RADIO
In Week 3, we have awful matchups in terms of quarterbacks that are going to get slapped around by opposing defenses. Offensive lines around the league are still getting their feet under them, and quarterbacks are paying the price.
There will be a few guys on the negative matchup list that you're still starting. While they may get sacked, they'll be able to make up for that in other ways. In addition to QBs like this, you're going to see some faces that you haven't seen here before.
Facing a good defensive line doesn't automatically translate to a bad week for fantasy quarterbacks and vice versa. Just because you're matched up against a bad defensive line doesn't mean that your quarterback will have a good week. The bottom line though is that, if you're playing the odds, these are the ways you want to lean.
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Look Away Before It Gets Ugly
Russell Wilson vs New Orleans Saints
Throughout Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson's career, he has had miserable offensive line play. They've added some talent this offseason, but he's still getting hit a lot. Seattle ranks 30th in the NFL with eight sacks allowed, and they have an adjusted sack rate of 12.5 percent. That means that about every eight passing snaps, Wilson is getting sacked or forced into an intentional grounding penalty. In Week 3, that's probably not going to stop.
The New Orleans Saints lost quarterback Drew Brees, but, on defense, they're still chugging along. They lead the NFL with nine sacks, and their adjusted sack rate is 13.4 percent. They're getting sacks and pressure on the quarterback even more frequently than Wilson is getting taken down. This is a bad matchup, but Wilson will still be able to move the ball.
Deshaun Watson @ Los Angeles Chargers
The Los Angeles Chargers Defense has been more bark than bite to this point in the season. Entering Week 3, they have just two sacks as a team. Edge rushers Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram each have one. Despite all of the defensive talent, the numbers aren't showing that. In Week 3, they can finally get back on track. The Houston Texans have allowed an NFL-high 10 sacks through the first two games, and they have an adjusted sack rate of 14.2 percent. That's over double the NFL average of 6.8 percent.
Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson is surrounded by offensive talent. His wide receivers and running backs have done a good job making plays for him, and, when he has time to get the ball out, he makes good plays. In Week 3, he's going to get hit, and he's going to get taken down likely at least three times. Similar to Wilson, you're likely going to start him despite this, but, if your league gives negative points for sacks or sack yardage, it is something to consider.
Joe Flacco @ Green Bay Packers
To this point in the season, the Green Bay Packers have had a defense that has looked phenomenal. Through two weeks, they're allowing an average of just 9.5 points per game. The last time they had a mark that good was in the 2001 season when they allowed an average of just 3.0 points per game. The key to their early-season success has been their pass rush. They've only totaled six sacks thus far on the year, but they've totaled 16 quarterback hits per Pro Football Reference. They're averaging eight hits on the quarterback per game.
Denver Broncos quarterback Joe Flacco is far from mobile. With the athletic ends that the Packers are sending at him, he's going to have to move off of his spot regularly. His offensive line has given up five sacks on the year, and they're in the middle of the pack with a 6.0 percent adjusted sack rate. The Chicago Bears front only got two sacks on him last week as they were winded because of the altitude. In Lambeau, they won't have the same advantage.
That's More Like It
Daniel Jones @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
In all likelihood, you're not starting New York Giants rookie quarterback Daniel Jones. However, you may be going to be trotting him out this week. If you do, you have some upside that he has a good matchup in terms of his offensive line vs the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive front. On the year, the Giants have allowed just two sacks, and Jones has the athleticism to escape the pocket if he is pressured out.
On the Buccaneers side, they have totaled just four sacks, and their adjusted sack rate is just 4.9 percent. They're not harassing the quarterback very often, and it's unlikely that they keep that up this week. Per Pro Football Focus, the Buccaneers' best defensive lineman is Vita Vea in the middle. They don't have a ton of production outside of him which could come back to bite them on Sunday.
Matthew Stafford @ Philadelphia Eagles
Coming into the year, the stock on Detroit Lions' quarterback Matthew Stafford was falling due to reports that the offense was going to put more of an emphasis on the running game. Through two games, they're more balanced, but Stafford is still putting up plenty of yards. The Philadelphia Eagles Defense has been ravaged by injuries already, and they're taking on a Lions line that has allowed just three sacks thus far in the season.
For Philadelphia, they are second-to-last in the NFL in sacks. They're tied for 31st with just two on the season, and their adjusted sack rate is 31st at just 2.4 percent. They'll be playing at home, but this is a game that has more shootout than slugfest potential. As a result, I think Stafford puts up a solid game with less pressure in his face than he saw against the Chargers in Week 2.
Kirk Cousins vs Oakland Raiders
After dealing with the Packers last week, Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins is probably breathing a sigh of relief that he can play against the Oakland Raiders in Week 3. Oakland has five sacks on the season, but they're just 20th in the league in adjusted sack rate at 6.3 percent. The Raiders also have a softer run defense which will allow the Vikings to get the running game established with running back Dalvin Cook.
The Raiders totaled just 13 sacks last year. They're well on their way to passing that mark this season, but Cousins has an offensive line that can give them fits. Cousins struggles under pressure, as we saw last week, but he should have no problems in that department this week. He's only gotten sacked twice this season, so, even when the pressure is near him, he's getting the ball out which is something you like to see.
