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NFL Playoff Picks: Wild-Card Weekend

After one of the wildest Week 17's in recent memory and what felt like an extremely short season, we've finally made it to the playoffs. The AFC is very weak. The wild card teams have no shot at reaching the Super Bowl. The four division champs do. Over to the NFC, all six teams can make the Super Bowl.

Nothing will surprise me there. Even a rematch of last year's Super Bowl. We've seen three Cavs-Warriors finals in a row, two consecutive Alabama-Clemson championships, North Carolina basketball reach the championship two years in a row, and the Penguins win back-to-back Cups. Is it so out fo the realm to get a Falcons Patriots rematch.

I will be attempting to seek perfection in the impossible playoff challenge; the immaculate 11-0 against the spread perfect postseason.

Editor's Note: The FFPC Baby Gorilla Tournament is now open, featuring a $100,000 grand prize and a $675,450 total prize pool! This 12-team, Tight End Premium contest uses a 20-round draft format, with the overall winners determined by total points scored during Weeks 15–17. Get $25 to use toward your first entry by signing up through our link. Grab your team now! Sign Up Now!

 

CHIEFS -9 vs. Titans

Saturday 4:30

All season long, I've consistently said the Titans are so overrated with an anemic offense straight from the 90's. Their offense is run, run, then a 5-yard pass way short of the sticks. That's partly due to them being 18th in yards per play. Marcus Mariota took a giant step back this year. His yards per attempt dipped from 7.6 to 7.1, and his passer rating fell from 95 to 79. More shocking was the fact that Deshaun Watson, who played in SIX games, threw for 19 touchdowns, while Mariota threw for 13 in 15 games. That wasn't a typo. You read that correctly. It's even more scary that Mariota's threw 13 touchdowns to 15 picks. Additionally (from The Action Network), he "has performed substantially worse on the road this season (8 TDs/4 INTs at home vs. 5 TDs/11 INTs on the road)."

Now the Chiefs defense has struggled at times, but they step up when it counts. They've played exceptional in primetime, not including the Thursday night road game in Oakland where they had four days rest; they held Tom Brady, Kirk Cousins, and Phillip Rivers to under 300 passing yards and a combined 7.20 opponent Y/A. That was also Brady's second-worst passer rating all year and Rivers's two worst games. The've created multiple turnovers in their past four games, are second in turnover differential, and seventh in takeaways. That doesn't bode well for a Titans team who's given the ball away an average of twice on the road (29th).

Worried about the Chiefs offense? Don't be. They've turned the ball over the least amount of times in the entire league. That's in part because Alex Smith had a career year. He threw for 4,000 yards for the first time ever, set career highs in touchdowns, 26, passer rating, 104.7, and Y/A, eight, with five interceptions. It wasn't like he was throwing dinks and dunks like Mariota was. The Chiefs were second in yards per play, fifth in points per game, 26, and tied for third in 40+ yard plays (the Titans had six such all year).  The Titans have a defense ranked 21st in DVOA, and as much as they've taken care of their cake schedule, they will struggle to slow down Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and Kareem Hunt.

Andy Reid gets a bad knack for the playoffs, and rightly so. His postseason record is 11-12, and he'll do something stupid with the clock. That you can count on. However, Reid has made the playoffs 12 times in his career, and only four of those times has he lost in the team's playoff opener.

The Chiefs may struggle to stop the run, but I don't see how the Titans can keep pace with the Chiefs in Arrowhead. I'll lay the points.

Prediction: Chiefs 30 - Titans 13

 

Falcons +6.5 @ RAMS

Saturday 8:00

Doesn't the line seem two points too high? Is Vegas begging us to bet the Falcons or are they completely miscalculating this game?

The Falcons have struggled on offense this year and something is off. For a team that scored 30 points in 12 games last season, excluding the playoffs, they've broken 30 just four times. How are they only ranked 15th in points scored, one season after scoring a league leading 34.1 points, the most since the Broncos averaged 36.4 in 2013. The next best team last was second with 29.3 points. To compare that to this year, the Rams led the league with 29.9 and the Pats were second with 28.6.

Since 2015, the Falcons are 4-2 on the road on the West Coast. The two losses have been by a combined three points. One of those games was the non pass-interference on Julio Jones in Seattle. They are a dome team so playing in a warm stadium is enormously beneficial. Their entire offense relies on Matt Ryan's playmaking ability. Last year was an anomaly. Just check his career stats. He will need to play as well as he did last season for them to compete. Atlanta has the players, talent and experience. Can they execute against a top-10 defense coached by Wade Phillips?

