Why Ameer Abdullah is a Big Sleeper Running Back for 2015

It was no surprise that the Detroit Lions allowed Reggie Bush to walk in free agency. Joique Bell did the heavy duty work and Theo Riddick proved himself just as effective in the passing game, averaging 5 catches for 53 yards in the 5 games that Bush missed. Despite having Bell and Riddick around, the Detroit Lions decided to use their second round pick on Ameer Abdullah, making him the 4th RB taken in the 2015 draft.

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Abdullah is a complete back that showed the ability to handle a full workload while attending the University of Nebraska. He averaged over 19 carries a game while also catching at least 20 passes in each of his three seasons as starter.Those two skills make Abdullah a real threat to the touches of both Joique Bell and Theo Riddick. Not to mention an NFL team is not drafting a guy in the second round unless they think he can make a significant impact to their team.

Joique Bell Isn’t a Lock to Lead the Lions in Carries

Joique Bell burst onto the scene with a 50 catch RB3 season in 2012. He now enters his 4th season in which he’ll actually see time on the field yet he will be 29 by the time the 2015 season starts. 29 isn’t troubling in the sense that he hasn’t had years of 200+ carries like other backs the same age (Marshawn Lynch) but it definitely is troubling to read about a 29-year old back who has already had knee and achilles surgeries during the offseason.

Then you have to consider the fact that Joique just hasn’t been that efficient as a ball carrier over the past two seasons. On 389 rushes, he has averaged just 3.9 yards per carry. That puts him 22nd of 25 backs with at least 300 total carries over the past two seasons. That is right behind Zac Stacy and just ahead of Ben Tate, Steven Jackson, and Trent Richardson. Unsurprisingly, none of those guys are expected to get the most carries for their team in 2015. Not many backs can put up two consecutive 3.9 YPC seasons and get another chance to be the primary guy.

Bell's seat is hot. He should be the starter in week one but I wouldn’t completely rule out the possibility that Abdullah overtakes him as early as the preseason. Assuming Joique Bell does top the depth chart one must wonder whether he could survive another sluggish start. Last year he had 40 carries for 120 yards after three games. The Lions didn’t really have a choice but to keep going with Joique last year. Injury prone Reggie Bush had an opportunity when Joique Bell missed the fifth game of the season but Bush himself got hurt and missed the following game as well several other games over the remainder of the season. As for Theo Riddick, even in college he was primarily a receiving back and has a mere 2.6 YPC on 29 NFL carries.

That’s where Abdullah comes in. Joique Bell will not be getting any passes for inefficient play this season. If he struggles early on, you can be sure the Lions will give some of his carries to their second round rookie. If Abdullah puts up better numbers, the touches will keep going further and further in his favor.

The Lions Offensive Line Should be Better

The Lions dealt with some injuries and poor play along the offensive line last season which surely played a big role in why they ranked 30th in yards per carry. Don’t think this is an offensive line void of talent though as the Lions return some very good young players and got rid of aging ineffective center Dominic Raiola. They also used their first pick on guard Laken Tomlinson.

The Lions have a very decent left tackle in Riley Reiff and hope to have LaAdrian Waddle ready to go at right tackle. Waddle started 10 games at RT last year and Pro Football Focus gave him a +1.9 grade. In the 7 games (including 1 playoff game) started by two other players, Pro Football Focus graded the Lions at -7.5 at RT. LaAdrian Waddle tore his ACL in week 15 so he may not be ready for the start of the season but will be a major plus when healthy.

At guard, the Lions have Larry Warford and rookie Laken Tomlinson. Warford has received positive grades from PFF in each of his two seasons. Tomlinson will replace Rob Sims who was 30/31 last year and had seen his PFF grades steadily decline. Given the successful draft picks of Lions GM Martin Mayhew along the offensive line in Reiff (1st round) and Warford (3rd), we should expect good things out of Tomlinson.

Lastly, the Lions need to replace longtime center Dominic Raiola. They did acquire former Broncos center/guard Manny Ramirez in a draft day trade but the expected starter is another of Mayhew’s draft picks in 2014 third Rounder Travis Swanson. Swanson spent more time at guard last year but his natural position is center where he was drafted as Raiola’s eventual replacement. He had one start at center and played a mere 89 snaps at the position but did receive a +1.3 grade.

None of the expected starters along the line are stars at this point but I don’t see a weak link. If Swanson and Tomlinson end up being good players, this is a really good offensive line. Even if they are just average this line should be considerably better than it was last year. That’s great news for Lions running backs.

Abdullah’s ADP Makes Him a Bargain

Ultimately, how much you value Ameer Abdullah hinges on what you think of Joique Bell. I see a 29 year old back with a 3.9 YPC returning from offseason surgeries. That makes me really like Abdullah who currently has a FantasyPros ADP of 85th overall at RB33. A lot of people expect Abdullah to only grab the pass-catching role but I see a guy whose skills are that of a primary back and whose draft position indicates the Lions very much expect him to have a significant impact. I’d go so far to say that I will be surprised if Abdullah isn’t the lead back by midway through the season.

At the very least even if you like Joique Bell at his current ADP of 56th overall it makes a lot of sense to grab Abdullah as well despite having a higher price than most handcuffs. The Lions got decent production out of their RB2 last year. Combine Reggie Bush’s 11 games with Theo Riddick in the 5 games that Bush missed gives you a back that had 842 total yards and four touchdowns. That alone would make Abdullah a fair value as the RB33 and his upside is much greater than that.

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