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RotoBaller's top PGA player props, best bets, and matchup picks for the 2026 RBC Canadian Open. Get commission-free odds and market edges with Novig golf picks.
Hello golf fans, it's great to be with you again here at Rotoballer! Following a second sudden death playoff in two weeks to crown a champion at Jack's Place, the PGA Tour heads north of the border for the first of two prestigious national Opens. Though Canada's championship won't boast the same star power as we'll see next week at Shinnecock, the third-oldest tournament on the schedule comes with it's own prestige -- and a penchant for close finishes.
This week's picks will all be using the odds on the most unique and fastest-growing sports prediction sites -- Novig. If you're not familiar with the site, I'll explain how it works and provide some of my favorite wagers to place on Novig. There are lots of juicy numbers available!
As always, make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your season-long, DFS, and betting needs. Now, here are some of my favorite PGA bets and props for the 2026 Memorial Tournament.
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What is Novig?
Novig is one of the fastest-growing peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. On Novig, users trade directly with each other, without the "vig" typically associated with a sportsbook. The vig is the fee sportsbooks charge you to use their services. It's a hidden cost that can be found in the odds that are being offered on each side of a specific bet. When a book offers -110 odds on both sides of a bet, it is keeping close to 10% of every bettor's wager, regardless of whether you win or lose.
On Novig, users trade with each other on the outcomes of sporting events, similarly to the way that investors trade on the stock market. But instead of having to beat the books, you just have to win against other users -- there's no commission kept by the site.
Users can bet on most traditional sports markets, including moneyline bets, spreads, totals, tournament matchups, player props, parlays, and futures!
Novig operates with two virtual currencies. Novig coins can be wagered for fun and to test out strategies, while Novig cash can be wagered on all markets and then redeemed for real cash prizes.
Access to Novig is widespread; it's now accessible in 36 U.S. states.
How Does Novig Work?
Since users are not playing against the books, there is an opportunity to make more money per wager that you win, and users can usually find better values on bets (in terms of the prices being offered) than on traditional sportsbooks.
There are no oddsmakers; users dictate their own odds. You can either accept the odds that the market is offering or set your own odds.
If you set your own odds, another user has to accept them on the other side for the bet to be activated.
Users drive the market, not the sportsbook or oddsmakers!
PGA Tournament Matchup Picks
All odds are from Novig and were accurate/available as of 6/10/2026. Odds are subject to change.
Tom Kim (-136 at Novig) OVER Stephan Jaeger
Both of my matchups this week will be focused on picking on the same deficiency: driving accuracy. Although TPC Toronto features some of the wider landing areas on the PGA Tour, there is a stiff penalty to be found for those who cannot routinely position themselves off the tee.
Last year, each missed fairway cost the field more than four-tenths of a stroke at Osprey Valley -- a top-15 mark on Tour. And based on recent form, few players in this field appear more vulnerable to that challenge than Stephan Jaeger.
Not only is Jaeger hitting just 48.52% of his fairways this season (156th among 161 qualified players), but his misses have also been among the most severe. Through the first five months of 2026, the German has missed the fairway by an average of 41 feet, the second-highest mark on the PGA Tour. That combination leaves him particularly exposed to the dense rough that serves as TPC Toronto's primary defense.
Driving accuracy isn't the only area where Kim holds a significant advantage, either. The 23-year-old owns the second-best approach numbers in this field over his last 24 rounds while also ranking inside the top 10 in Good Drive Percentage. Jaeger, meanwhile, ranks 90th in Strokes Gained: Approach during that same span and has lost strokes with his irons in four of his last five starts.
With advantages off the tee, in overall approach play, and across both of this week's key proximity ranges (100-150 yards and 200-plus yards), the ball-striking projection is simply too lopsided to ignore at the current price.
Couple in a T4 finish in the 2024 rendition of Canada's Open, and Kim edges the comfort factor north of the border as well. I think this is as good a spot as we've seen for Tom to resurrect his 2026 campaign. I make him north of a -150 favorite straight up vs Jaeger.
Max McGreevy (-116 at Novig) OVER Taylor Moore
In another classic battle of metronomic ball-striking versus short-game artistry, I'm siding with the former.
Max McGreevy enters the week as one of the most underrated tee-to-green players in the field, ranking 14th in Good Drive Percentage and 20th in Strokes Gained: Approach over his last 24 rounds.
His profile becomes even more appealing when viewed through the lens of TPC Toronto. McGreevy ranks in the 84th percentile on Tour in Strokes Gained per shot from beyond 200 yards, a key range given the volume of long-iron approaches players faced in Osprey Valley's debut season.
Moore, meanwhile, trails McGreevy in each of this week's critical approach buckets while ranking outside the top 100 in Good Drive Percentage. That combination leaves him at a distinct disadvantage in the ball-striking categories most likely to determine success this week.
And course history only reinforces the gap. McGreevy demonstrated a clear comfort level at Osprey Valley last year, finishing T27 in his tournament debut. Moore, on the other hand, missed the cut by five shots while producing one of his worst combined approach-and-putting performances of the season.
And while Moore's short game is typically capable of masking deficiencies elsewhere, even that advantage appears less pronounced on this surface. When isolating for courses featuring similar Bentgrass/Poa Annua agronomy, Moore actually falls below the field average in putting performance.
Given my preference for backing strong ball-striking profiles in the first place, it's difficult to overlook a putting-dependent player whose primary strength has historically been less effective on comparable greens.
I make McGreevy the superior fit from virtually every statistical angle this week, and I'm happy to back him at anything near a pick'em price.
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PGA Finishing Position Props
All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 6/10/2026. Odds are subject to change.
Austin Smotherman WINNER (+16567 at Novig)
While I discussed my favorite values near the top of the board in this week's Power Rankings, this section is reserved for a player whose upside far exceeds what his outright price implies.
Austin Smotherman may not arrive with a string of eye-catching finishes, but his profile checks an impressive number of boxes for success at TPC Toronto.
On a golf course that ranked inside the top 15 on Tour in penalty for missed fairways during its debut season. Smotherman stands out as one of the more accurate drivers in professional golf. He ranks 17th on Tour in Driving Accuracy and eighth in this week's field.
And once he finds the short grass, the SMU product will be in position to flex his biggest weapon. Smotherman ranks sixth in this field in season-long Approach play, and when isolating the two most important approach buckets at Osprey Valley (100-150 and 200+), he leads the entire field in weighted proximity. Per strokes gained, he grades in the 96th and 94th percentile on Tour from those respective ranges.
Of course, the putter remains the biggest hurdle between Smotherman and genuine contention. But while that has been the weakest area of his profile for much of the season, there are reasons for optimism given this week's agronomy. Over his last 20 rounds on Bentgrass/Poa Annua blends, Smotherman ranks 23rd in this field in putting performance. He has also produced two of the six best putting weeks of his career on similar surfaces at Silverado, gaining 5.06 strokes in 2024 and 3.48 in 2022.
Recent form on the greens is also quietly encouraging. Smotherman has gained 4.36 and 2.76 strokes putting in two of his last three starts, a stark contrast to the struggles that plagued him throughout much of March and April.
Even if you're skeptical that every piece of the puzzle comes together this week, the price does plenty of the heavy lifting. At 165-1, Smotherman is available at the best number in the market, and among the players in this range, few can match the combination of driving accuracy, elite approach play, and course-specific strengths that he brings to TPC Toronto.