The Rams offense reliably heavily on Todd Gurley. He accounted for 36% of the Rams offense. Atlanta's head coach, Dan Quinn, was the defensive coordinator for the Seahawks in 2013 and 2014 when they went to back-to-back Super Bowls. He knows how to coach a defense and will have a game plan to slow down Gurley. The Rams also love throwing the deep ball and are extremely effective doing it. They rank seventh in 20+ yard pass plays and fifth in 40+ yard plays. However, the Falcons have allowed the eighth least 20+ yard plays, and only four 40+ yard plays, ranking fourth. The Rams are the young fun team that kind of reminds me of the Eagles under Chip Kelly in 2013 when they won the NFC East. LeSean McCoy had a great season like Gurley. Nick Foles had an incredible year like Goff. Kelly was the young hot coach of the NFL, like McCoy. And, they ended up losing in the first round to the Saints at home.

This could come down to a field goal and the Rams lost their stud kicker Greg Zuerlein a couple weeks ago. I think the Falcons win this one a really tight battle.

Prediction: Falcons 30 - Rams 27

 

JAGUARS -9 vs. Bills

Sunday 1:00

This game will be determined if LeSean McCoy plays or not. He's "accounted for more than 32% of the Bills' yards this season (3rd highest percentage in the NFL).

The Bills are the worst ranked playoff team per DVOA with a total DVOA rank of 21, offensive, 26, and defensive, 15.

What makes me nervous is the Bills are celebrating like they've made it to the Super Bowl. It's their first trip to the playoffs in 18 seasons, first this millennium, so naturally the fans and players are going to be hyped. But will they head into Sunday with the mindset of happy to be there, or wanting to prove they were a deserving playoff team?

The Jags number one ranked pass defense will feast on Tyrod Taylor. They were second in sacks and Taylor takes 3.01 seconds to get rid of the pass, bottom three in the league. Simply put, they have the best defense in the league. We all know that. But did you know they were the number one rushing team in the league averaging 141 yards per game. That's not good news for a Buffalo defense that was bottom five against the run allowing 124 yards per game. They will also struggle to get pressure on Blake Bortles. The Bills had 27 sacks, bottom five in the league. Even after all those stats, I still believe the defensive minded Sean McDermott will load up to stop the run, and make Bortles beat them.

Earlier in the week I liked the Bills to cover, but this stat was the telltale sign. The Jags are fifth in first quarter points while Buffalo is 31st.  The Jags will get off to an early lead, and let the defense take control.

And, if for somehow, it's a close game, maybe we'll get a Music City Miracle repeat. Too soon?

Prediction: Jaguars 23 - Bills 10

 

SAINTS -7 vs. Panthers

Sunday 4:30

This will be the third time these teams will meet this season. The Saints defeated the Panthers in Week 3, 34-13, and in Week 13, 31-21. New Orleans is a top-five offense predicated on outside runs and 5-yard screens to Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara. The major factor of this game will rely on Carolina setting the edge? Can they contain Ingram and Kamara and force the Saints to play a different game than they're used to? The Panthers are 27th in open-field tackling and that's not good news for them. However, they were eighth against the run this year. Carolina is not good against the pass. Since their bye in week 11, they've allowed Robbie Anderson, Jermaine Kearse, Adam Thielen, and Mike Evans to go over 100 receiving yards. They are simply awful in the secondary. If they can't stop the run, they will have no chance to slow down Michael Thomas.

Will the real Cam Newton please stand up? This is the main other factor for this game. He's thrown for over 300 yards twice all year and that was in Week 5 and 6. He's thrown the most interceptions since his rookie year and had his lowest Y/A, 6.7, in his career. But if there's one player who can be all of a sudden play like a star, it's him. He is so mercurial. You just never know which Newton you will get.

Eight of the Saints wins have been by double-digits, the other three were by nine, eight and three. It's terrifying to go against Newton in the playoffs, but the Saints will get out to an early lead. They've scored the second-most first quarter points, 6.7, and nine over their last three, while Carolina was 18th with with 3.7. The Saints will get out to an early lead, Newton will get off to a slow start and never recover in a raucous environment.

Preditciton: Saints 34 - Panthers 24

Best of luck!




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Odell Beckham Jr.

Giants Not Looking to Sign Odell Beckham Jr. Right Now
Bo Nix

Will be Full Speed Before Training Camp
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen the Heavy Favorite at Watkins Glen
Chase Elliott

