Top RB Sleepers for PPR Leagues in 2015

Roy Helu - Fantasy Pros ADP RB51

Roy Helu moved to the Raiders this past offseason and will be holding the role of backup behind Latavius Murray, but he is definitely the best receiving back on that team and offers sneaky value. In three full seasons used mostly as a third down back in Washington, Helu averaged 40 catches a season and we could be seeing an increased role in Oakland, especially if Murray doesn’t pan out.

In the past, Helu has flashed the skills of an elite pass-catching back. According to Pro Football Focus last year he was either first or second in these each of these categories: Catch percentage (A fantastic 95.5%), Yards per catch and yards after catch. With an increased target volume in Oakland, Helu could vault himself into possible PPR RB2 territory or at least be a nice high floor flex.

Last year in Oakland, Darren McFadden saw 44 targets - the same number of targets Helu saw in Washington - despite a poor 5.9 yards per reception that ranked 50th of 57 running backs that played at least 25% of their team’s snaps. Even with a new set of coaches in Oakland, I expect Derek Carr to heavily utilize his new back with pass-catching skills far superior to the worn-down duo of Darren McFadden and Maurice Jones-Drew.

While I do like Latavius Murray, it’s not like he has the primary back role locked down. Murray burst onto the scene with 4 carries for 112 yards and two scores against the Chiefs before suffering a concussion. When he came back he was at the top of the depth chart but he didn’t exactly impress. Over the final four games he averaged just 3.8 YPC though, in fairness, he did have to face some tough defenses.

It’s entirely possible that even if Murray is the starter in Week 1, Helu will get his chance as well. It’s not like Helu is lacking the athletic ability either; he has a 4.42 40 time with speed and agility scores in the 95th percentile or better according to Player Profiler. Despite being 3 inches shorter than Murray he is just 4 lbs lighter. At 5’11” 219 lbs he’s not exceptionally small like some might think he is just because he’s a receiving back. It’s well in his past at this point but Helu had a 4-game stretch with 20+ carries in 2011. He exceeded 130 total yards and 4.3+ YPC in three of those games so he has proven capable of handling a starter’s workload in the past. In 2012 Alfred Morris came along and Helu has had just two games with double-digit carries since, but it is worth noting he has four rushing touchdowns in those two games. I definitely like Helu as a PPR RB either way but this guy could be an even bigger steal than his current role suggests.

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Danny Woodhead - Fantasy Pros ADP RB43

This is a running back many PPR players are familiar with. Woodhead established himself as one of the best receiving backs in his first season as a Charger with a receiving line of 76-605-6. Unfortunately, last year he broke his fibula and wasn't given the chance to try and repeat as he missed almost the entire year. That, in combination with the fact he is now 30, has caused his ADP to tumble downward.

People may also be scared of Woodhead because the Chargers spent a first round pick on RB Melvin Gordon but I believe this actually goes in Woodhead’s favor. Melvin Gordon caught 19 passes his entire college career so he doesn’t look like a serious threat to steal work from Woodhead so early in his career. Even when Danny Woodhead caught 76 passes in 2013, Ryan Mathews had 26 catches as well so there is definitely room for Gordon and Branden Oliver to see some targets.

ESPN Chargers beat writer Eric Williams called Danny Woodhead one of the pleasant surprises of the offseason. Williams reported that despite coming back from his injuries Woodhead has flashed the quickness and elusiveness that made him so good in 2013. It’s really easy for me to like Woodhead because he could come up well short of his ‘13 numbers when he was the PPR RB13 and still provide a decent return on his current ADP. I don’t expect him to catch 76 balls again but 50-60 is still more than reasonable. Filling in for Woodhead last year Branden Oliver and Donald Brown combined for 82 targets and 65 receptions. Although Oliver did have a nice run last year I don’t think he plays a major role in the offense with the talent around him as good as it is and almost all of those 82 targets should head Woodhead’s way. If that’s the case there is no way he doesn’t beat his current ADP.

Woodhead isn’t likely to be the star PPR back he was in 2013 but at his current ADP (and that is for PPR leagues believe it or not) he doesn’t have to be. He just needs to provide solid flex value to make good on his draft position and he should have no problem doing that despite the concerns.

Charles Sims - Fantasy Pros ADP RB42

I especially like Sims because unlike the other backs listed, Sims has a real chance to be the primary back in Tampa Bay. Sims was an excellent pass-catching back in college where he caught at least 37 passes in all four of his college seasons. That includes a 70 catch season as a freshman in Houston’s high octane offense. The year he caught “just” 37 passes he missed three games.

Despite playing 100 fewer snaps than Doug Martin last year, Sims had considerably more success as a receiver with more targets, receptions (at a higher catch rate) and yards for a total of 19 catches for 190 yards. Sims did all of this in just eight games as a rookie coming off a broken ankle. It helps that Sims is capable of running routes when he's lined up as a wide receiver.

Remember how I said McFadden ranked 50th of 57 back in yards per catch earlier? Well Doug Martin was dead last in 57th at just 4.9 yards per catch. He wasn’t much better in 2013 at 5.5. There is really no excuse to be giving him targets when Charles Sims is around and doubled Martin’s yards per catch last year.

Sims is another player that Player Profiler metrics like. His best comp is DeMarco Murray and while I wouldn’t start expecting DeMarco Murray numbers out of Charles Sims, it’s certainly not a negative! At 6’0” 214 lbs his 4.48 40 yard dash time is pretty impressive. His speed and burst scores are also well above average.

Although Sims did not impress as a rusher last year, I believe that he can show more this year. There is no doubt that his preseason ankle injury was a serious setback. This is definitely one preseason position battle I’ll be watching very closely. Over a full healthy season he should be a very safe bet for 40+ receptions. If he wins the starting job I would expect 60+ catches with Andre Ellington-like upside as a player.

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