2B Targets and Avoids

Andy's second base (2B) fantasy baseball sleepers, busts for 2025 drafts. His fantasy baseball second base draft targets and avoids based on current ADPs.

Hello RotoBallers! In this piece, we will analyze the current average draft position (ADP) on NFBC drafts and identify which second baseman we should target or avoid at their current draft position.

While fantasy players should not follow ADP too closely and base their entire strategy on it, it does provide a solid benchmark for where players typically get selected.

Today, we will look at five second basemen to either draft or avoid in fantasy drafts based on their current market value. Be sure to follow @RotoBallerMLB for more league-winning offseason content, and message me @A_SMITH_FS with questions on how to navigate the current ADP market.

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Second Base Fantasy Baseball Targets

Jose Altuve, Houston Astros

ADP: 56.5
RotoBaller Ranking: 57 (-0.5) 

Jose Altuve has been one of the top options at the position throughout most of his career and remains a top target heading into 2025. Last summer, the 34-year-old posted a strong .295/.350/.439 line with 20 home runs and 22 stolen bases. He added 31 doubles with 94 runs and 61 RBI.

Even though this was a decline from his 2023 production (.311/.393/.522), fantasy managers should not be afraid to select him at his current ADP.

In 2024, he generated a higher xBA (.265) and launch-angle sweet-spot rate (35.4%) compared to his 2023 production. In addition, he held a near identical 31.2% hard-hit rate and 17.4% K rate.

Altuve also produced better against offspeed and breaking pitches compared to 2023. This past season, Altuve generated a higher xSLG and xwOBA on both types of pitches in relation to his 2023 production.

Lastly, Altuve also increased his fly-ball rate by four percentage points and lowered his ground-ball rate by six points.

While the 34-year-old will produce modest RBI totals as a leadoff hitter, he should continue to be a valuable contributor in the other four standard categories and carry solid value in points leagues, given his above-average strikeout rate.

Jordan Westburg, Baltimore Orioles

ADP: 93.6
RotoBaller Ranking: 107 (-13.4)

The Mississippi State product is my favorite to target for the position. Last summer, Jordan Westburg enjoyed a breakout campaign as he posted a .260/.312/.481 line with 18 long balls and six swiped bags across 107 contests. He tallied 57 runs and 67 RBI batting in the heart of a potent Baltimore lineup. However, his underlying metrics suggest Westburg could see his fantasy stock soar in 2025.

Under the hood, the 25-year-old boasted a stellar .281 xBA and a .491 xSLG, which placed him in the 92nd percentile. He also generated an excellent .353 xwOBA, an 11.1% barrel rate, and a 46.1% hard-hit rate, which were all within the 77th percentile among qualified hitters.

I can't stop drafting #Birdland Jordan Westburg. 💥

90th %ile xBA/xSLG, .264/.314/.481, 18 HRs (more to come w/ Camden Yards tweaks)
80th %ile barrel/hard-hit rates
92nd %ile sprint speed 🚀🔥
FIRE ME UP (93.6 ADP @TheReal_NFC )#FantasyBaseball pic.twitter.com/5Ht2BAY9QC

— Andy Smith (@A_Smith_FS) January 27, 2025

His lone blemish was his poor eye at the plate, which lowers his value in points formats. He draws walks at a low 4.9% rate while striking out 21.7% of the time.

Westburg did most of his damage against fastballs in 2024, generating an eye-catching .558 xSLG against them, a significant increase from the .400 xSLG he posted in his rookie campaign. He also raised his fly-ball rate by five points in 2024.

The infielder also placed in the 91st percentile in sprint speed, which is surprising given his low stole base total. Expect significant regression in that category as well this summer.

If that was not enough, the right-handed bat should enjoy a further power surge with new modifications to Camden Yards. The Orioles will bring the left field wall back in, which should further increase his HR upside. He is a steal at his current ADP.