Is Chase Elliott a No-Brainer DFS Pick at Watkins Glen?
Chris Buescher

Qualifies 14th at Watkins Glen
Ryan Blaney

Has Upside at Watkins Glen After Signing Contract Extension
Michael McDowell

Still Searching for First Top-Five Finish at Watkins Glen
Carson Hocevar

Is Carson Hocevar Too Aggressive for Road-Course Racing?
Joey Logano

Needs a Good Run at Watkins Glen
Duncan Robinson

Shines on Both Ends Saturday
Cade Cunningham

Records Second Career Postseason Triple-Double
Donovan Mitchell

Logs 35-Point Double-Double
James Harden

Plays Late Hero Saturday
OG Anunoby

Could Miss Another Game Sunday
Joel Embiid

Considered Probable for Sunday's Elimination Game
Jarred Vanderbilt

Active on Saturday Night
Logan Webb

Placed on 15-Day Injured List With Knee Bursitis
CHI

Blackhawks Bring in Roman Kantserov for Next Season
Mason McTavish

Set to Rejoin Ducks Lineup Sunday
Lukas Dostal

to Remain in Ducks Crease Sunday
Zach Bogosian

Back for Wild Saturday
Jesper Wallstedt

Starting Game 3 Against Avalanche
Joel Eriksson Ek

Not Ready to Return Saturday
Owen Tippett

Won't Play Saturday
Cooper Kupp

a Dynasty Hold into the Start of 2026 Season
Jaylen Warren

a Safe Dynasty Depth Piece with Insurance Upside
Christian McCaffrey

a Risky Dynasty Hold Who Still Exceeds His Trade Value
Brian Thomas Jr.

A Risky Buy-Low with Immense Upside
Tre' Harris

a Dynasty Hold That Could Require Patience
Braelon Allen

Dynasty Stock Takes a Hit After Teammate's Extension
Josh Allen

Still the Top Dynasty QB in his Prime
Kyler Murray

Suddenly a Rising Dynasty Target in Minnesota
Logan Webb

on Track to Start Against Dodgers on Monday
Mike Matheson

Leads by Example in Game 2 Win
Jakub Dobes

Rebounds After Loss Yet Again for Montreal
Rachaad White

Undervalued in Dynasty Leagues Despite a Path to Upside
Alex Newhook

Sets Tone in Big Montreal Victory
Stephon Castle

Overcomes Shooting Struggles Friday
Jake Tonges

Should by Now Be Rostered by Every Kittle Dynasty Manager
Anthony Edwards

Carries Heavy Usage in Defeat
Chig Okonkwo

a Clear Breakout Candidate in Washington
Lukas Dostal

Gets Pulled in Game 3 Loss on Friday
Victor Wembanyama

Joins Historic Playoff Company
Mikal Bridges

Continues Postseason Surge with 23-Point Game
Aaron Jones Sr.

Still a Low-Cost, Short-Term Dynasty Target
Kelly Oubre Jr.

Keeps Scoring Role Alive
Romeo Doubs

' Buy Window Could Soon Be Wide Open
Joel Embiid

Held to 18 Points in 76ers Game 3 Loss
Brett Howden

Notches Sixth Goal of the Postseason
Jalen Brunson

Tallies 33 Points to Take 3-0 Series Lead
VEG

Mitch Marner Hat Trick Helps Vegas Take Series Lead
Pat Bryant

Working With Training Staff This Offseason
Jacoby Brissett

in Communication With Cardinals Despite Skipping Workouts
Daniel Jones

Could Take Part in 7-on-7 Drills at OTAs
Tyler Glasnow

Dodgers Put Tyler Glasnow on Injured List With Back Spasms
Sam Merrill

Iffy for Game 3 on Saturday
Anthony Edwards

Rejoins Starting Lineup Friday
Kevin Huerter

Likely to Remain Out Saturday
Jarred Vanderbilt

Considered Questionable for Saturday
Jalen Williams

Ruled Out for Game 3 Against Lakers
Ayo Dosunmu

Cleared to Play Friday
Anthony Edwards

Available Friday Night
Mats Zuccarello

Expected to Play Saturday
Joel Eriksson Ek

to Be a Game-Time Decision Saturday
Jonas Brodin

Still Out Saturday
Josh Manson

Could Return Saturday
Kaedan Korczak

Scratched for Game 3 Against Ducks
Radko Gudas

Likely to Remain Out Friday
Sam Carrick

Won't Play Friday
Isiah Pacheco

Can Isiah Pacheco Re-Establish His Dynasty Value in Detroit?
Rico Dowdle

Dynasty Ceiling Limited By Backfield Committee in Pittsburgh
Rashid Shaheed

a High-Risk, High-Reward Buy-Low Candidate for Dynasty Managers
Blake Snell

to Make Season Debut for Dodgers on Saturday
Cole Ragans

Royals Place Cole Ragans on Injured List With Elbow Impingement
Sean Strickland

An Underdog At UFC 328
Khamzat Chimaev

Set For UFC 328 Main Event
Tatsuro Taira

Can Become The New Flyweight Champion
Joshua Van

Set For His First Title Defense
Alexander Volkov

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
MMA

Waldo Cortes-Acosta Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Nick Lodolo

