Many of the headlines surrounding the Boston Red Sox’s pitching rotation have to do with David Price. After all, he did receive the largest contract in the history of baseball for a pitcher. However, behind Price is a group of young guns (and I guess Clay Buchholz) that are looking to make their mark in Major League Baseball and that deserve some of the headlines as well. One of these young guns is Eduardo Rodriguez.

In July of 2014, the Red Sox and the Orioles agreed to a swap that would send Andrew Miller south to Baltimore and Rodriguez up north to Boston. The Venezuelan lefty did not make a start in the Major Leagues until 2015 season, where he would find himself heavily relied upon as a lefty in a relatively weak, Jon Lester-less rotation.

Eduardo Rodriguez’s 2015 profile looks awesome for a rookie. In 121.2 IP, Rodriguez arrived at a 3.85 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a good-looking 18.8 K%. That ERA was 9.8% better than the league average. Most rookies cannot even approach the league average with their ERA, and Rodriguez beat it by almost 10%.

2015 Year In Review

Rodriguez began turning heads instantly in the 2015 season. Facing the Texas Rangers, the Minnesota Twins, and the Baltimore Orioles in his first three career starts respectively, the only earned run he allowed would come in the form of a solo home run from Brian Dozier. Other than that tiny blemish, Rodriguez struck out 21 batters and allowed just eight hits. He began to enter “too good to be true” territory until one fateful night in June of 2015 at Fenway Park.

The Toronto Blue Jays had not yet made their blockbuster trade for Troy Tulowitzki, but they still had what was considered one of the more fearsome lineups in baseball. Rodriguez was given a formidable task and unfortunately, the wheels came off; he surrendered eight hits and walked three batters while being tagged for nine earned runs in just 4.2 IP. Ouch.

To gain an understanding of what we can make of Eduardo Rodriguez in 2016, we really need to evaluate his performance after this catastrophe against Toronto. From his next start on 6/19/15 against the Kansas City Royals through the end of the season, Rodriguez went 8-5 with a 3.92 ERA. He would have just three more hiccups in the season, allowing six earned runs to the Orioles, seven earned runs to the Angels, and eight earned runs to the Marlins. Other than those bumps in the road, Rodriguez held teams to under three earned runs in 12 out of 14 starts.

In those 17 games after the Toronto debacle, batters hit .266 against Rodgriguez. He used his fastball 68.3% of the time with an average velocity of 94.2mph. His slider was used 11.3% of the time at an average velocity of 86.3mph, and his changeup 19.4% of the time at an average velocity of 87.0mph. These splits helped Eduardo Rodriguez earn an 18.1 K% and a 7.10 K/9, and it is safe to say that he missed a lot of bats.

2016 Fantasy Outlook

All of this seems positive for Eduardo Rodriguez’s 2016 outlook, so we have to wonder why he is classified as a sleeper and not as a solid SP option. Well, the experience is definitely a factor and we definitely have to monitor Rodriguez for a sophomore slump. However the more concerning aspect of Eduardo Rodriguez’s rookie season was the observed pitch-tipping by both the Red Sox and by other teams. Red Sox coaches have pretty much admitted to pitch-tipping causing the Toronto nightmare in his fourth start of the season and they saw some of the same problems in the other three starts when he gave up runs in bunches to the Orioles, Angels, and Marlins. Mainly, the Sox looked to Rodriguez’s head and glove positioning as the main culprit.

When all of the pitch-tipping controversy picked up over the course of the 2015 season, Rodriguez kept claiming that it was a quick fix and that it was no longer and issue. He definitely backed up his claim; over the course of his last seven starts, Rodriguez compiled a 2.08 ERA and 35 strikeouts in these seven games.

It’s probably safe to say that the pitch tipping is a thing of the past. If it were still an issue, he would probably be starting the season on the farm. Eduardo Rodriguez is definitely towards the top of the list when it comes to SP sleepers. Of all the second-year pitchers on the market, Rodriguez possesses potentially the highest upside out there.

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