The Cut List (Week 3): Time to Let Go?

April 16, 2018

Players to cut or drop in week three of the 2018 MLB season. Connor McEleney lists overrated players and busts that should be waived in fantasy baseball.

Well, we’re three weeks into the season and the picture is starting to clear up. Players who started off the year cold are heating up (Andrew Benintendi, Mike Moustakas, Steve Pearce) while guys like Josh Harrison and Nick Ahmed are slowly regressing to the mean.

We can start confidently making add/drop decisions, but don’t expect to see the names of bonafide studs on these cuts lists. My add/drop philosophy is simple: cut average players on cold streaks and hold your studs.

The advice of these cut lists have held true through three weeks and I hope my suggestions have helped your teams. Want some waiver wire advice to make up for those necessary cuts? Make sure you check out our waiver wire blog for the best pickup consultation around.

Time to Move On

Orlando Arcia (SS, MIL) - .159 BA, 2 runs, 0 HR, 5 RBI, 0 SB

Drop in 10 or 12 team leagues, hold in dynasty

Why you should cut him: hitting at the bottom of the order, fantasy ceiling might be lower than real-life ceiling.

This is probably a case of a fantasy value and real life value not matching up. His current 77.2% contact rate is actual a career high, but he’s failing to make solid contact. His 8.6% line drive rate sits ten points below his career average and his 2.20 GB/FB is preventing him from knocking pitches out of the park. Arcia is far from a finished product, but I’d rather have a guy who’s guaranteed to produce right now.

Better SS options: Asdrubal Cabrera, Yangervis Solarte, Dansby Swanson

Kevin Kiermaier (OF, TB) - .105 BA, 3 runs, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 1 SB

Drop in 10 or 12 team leagues, hold in dynasty

Why you should cut him: experiencing anticipated BABIP regression, 2017 underlying metrics suggest he was lucky last year, 39.5% strikeout rate.

I’m going out on a limb with this cut suggestion considering Kiermaier’s a career 104 wRC+ batter and one of the best position players in the league. That .105 BA is just not fantasy viable right now, though. He’s locked into the second spot in the batting order, but until he cuts his strikeout rate in half and starts hitting liners again, he should be jettisoned in every standard league.

Better OF options: Aaron Hicks, Michael Brantley, Preston Tucker, David Peralta

Blake Parker (RP, LAA) - 5.40 ERA, 1 save, 7 Ks in 6.2 IP

Drop in all saves leagues

Why you should cut him: lost the closer job to Kenyan Middleton, there are much better non-closer RP options.

So much for the #LateRoundCloser movement that I was championing in mock drafts back in March. Blake Parker looked like a great final round pick in standard saves leagues until he gave up four hits, two earned runs, and two walks in his first two appearances of the year. The Angels quickly pulled the plug on Parker and promoted Kenyan Middleton to closer. If Parker isn’t closing games, he’s not worth rostering.

Better RP options: Josh Hader, Adam Ottavino, Brad Brach, Chris Devenski

Felix Hernandez (SP, SEA) - 6.60 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 8 Ks in three starts

Drop in all leagues

Why you should cut him: fantasy arrow pointing straight down, 4.80 K/9 and BB/9, 7.05 FIP, pitch velocity down across the board.

Everything on Hernandez’s profile screams drop candidate. His strikeout rate has plummeted, his peripheral ERA metrics are garbage, and his velocity is coming down. At this point, he’s only worth streaming against the worst teams in the league. The last thing you’d want to do is keep Hernandez while your league-mates snatch up ascending starters riding hot streaks. It’s tough to rebound from a mistake like that. It doesn’t matter how deep your leagues are, go ahead and drop him if he’s on one of your teams.  

Better SP options: Jakob Junis, Joey Lucchesi, Sean Manaea, Nick Pivetta, Steven Matz

Update on Last Week’s Cuts

Logan Morrison (1B, MIN)

• 2-for-19 (.105), 1 run, 0 HR, and 1 RBI since April 7
• This is exactly what I feared would happen. This type of production is not acceptable. Cut him.

Ryon Healy (1B/3B, SEA)

• Sprained his ankle on April 7, on 10-day DL
• We’ll see how Healy performs when he comes back, but I’m assuming he’ll continue to be average like he always has been.

Julio Teheran (SP, ATL)

• 7 Ks, 2 ER, 5 hits allowed, 4 BB on April 9 start
• He probably should’ve given up a few more runs judging by that 1.50 WHIP. Teheran is very hittable.

Chris Davis (1B, BAL)

• 2-for-14 (.142), 0 runs, 0 HR, 1 RBI since April 7
• No. Just no.

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