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Justin's 12-team College Football Playoff prediction ahead of Week 5 of the 2025 college football season. Projections for all 12 teams, including Ohio State and Miami.
Week 5 College Football Playoff Projections
The top nine seeds in this week’s College Football Playoff bracket are the same nine teams as last week, albeit in a slightly different order, but the 10th and 11th seeds have changed hands.
Last week’s No. 10 seed was Illinois, but the team’s playoff chances are gone after a 63-10 loss to Indiana on Saturday. I mean, technically, the Illini could win out and get in as a one-loss team, but the loss to Indiana showed why this team is unlikely to run the table at this point. Even with the advantage of hosting both USC and Ohio State, those games feel like defeats. The No. 11 spot shifted as well. What was that shift? Read on for the latest College Football Playoff bracket projection.
12. South Florida
Last Week: 12th
I’m sticking with South Florida here, especially after Tulane’s 45-10 loss this week to Ole Miss, but the only real thing I’m confident in at the moment is that an American Conference team will be the No. 12 seed unless something weird happens. South Florida has wins over Boise State and Florida, but a blowout loss to Miami leaves little room for error. Still, the Bulls just need to win the conference, and they’re in.
But there are some chances to knock South Florida from the top spot, specifically North Texas on Oct. 10 and Memphis on Oct. 25. Losses there could put the Mean Green or Tigers in the driver’s seat for the conference title, though ultimately it will all come down to the American title game.
11. Texas Tech
Last Week: Not Ranked
Here’s what I wrote last week about the Big 12 playoff bid: “The winner of [Texas Tech vs. Utah] will have a big check on their resume and will more than likely take this spot over next week.” After three quarters, though, Tech only led 10-3, and I was starting to doubt both teams. Maybe Iowa State was still the best team in the Big 12 and would end up winning the conference after all?
Then the Red Raiders scored 24 in the fourth quarter with backup quarterback Will Hammond in the game. We can probably say that the Big 12 race is Tech’s to lose now, especially since the team doesn’t even play Iowa State or TCU, setting it up to cruise to the Big 12 title game against, well…probably one of those two teams.
10. Indiana
Last Week: Not Ranked
Indiana moves all the way up into the top 10 after absolutely destroying Illinois. The Hoosiers hadn’t faced strong competition, so we weren’t sure what this team could really do, but a 63-10 win over then No. 9 Illinois is hard to ignore.
This spot would have gone to Oklahoma, but a John Mateer injury puts that team in a tough spot. He could miss up to a month after hand surgery, which likely means missing tough games against Texas and South Carolina, as well as potentially missing the Ole Miss game.
9. Texas
Last Week: Ninth
Arch Manning broke out of his slump in a 55-0 win over Sam Houston, throwing for 309 yards and three touchdowns while rushing for a pair of scores. Sure, it was against an 0-4 Bearkats team, but maybe that’s just what the doctor ordered.
Texas’ playoff case also gets a bump because of the Mateer injury. The Red River Rivalry was set to be a huge test for the Horns next month that could have put a major damper on the team’s playoff chances if Oklahoma had won that game, but without Mateer, Texas should be heavy favorites.
8. Texas A&M
Last Week: Eighth
The Aggies were off this week, but remain at No. 8 thanks to their huge road win against Notre Dame back on Sept. 13.
The schedule will get tough later this season with road games against LSU, Missouri, and Texas, but for now, the Aggies might be in good shape for a few weeks as they’re at home against Auburn, Mississippi State, and Florida.
7. Florida State
Last Week: Seventh
Florida State played Kent State this week, winning 66-10. There’s not much you can learn about a team from a game like that, but the Seminoles’ season-opening win over Alabama remains one of the best wins by any team this season.
Florida State only has one more ranked team on its schedule, so even a loss on Oct. 4 against Miami shouldn’t knock the Seminoles out of the playoff picture as long as the team can win the rest of its games.
6. LSU
Last Week: Fifth
Dropping an undefeated SEC team down to sixth feels wrong, but I just think Oregon is better positioned right now.
LSU is coming off a 56-10 win over Southeastern Louisiana, but now plays four of its next five games against ranked teams, with three of those being on the road. The non-ranked team in that span is a good South Carolina squad. LSU hasn’t proven yet that it can hold up against a stretch like that.
5. Oregon
Last Week: Sixth
The Ducks keep winning, knocking off Oregon State 41-7 this week to move to 4-0. The team has scored at least 34 points in each game this season.
The first real test for the Ducks is this weekend as the team goes on the road to face No. 3 Penn State. That game will have major playoff implications. Neither team is falling out with a loss, but the winner will be in great shape in the race for one of the four bye weeks.
4. Penn State
Last Week: Third
Penn State is 3-0 but feels extremely untested, with the team beating Nevada, FIU, and Villanova. The first of three real tests comes this week against Oregon, where we’ll see if Drew Allar and company can outscore a prolific Ducks offense.
Win that game and Penn State’s path to a bye week is easy: beat all the unranked teams on the remaining schedule and go at least 1-1 against Ohio State and Indiana and you’ll be a top-four seed.
3. Miami
Last Week: Fourth
It wasn’t Carson Beck’s best game, but the Miami defense stepped up last weekend, holding Florida quarterback D.J. Lagway to 61 passing yards in a 26-7 win over Florida.
The Hurricanes are 4-0 and have now won games by their offense and their defense. The team is off this weekend, but if they can go on the road on Oct. 4 and beat Florida State, then it will be time to start talking about an undefeated season for Miami.
2. Georgia
Last Week: Second
I didn’t want to move Georgia down after a bye week, considering its last win was over a very good Tennessee team, so the Bulldogs stick at No. 2 for now, though they probably need a convincing win over Alabama this week to avoid dropping to third.
Regardless of where you put them, it’s clear at the moment that Georgia is on its way to a first-round bye. Things could always change with four ranked teams left on the schedule, but this team is playing very good football right now.
1. Ohio State
Last Week: First
Ohio State gets the benefit of the doubt until it loses. The Buckeyes have the No. 2 scoring defense in the country, allowing 5.3 points per game, including giving up just seven to Texas back in the season opener.
The team’s Oct. 11 game against Illinois looks a lot easier now that the Illini were just blown out by Indiana, and the Penn State game in November is in Columbus. It’s easy to see this team run the tables, though that season-ending road game against Michigan seems like a good spot for the Buckeyes to finally be tripped up.
First-Round CFP Matchups
- No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 Oregon
- No. 11 Texas Tech at No. 6 LSU
- No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Florida State
- No. 9 Texas at No. 8 Texas A&M