Officially Activated, Making Season Debut on Friday
CFB

Walker Lyons Could be Go-To Target for Bear Bachmeier
CFB

Ty Benefield a Potential Game-Changer for LSU Defense
CFB

Hayden Lowe Set for Significant Role Following Miami's NFL Departures
CFB

Taylor Wein in Position for Big Season on Oklahoma's Defensive Line
CFB

Rasheem Biles an Instant Impact Player for Texas
Dan Vladar

Looks to Return to Winning Ways Thursday
Roman Anthony

Heading for the Injured List
CFB

Sam Leavitt Expected to Be Full-Go for Fall Camp
Tarik Skubal

Could Return in 4-6 Weeks After Successful Elbow Surgery
Cole Ragans

Royals Hopeful That Cole Ragans Makes his Next Start
Emilio Pagán

Emilio Pagan has Grade 2 Hamstring Strain, Expected to Miss 4-8 Weeks
Joe Ryan

Listed as Scheduled Starter for Saturday Against Cleveland
Tyler Glasnow

Not Expected to Land on the Injured List
Framber Valdez

Suspension Reduced to Five Games
Framber Valdez

Suspended Six Games
Tyler Glasnow

Exits Early on Wednesday With Back Pain
CFB

Brauntae Johnson the Next Star in Notre Dame's Secondary?
CFB

Ethan Barbour a Name to Know in Georgia's Tight End Room
CFB

Payton Pierce Next Up at Linebacker for Ohio State
CFB

Javin Gordon to Play Significant Role for Tennessee?
CFB

Tanook Hines Stepping into WR1 Role for USC
CFB

Rueben Owens II has "Star Potential" in Fourth Campaign
Brandon Woodruff

has Fluid Drained From his Right Shoulder
Brandon Woodruff

to Resume Throwing on Saturday, Return Imminent?
Carlos Correa

to Have Season-Ending Ankle Surgery
Jacob Misiorowski

Listed as Friday's Probable Starter
Logan Webb

Dealing With Knee Discomfort
Carlos Correa

Expected to Miss Significant Time With Ankle Injury
Collin Morikawa

Withdraws From Truist Championship
Xander Schauffele

Carries Elite Form Into Quail Hollow
Hideki Matsuyama

Looks to Bounce Back at Truist Championship
Matt Fitzpatrick

Secures Third Win of 2026 Season
Patrick Cantlay

Continues Playing Well Heading to Truist Championship
Ludvig Aberg

Returns to Action For Truist Championship
Justin Thomas

Searching for Consistency at Quail Hollow
Jordan Spieth

Looks to Break Through at Quail Hollow
Adam Scott

Brings Strong Form to Quail Hollow
Robert MacIntyre

a Steady Option at Truist Championship
Jason Day

Looks to Overcome Approach Struggles at Quail Hollow
Akshay Bhatia

Looks for Complete Game at Truist Championship
Justin Rose

to Continue Mid-Season Club Change at Truist Championship
Si Woo Kim

is Back to Peak Form Ahead of Truist Championship
Sam Burns

to Bounce Back at Truist Championship
Cameron Young

Looks to Carry Dominance to Quail Hollow
Rory McIlroy

Returns to Familiar Stomping Grounds This Week at Quail Hollow
Chris Gotterup

Looking to Bounce Back at Quail Hollow
Tommy Fleetwood

Looking For Better Iron Play at Quail Hollow
CFB

Mario Craver Enters No. 1 Wide Receiver Role for Marcel Reed
CFB

LaNorris Sellers a Strong Rebound Candidate in 2026
CFB

Cam Coleman Poised for Monster Year at Texas?
CFB

Will Hammond Pushing to Be Ready for Week 1
Alex Fitzpatrick

Looking to Keep Up Ball-Striking Output at Quail Hollow
CFB

Notre Dame Leads College Football in Returning Snaps
CFB

Two Ole Miss Football Players Arrested, Charged with DUI
Ben Griffin

Looks Solid on the Surface Heading to Charlotte
Chase Elliott

Earns his Second Texas Motor Speedway Victory
Denny Hamlin

Misses Out on Winning at Texas
Alex Bowman

Finishes Third for the Second Week in a Row at Texas
Tyler Reddick

Earns Seventh Top-Five Finish of the Season at Texas
Chris Buescher

Scores his First Career Texas Finish in the Top Five
CFB

Bryce Underwood in Better Situation Entering Sophomore Season
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Emerging as Leader, Playmaker for UCLA
Jack Della Maddalena

Gets Dominated At UFC Perth
Carlos Prates

Shines At UFC Perth
Beneil Dariush

Suffers A First-Round TKO Loss
Quillan Salkilld

Remains Unbeaten In The UFC
Tim Elliott

Drops Decision At UFC Perth
Steve Erceg

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Ollie Schmid

Suffers First-Round TKO Loss
Marwan Rahiki

Remains Unbeaten