RADIO
Many fantasy football players are already looking ahead to the 2024 season, and after the first two rounds of the NFL playoffs, the outlooks and needs for some AFC contenders have come into clearer view. Following the elimination of five of the seven top AFC playoff seeds, I take a fantasy-style look at some of the biggest questions from teams that made the playoffs but failed to advance to the AFC Conference Championship game.
During the regular season and in the AFC playoffs, we saw C.J. Stroud and David Njoku ascend, and James Cook tookfull hold of the starting RB job in Buffalo. The Dolphins will continue to tie their success to Tyreek Hill, and De’Von Achane overcame expectations. Pittsburgh admirably made the playoffs, but the offense may still be held back by whoever starts at QB.
I address some of the most prominent fantasy football topics from five AFC playoff teams as we peer ahead to 2024 drafts. They do include takes on where some players may fit into my early 2024 fantasy football rankings.
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Houston Texans
C.J. Stroud will be a QB1, but is he top 5 for 2024?: In his very impressive rookie campaign, Stroud averaged 18.7 Fantasy Points Per Game, which ranked seventh among QBs that started more than nine games. He then passed for 274 yards and three TDs against Cleveland in the AFC Wild Card game, further cementing himself as a quickly ascending starter in fantasy football and real life. He helped Nico Collins arrive as a true No. 1 fantasy WR, and once the Texans see Tank Dell return to health, Stroud will have two upside WRs to rely on, and Houston might add more quality WR depth in the offseason.
Stroud is not the dual threat type that should be ranked ahead of Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts, of course. Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields also have rushing upside that make them preferable picks over the Houston QB. Dak Prescott is coming off a career year, but he may be the only other top QB who should be taken ahead of Stroud for sure. Joe Burrow has lingering durability concerns, and Anthony Richardson has yet to show he can stay healthy. We will also have to wait and see how the Chiefs improve the WR crew for Patrick Mahomes in the offseason.
CJ Stroud had the most fantasy points by a quarterback in a week this season with 41.8 fantasy points in Week 9.
He achieved this with only 10 rushing yards in this game.
Who needs legs when you can throw for 470 passing yards on 30-42 attempts with 5 passing TDs ? 💪 🚀 pic.twitter.com/YiogKcXBiY
— Joe Beldner (@JoeBeldner) January 19, 2024
I believe Stroud clearly has the promise to finish in the top 5 among fantasy football QBs for 2024. But for now, I would take Allen, Hurts, Jackson, Fields, and Prescott ahead of him and likely will end up ranking Mahomes ahead of him too. But I can certainly see picking him ahead of Burrow and Richardson, because he will have a ceiling similar to Burrow’s. Stroud does make sense as a pick in the top 8 at QB for sure in 2024, and I would not trade him in a dynasty league unless a major offer that is hard to refuse comes in.
Buffalo Bills
Is James Cook a surefire fantasy RB1 for 2024?: The second-year man emerged as the clear RB1 for Buffalo during the 2023 season. Cook is versatile and he finished as a back-end fantasy football RB1, as he was 12th in total PPR points with 232.7. His average of 13.7 points per game, however, ranked 19th among RBs who were regular starters in 2023.
Cook is a determined and versatile RB, but he is not a goal-line threat and he does not deliver big plays often enough. He had only two rushing TDs during the full regular season and playoffs. He did not have a run longer than 15 yards in eight of his last nine games overall and did not have a reception of 10 yards in eight of his final 12. The Bills searched for a physical complement to Cook throughout the ’23 season and will likely do so for ’24.
I will certainly target Cook as one of the better high-end RB2s in summer seasonal drafts and would love to get him as a second pick on rosters where the first two selections are at RB. I will likely rank him just outside of the top 12, though, preferring RBs with larger workloads such as Isiah Pacheco, or with more upside, such as De’Von Achane, who would get my nod in a very close call with Cook.
Miami Dolphins
Will you take Tyreek Hill No. 1 overall?: Hill finished fourth in fantasy PPR scoring in 2023, as only Josh Allen, CeeDee Lamb, and Christian McCaffrey finished with more than his 376.4 points. Hill’s average of 23.4 FFPG also was fourth overall. I am not the type to take a QB over a WR in a single-QB fantasy football format, and I believe Lamb could get more receiving help next season that might cut into his ceiling a bit.
