steal and eight RBI in a six-hit week. The only thing holding some folks back might be a lack of full-time at bats.
Ariel Miranda (Sea, SP): 23% owned
Miranda had a very nice two-start week, going five innings for the win in Colorado in his first start before really making a difference with his complete game, nine-strikeout, one-run win against the Rays on Sunday. The only reason he’s not higher is he just had his two-start week, so his value drops a bit in terms of upcoming weeks.
Mike Foltynewicz (Atl, SP): 14% owned
Folty had arguably his best start of 2017 this past week, netting 10 strikeouts over seven, one-run innings against the Cincinnati Reds. He allowed just two hits and two walks against the Reds, and he should be a must-start in even shallow leagues this upcoming start against the Phillies.
JC Ramirez (LAA, SP/RP): 35% owned
Ramirez drops a bit in the rankings after a seven-run blowup against the Twins last week. Ramirez has been mostly excellent since his move into the rotation, and Friday’s matchup was hopefully just a blip on the radar. His xFIP as a starter is still 3.87, which seems just about in line with what to expect for the rest of the season.
Jarrod Dyson (Sea, OF): 18% owned
Dyson didn’t have a steal last week, but he did have eight hits which he parlayed into five runs and six RBI - a solid contribution from the speedy outfielder.
Tommy Joseph (Phi, 1B): 20% owned
Joseph has slowed down a bit in recent weeks, as a homer was just about all you got over the past seven days from Joseph. That’s his best trait, and if he’s not hitting them, he can certainly be a drag on your team. His stock is dropping right now, but he’s still valuable enough for this list.
Players to Watch in 14+ team Leagues
Jordan Montgomery (NYY, SP): 14% owned
Montgomery had a strange two-start week, giving up just one earned run, but also going just a combined 10.1 innings. He got one win, one loss, and just about a strikeout an inning for the week (10 Ks), a decent return for anyone who streamed him for the two starts.
Gerardo Parra (Col, 1B/OF): 14% owned
Parra has multi-hit games in four of his last five starts, with the streak of four straight only coming to an end on Sunday. The 30-year-old veteran has brought his slash line up to .310/.342/.476 with the recent hot streak, and the good news is only half of that streak came at home. He proved he was more than just “Coors hot” with a beast of a series against the Padres in San Diego. Parra is sporting an awesome 28.7 percent line drive rate and 34.7 percent hard hit ball rate in 2017. Those type of numbers will play anywhere, not just Coors Field, which is good considering seven of their next nine games are on the road. Parra isn’t higher only because he isn’t getting everyday at bats for Colorado these days, so it’s tough to be overly-invested in him. He’s a good platoon player right now, especially when the schedule gets to be more Coors-heavy in future weeks.
Danny Valencia (Sea, 1B/3B/OF): 15% owned
Valencia has been a hitter who has gone through some impressively hot streaks in years past, and it appears that the veteran righty is in the midst of one of those right now. With two more hits on Sunday, Valencia now has nine hits in the last three games alone (!) and 14 hits in his past seven games. Valencia did work all of May, posting a wRC+ of 128 for the month after an icy April. Now that he has officially turned into a molten-hot ball of hits in June, he’s worth an add while he runs this hot streak out. He’s got some nice positional eligibility and a track record of producing whenever he gets regular at bats. The peripherals look right in line with years past right now, so all signs are go for Valencia.
Jorge Bonifacio (KC, OF): 6% owned
Bonifacio isn’t going away after just one week, in fact, thanks to an eight-hit (and five-run) week, he’s moving up a bit in the rankings and is an interesting option to keep an eye on moving forward.
Joe Biagini (Tor, SP): 13% owned
Biagini was one of the better two-start pitchers from the past week, taking a pair of tough-luck losses, as he went six, two-run innings against the Rangers and then seven, one-run innings against the Yankees. He had 13 strikeouts over those 13 innings and would have been among the very best starters last week if the Jays had supplied him any sort of run support.
Players to Watch in AL or NL-Only Leagues
Tommy Pham (StL, OF): 9% owned
Pham had a homer, a steal, and six runs in the past week, but had only four hits to prop up your average. Pham is a go-big or go-home type, so weeks like this can be expected on occasion.
Joe Mauer (Min, 1B): 6% owned
It’s great to see Mauer with some fantasy relevancy again, as he’s hitting the ball pure once again in Minnesota. The smooth-swinging lefty has a .287/.359/.416 slash line that is his best since 2013. Mauer is hitting the ball harder than any season since 2013 as well (37.1 percent hard hit ball rate), and he has been especially hot of late, with 12 hits and seven RBI in the past week. He no longer brings the added value of being eligible behind the plate for you, but he still carries value, especially in deeper leagues, or even somewhat shallower on-base percentage leagues. There are no numbers to suggest he’s getting lucky right now, and as long as he stays healthy, he should see plenty of at bats (and therefore run and RBI opportunities) in Minnesota.
Jeff Locke (Mia, SP/RP): 1% owned
Locke is on here mostly because finding even some semblance of a starting pitcher in AL and NL-only leagues is darn near impossible these days. Locke is owned in only one percent of leagues thanks to only having come off the DL before his most recent start, so we’re dealing with the smallest of sample sizes. That being said, Locke looked pretty strong in his 2017 debut. He struck out seven and didn’t walk any in five and two-thirds innings. He allowed just one run on three hits, taking a no decision against a potent Arizona offense. His next outing is against the Cubs in Wrigley, so definitely wait for a start to see just how legitimate that first outing was.
Colby Rasmus (TB, OF): 2% owned
Rasmus still isn’t getting everyday at bats for Tampa Bay, so he’s not going to jump up much in these rankings. However, if he keeps popping at least a homer a week, he’s going to have value in the deepest leagues out there.
Graduated - Ownership Too High
Domingo Santana (Mil, OF): 46% owned
Dan Straily (Mia, SP): 43% owned
Brad Peacock (Hou, SP/RP): 41% owned
Demoted
Derek Norris (TB, C): 2% owned
Nate Karns (KC, SP): 14% owned
Buck Farmer (Det, RP): 1% owned
