Sneaky Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Pickups, Buys: Week 16 - Hot Pitchers To Sustain Success?

July 14, 2026

Andy looks at three sneaky fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups for starting pitchers in Week 16 (2026) on hot streaks, and sees if they can sustain their success.

Welcome, RotoBallers, to another edition of our Sneaky Starting Pitcher Waiver Wire Column for Week 16 of the fantasy baseball season. Happy All-Star break to those who celebrate! Even though there will be no MLB action for a few days, that does not mean we will not take a look at some of the game's hottest starting pitchers.

As always, we will look at four hot starting pitchers (all under 25% rostered) and determine which ones managers should prioritize on the waiver wire. This week, we will look at two hot pitchers in St. Louis and an emerging high-end ratio stabilizer in the desert, among others.

Additionally, be sure to use discount code SMITH for 50% off any Premium Packages and gain access to our Team Sync platform with customized lineup tools, projections, and more based on your league settings. Let's dive in! Note - all advanced statistics referenced are updated as of Monday, July 13.

Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks

10% Rostered (Yahoo)

Starting off this week's column will be a pitcher who has bounced between the rotation and the bullpen. Pfaadt began the 2026 campaign in the starting rotation, making three starts before moving to the pen. Over these three starts (16 2/3 innings), the right-hander posted a 5.94 ERA with a hefty 1.38 WHIP.

He was then moved to the bullpen, where he continued to struggle in a long-relief role, posting a 5.91 ERA and 1.59 WHIP over a 21 1/3-inning stint.

However, since moving back to the starting rotation on June 30, the 27-year-old has looked far more comfortable in the majors. In his last three starts, Pfaadt has gone 3-0 with a sharp 1.72 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP. Over this 15 2/3-inning stretch, Pfaadt has struck out just 10 hitters but allowed only one walk, which has kept his ratios low.

Can managers expect him to maintain this trajectory after the All-Star break?

When looking at his pitch usage, managers can quickly spot a glaring difference that has begun to emerge in June and July. As shown in the visual below, the right-hander has drastically increased his fastball usage while reducing his sinker usage.

While not as drastic as a change in his fastballs, Pfaadt has also begun to lean more on his changeup among his secondaries. Since the start of July, his changeup has become his No. 2 pitch.

When looking at his overall season numbers, his fastball has been far more dominant than his sinker, which makes this change worth noting. Through the first half, his fastball has generated a .322 xwOBA, while this sinker has posted a higher .389 xwOBA.

However, on a per-month basis, the four-seamer has taken a massive step forward when deployed at a much higher rate. Over the last two months of data, Pfaadt's four-seamer has generated an xwOBA below .255.

The other pitch in his arsenal, his changeup, was near-perfect in June, carrying a .072 xwOBA. While it has risen to a .290 xwOBA in July, it has posted a solid 23.5% whiff rate and been a very effective No. 2 option.

While his 4.42 xERA on his cumulative Statcast page does not instill the most confidence in his long-term, the recent tweaks have begun to slow this number.

His high-end 49.7% ground-ball should offset his lower K% upside. Those needing a stable ratio stabilizer should look to target Pfaadt and start him with confidence in favorable settings.

Matthew Liberatore, St. Louis Cardinals

10% Rostered (Yahoo)

The first St. Louis Cardinals we will spotlight in this week's column is southpaw Matthew Liberatore. Liberatore actually caught the attention of fantasy managers back in spring training when he posted a near-perfect 1.80 ERA and 0.80 WHIP over 15 innings. This production carried into the first two starts of the season, where he allowed just two runs over 11 innings.

However, the southpaw quickly then took a step back, posting a 6.21 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP over his next 66 2/3 innings. During this noted skid, the left-hander struck out just66 hitters while walking 26 batters.

While this slump likely sent him to the waiver wire, the former top prospect has begun to turn the corner. Over his last three outings, Liberatore has logged 16 innings with a 2.25 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. He has totaled 18 punchouts while walking seven batters and, more importantly, not allowing a single home run.

Can Liberatore continue this success over the final months of the season?

Like Pfaadt, Liberatore also relies on a large pitch mix that includes four pitches thrown 10.0% of the time, with two additional options mixed in at least 4.0% of the time. As shown in the visual below, the only notable change Liberatore has made since his recent surge has been the increased deployment of his leader.

However, given that his slider has seen the most drastic increase, let's take a closer look.

Overall on the season, this pitch has generated a sharp .278 xwOBA (.308 wOBA) with a high 35.4% whiff rate. With his slider seeing increased usage, his primary pitch, the four-seam fastball, has slightly dipped in July.

While it carried a rough .406 xwOBA on the season, it has been far more productive as of late. In July, this pitch has a .299 xwOBA, which is on pace to be the best mark in a single month this season, and a stark drop from the .348 xwOBA it held back in June.