Brandon Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays

ADP: 239.56
RotoBaller Ranking: 233 (+6)

My final second baseman to highlight on your draft board is Brandon Lowe. Lowe's name was near trade discussions throughout the offseason, but it appears the Tampa Bay Rays will opt to hold their second baseman until the trade deadline. This is an excellent sign for his fantasy stock, primarily due to where the Rays will call home in 2025.

The Rays will play their home games at George M. Steinbrenner Field, as their home park, Tropicana Field, was damaged during Hurricane Milton. This park has the exact dimensions as Yankee Stadium, one of the most favorable parks for left-handed bats.

Last season, Lowe hit 20+ HRs for the second straight campaign. He launched 21 long balls with five stolen bases and a .244/.311/.473 slash line. Lowe tallied 19 doubles with 56 runs and 58 RBI.

Under the hood, the infielder generated a strong 12.4% barrel rate (84th percentile), 39.6% LA sweet-spot rate (94th percentile), and 44.7% hard-hit rate (71st percentile), which, given the improved home venue, point towards an even stronger 2025.

In 2024, Lowe also lowered his ground-ball rate by five points and raised his fly-ball rate by one point compared to his 2023 rates.

However, Lowe has slightly more risk in points leagues, given his hefty 26.2% K rate and modest 7.8% walk rate.

Given his proven track record as a power hitter, Lowe could return to the 30+ HR upside he carried during the 2021 campaign, calling George M. Steinbrenner Field home this summer.

Second Base Fantasy Baseball Avoids

Luis Garcia Jr., Washington Nationals

ADP: 119.5
RotoBaller Ranking: 126 (-6.5)

My first second baseman to avoid at ADP is Luis Garcia Jr. Garcia enjoyed a breakout season in 2024 as he posted a .282/.318/.444 line with 18 HRs and 22 SBs. He added 25 doubles, 58 runs, and 70 RBI. He struck out at a solid 16.3% rate (82nd percentile) and generated a 41.7% hard-hit rate, slightly above average.

However, going off the board as the No. 7 second baseman in NFBC drafts is too expensive, given that he typically retreated to the bench against left-handed pitching last season. While that may change heading into 2025, drafters must pay a decent price for a player who may not be an everyday bat.

In addition, Statcast graded his arm strength in the 13th percentile, which could also force him out of the lineup from a defensive standpoint.

While Garcia could provide value at this ADP, given his potential to contribute to all five standard categories, his risk of not being an everyday player does not warrant a selection at this price.

Brice Turang, Milwaukee Brewers

ADP: 136.4
RotoBaller Ranking: 162 (-25.6)

My other second baseman to avoid is Brice Turang. While there is no doubt Turang is an elite speed producer, as he swiped 50 bags for the third-most last season, he is a glorified one-category contributor.

Turang posted an underwhelming .254/.316/.349 slash line with just seven long balls, 72 runs, and 59 RBI. He generated a poor 2.4% barrel rate, 29.7% hard-hit rate, and a .340 xSLG, which were within the 14th percentile or lower among active hitters.

No Brice Turang for me at 136 ADP on @TheReal_NFC. 🚫 #ThisIsMyCrew
Elite speed (50 SB) but weak power:
2.4% barrel, .340 xSLG, 29.7% hard-hit. 🙃
Too one-dimensional to justify the draft spot.#FantasyBaseball pic.twitter.com/eJaj6IEuwA

— Andy Smith (@A_Smith_FS) January 28, 2025

While he did show a strong eye at the plate (17.0% K rate), his lack of power makes him a pure one-category contributor.

In addition, with Willy Adames now in San Francisco, his run production could also drop significantly as Adames led the team with 112 RBI last summer.

If you are desperate for speed at this point in the draft, Turang is not an awful selection. Instead, I would target several starting pitchers in this range with much higher upside, such as Jared Jones, Bryan Woo, Jack Flaherty, or Spencer Strider (elbow).

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