RADIO
Like many of you reading this, my general strategy with defenses is to stream away based on matchups. It works well and because the elite defenses are drafted at such a premium that I can never justify taking them. For example, the Seahawks weren’t even the #1 fantasy defense last season (that was the Bills) and on reputation alone they currently have a Fantasy Pros ADP of 62nd, sandwiched between T.J. Yeldon and Brandon Marshall. No thanks!
All that said, I do like to try and grab a defense that I think has top five upside in the final two rounds just to see if it hits. If it does, that’s awesome, I don’t have to worry about the position on a week-to-week basis. If not, I go back to streaming and find whoever plays the Jaguars, Raiders or some other mediocre offense. Here I’ll look at three defenses being drafted outside the top ten that I do believe offer top five upside with plenty of sacks and turnovers!
Editor's Note: Be sure to also read about more fantasy football defense rankings & analysis, all in one easy place. You can also click here and find more defense sleepers and undervalued defenses that can return big time draft value based on their current ADPs.
Denver Broncos - Fantasy Pros: ADP DST11
The Broncos had their share of troubles during the 2014 season. They finished the season strong though, with three double-digit scoring weeks in the final five, with the other two games coming in at 6+ points. This team is loaded with talent, and finished in the top 10 in sacks and interceptions. I'm a bit concerned that with Peyton getting a little older the offense may regress a bit, and the defense will have to be leaned onto more. They move from a defensive-minded HC to an offensive-minded one, but Gary Kubiak wisely hired defensive guru Wade Phillips to lead the defense. The coaching pair finished in the top ten in fewest yards allowed in all three seasons they spent together in Houston, while also finishing top ten in both fewest points allowed and takeaways in two seasons.
Wade Phillips now gets to work with Von Miller and Chris Harris, and will also be reunited with aging star DeMarcus Ware. These guys are all big-time playmakers that anchor an excellent overall defense. They also have last year's first-rounder Bradley Roby at corner and this year's first in outside line backer Shane Ray. I have no doubt there will be plenty of fantasy points from sacks and turnovers for this defense, the main question is whether they can prevent opponents from scoring. Looking at the schedule, they face Baltimore and Detroit early. If they are as good a defense as I expect them to be, neither matchup should be much of a problem. The Broncos don’t face an elite offense until the Packers and Colts back-to-back in Weeks 8 and 9. Prior to that they could provide steady value for your fantasy team.
Carolina Panthers - Fantasy Pros ADP: DST14
The Panthers are a hard defense to figure out. They had the pieces to succeed but for some reason struggled for most of 2014. However over the last four games they scored at least nine fantasy points per game, and allowed just 13 points total to the Saints and Falcons. The turnaround seemed to coincide with the return of corner back Bene Benwikere and the increased playing time for safety Tre Boston. They did end up struggling against the Seahawks in the postseason, but this is still a defense with a lot of high-caliber talent.
I think the late success of the secondary will continue in 2015. Up front they have two great young tackles in Star Lotulelei and Kawann Short, with veteran sack machine Charles Johnson on the outside. At linebacker they have arguably the best middle line backer in football in Luke Kuechly. This is a team that will be hard to run against, and if I’m right about the secondary throwing won’t be much easier. They also have a nice early schedule; in three of the first four games they face the Jaguars, the Texans and the Bucs. They do also face the Saints during that stretch before their Week 5 bye, but the Panthers should be able to rack up some nice point totals against those other three teams. The schedule does get a lot harder after the bye but if they can give you elite production in the first four games, they are worth drafting.
Minnesota Vikings - Fantasy Pros ADP DST 16
The Vikings finished as the DST12 last season and should be even better in 2015. One positive factor is that they only face two elite offenses all season--the Broncos in Week 4 and the Packers in Week 9. They face the Packers twice of course, but the second matchup isn’t until Week 17 when most fantasy leagues are already over. On the other hand, their early schedule isn’t exactly a walk in the park; they face the 49ers, Lions and Chargers before they meet the Broncos. Those first three weeks will be a great test of whether this defense is legitimate or not. If they look good there, you should feel fine about playing them every week outside of the Packers matchup.
HC Mike Zimmer is one of my favorite defensive coaches. In six years with Cincinnati, Zimmer’s defenses finished top ten in yards and points allowed four times. His defenses seemed to get better and better every year, and his final season with the Bengals was the team's best, as they finished top five in takeaways and points allowed. He took over a Vikings team that finished 25th in points allowed the previous year, and brought them up to 11th. I’m excited to see whether he can improve on that number this year.
Defensive end Everson Griffin broke out with 12 sacks in his first season with Zimmer, and rookie Anthony Barr also provided four sacks and two forced fumbles. Barr should be even better this year with a year of legitimate experience under his belt. In the secondary they have rising star Xavier Rhodes alongside the versatile Harrison Smith, who had three sacks and five interceptions in 2014. The Vikings have invested heavily on defense in the draft in recent years, and it’s paying off. This team is stocked with talent and I trust Mike Zimmer to put it to use.