Durability is not an annual concern for Christian McCaffrey anymore, so I cannot rank Hill ahead of him when the drop-off from CMC to the No. 2 overall RB is obviously greater than the one from Hill to guys like Justin Jefferson and Lamb. With a stable QB situation next season, Jefferson, who scored 368.7 points in 2022, can come quite close to Hill in terms of fantasy output. So I anticipate ranking Hill second overall for 2024.
There are ONLY 2 RB’s who finished Top-10 in BOTH PFF Rushing Grade AND PFF Receiving Grade.
Christian McCaffrey.
AND…
De’Von Achane. pic.twitter.com/krty8CHZaM
— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) January 23, 2024
The other significant question from the Miami roster will be how to approach Achane in drafts. The ceiling is apparently very high on a week-to-week basis, but availability and a shared workload will be concerns. He can be a difference-maker in any given week, and it will be hard to pass on Achane once the top 10 RBs are off the board. I would move to build quality depth behind him a few rounds later if possible because of injury concerns. In dynasty formats, acquiring insurance behind him in a trade or the upcoming draft should be a focus.
If Achane is one of your top 3 RBs and all of them can potentially be used as starters, the third RB may be a luxury as a flex when all are healthy. If I draft Achane next season, I will strongly consider taking three RBs among my first six to seven picks or so.
Cleveland Browns
Where will you be ranking David Njoku at tight end for the 2024 season?: Finally, in his seventh NFL season, Njoku emerged as true fantasy TE1, finishing sixth in PPR points at the position, as he came on stronger during the second half of the schedule. From Week 7 forward, Njoku failed to score in double figures only once, and that type of dependability was very welcome at a position heavily stocked with unreliable performers.
Deshaun Watson should return as the starter next season, and Njoku played well regularly as Watson missed the final seven games of the 2023 campaign. The Browns cleaned out their offensive coaching staff and are aiming for stability next season, and Njoku will be a big part of the plan. Watson’s uncertain outlook, though, prevents me from ranking him as a definite top 4 TE. Sam LaPorta and Trey McBride have arrived as top-level TEs, and Mark Andrews still will deserve a higher rank at the position.
Travis Kelce may have started to decline in 2023, but his floor can be similar to Njoku’s next season and he obviously has a better QB situation. Njoku can potentially be more consistently productive than George Kittle and Evan Engram, though, so I can agree with ranking him as high as fifth at TE for ’24.
Pittsburgh Steelers
How much will the QB situation bog down the Pittsburgh WRs from fantasy perspectives?: Published reports indicate that Kenny Pickett might compete with Mason Rudolph to be the starter next season. Rudolph did lead the Steelers to a playoff berth, yet he did so with uninspiring totals for fantasy purposes. Previously in his career, Rudolph never showed much promise offensively and Pickett has been downright erratic so far in his career.
Pittsburgh has two potentially very productive WRs in George Pickens and Diontae Johnson, who can operate as consistent quality fantasy performers with a stable or improved QB situation. The Steelers have been rumored as a landing team for Russell Wilson if he is released, or it is not out of the question that Pittsburgh could get into the market for another QB via free agency or a trade route. Justin Fields in black and gold?
Steelers insider emeritus @EdBouchette says on @937theFan he thinks Russell Wilson is a possibility for the Steelers. And it would be "a no brainer decision to sign him." WOW.
— Andrew Fillipponi (@ThePoniExpress) January 23, 2024
If Pickett and Rudolph, who is also a free agent, are competing for the starting job in 2024, I won’t want to draft Pickens or Johnson as a WR3. Wilson’s best years are behind him, yet he could still be a decent upgrade, and pair well with Pickens on deep balls. If the Steelers elect to go outside of their current roster at QB, I will be more confident in drafting Pickens and Johnson as projected fantasy starters next season.
Scott Engel's fantasy and betting analysis is also featured at The Game Day.
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