Even though his overall 5.23 xERA (13th percentile) is not the main concern, Liberatore's increased use of his slider and improving fastball could allow him to maintain some value in deeper leagues going forward.

Zebby Matthews, Minnesota Twins

20% Rostered (Yahoo)

The next pitcher we will spotlight was on a hot run but recently took a step back. However, given his surprisingly low rostership rate, he is still worth a close look.

Since serving up a hefty seven runs to the Detroit Tigers on June 11, Matthews quickly rounded into form. From June 16 through June 29, the right-hander logged 20 innings (three starts) to the tune of a 2.25 ERA and a1.05 WHIP. Over this three-start stretch, Matthews struck out 16 hitters while walking only three.

However, the Western California product is coming off two mediocre showings, where he allowed eight runs (in 10 2/3 innings) with a modest 8:6 K:BB, which is likely why he remains available in around 80% of Yahoo leagues.

Is this recent skid just a quick bump in the road for the further eighth-round pick?

His raw talent was never in question, as Matthews has continually been one of the better pitchers at the Triple-A level. Coming up through the Minnesota system, his elite command made him a top-tier target as he was expected to be a top source for WHIP. However, he has yet to translate to the majors consistently, with an overall 5.43 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over 184 MLB innings.

When looking at his pitch usage below, managers can see that, despite his inconsistency, Matthews has continued to deploy a similar repertoire, with his four-seamer and slider leading the way, while he occasionally leans on his changeup over his cutter as his No. 3 option.

Over his last two innings (both in July)m, his primary option, his four-seamer, has gone about it unluckily in the box score. This pitch has generated a .441 xwOBA, which is still high, but is nearly 10 points higher than the surface-level .538 wOBA.

On the season, his four-seamer has generated a .368 xwOBA with a solid 12.5% whiff rate. However, the most impressive component of his profile is his two-breaking balls. His slider (his No. 2 option) has posted a .276 xwOBA with a dominant 35.9% whiff rate. His curveball has carried an even lower .171 xwOBA with a sharp 42.0% whiff rate.

Zebby Matthews, Dirty 87mph Slider. 😨 pic.twitter.com/Qippik5T9J

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 30, 2026

While his inability to keep the ball in the yard (14 home runs allowed in 11 starts) will likely be his undoing, his raw talent is worth stashing on your bench. Matthews' elite command (65.% walk rate) and emerging secondaries can provide managers with a stable WHIP and above-average strikeout totals, especially in favorable settings.

Kyle Leahy, St. Louis Cardinals

15% Rostered (Yahoo)

Rounding out this week's column is another Cardinals pitcher in Kyle Leahy. Leahy appeared in this column last month but has continued to find success, making him worth a deeper look.

Since allowing three runs back on June 17, the right-hander has been among the top pitchers in baseball. Over his most recent 19 1/3 innings (four starts), Leahy has posted a dominant 0.47 ERA with a 0.83 WHIP. During this noted surge, Leahy has struck out 16 hitters while walking only seven, with just one earned run allowed.

Prior to this massive improvement, Leahy posted a much higher 5.92 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP over his last 24 1/3 innings. While his underlying metrics for the season do not inspire much confidence, should managers look to pick up one of baseball's top-performing pitchers ahead of the second half?

While Matthews has not made many prominent tweaks to the pitch mix, Leahy has made similar tweaks to the first two names on our list, which could explain his recent improvements. When looking at the visual below, managers can see that the 29-year-old has slowly begun to lower his fastball usage (four-seamer) and instead is treating his slider as a near "1B" pitch.

First, let's take a close look at his four-seamer, which was once deployed above 30.0% of the time in the opening months of the season. This season, this pitch has not been very effective, carrying a .431 xwOBA and a similar .419 wOBA on the surface. When looking at this pitch's production on a per-month basis, little improvement is evident, even with lower usage.

As noted in the chart below, his xwOBA on his four-seamer has still remained very high in June and July.

The other pitch to note is his slider, which has seen increased usage, especially in July.

Unlike his four-seamer, this pitch shows far more positive metrics, suggesting Leahy could remain on the fantasy radar in the second half. His slider has seen its underlying xwOBA steadily decline each month, even as it has taken on a much higher workload. In July, this pitch has generated a .249 xwOBA so far, the best mark this season.

Additionally, even as it improves, it has maintained a +18.0% whiff rate in each of the last three months, which keeps the door open for a modest downside.

While those looking at his cumulative stats profile and seeing his hefty 5.34 xERA and .275 xBA (both of which sit in the 11th percentile) may not consider picking up Leahy, his recent tweaks to his pitch mix are worth noting. While we should not expect him to maintain a sub-1.00 ERA pace, his increased slider usage has put him firmly on the streaming radar.

Those needing a replacement starter after the All-Star break can do far worse than picking up one of the hottest pitchers in baseball.

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