Running Back Matchups to Target for Week 16 (2025) - De'Von Achane, Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, More

December 20, 2025

Thunder Dan's favorite RB matchups to exploit for Week 16 of 2025 -- DFS running backs to target on DraftKings and FanDuel. These RB matchups are GPP and cash game opportunities.

This week, the Sunday main slate shrinks back down to 11 games since we have two games today (Saturday) in addition to the usual three primetime games on Thursday, Sunday, and Monday nights. We have a situation where some very highly utilized backs are also the same guys in the really good matchups, so we could be looking at some consolidated rostership around these players. But you'll have to decide on how to navigate the game theory aspect of things; my job is just to point out the best matchups!

I will drop the usual disclaimer that while total touches and red-zone usage are factors that should always be considered, my goal in this article is to locate the best overall matchups for running backs using some advanced statistics to do so.

The primary focus of this piece is NFL DFS; however, these are also running backs you should smash into your season-long lineups and great candidates for prop bets. We also have lots of great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win MORE this season! Without any further ado, here are my top four matchups for the Week 16 main slate - and I tossed in a few honorable mentions this week as well.

Week 16 Running Back Matchups

In my constant search for usable metrics, I crunched the first 15 weeks of data. The first column shows the overall offensive rushing attack vs. the opponent, calculated from each team's offensive and defensive DVOA.

The second column is the offensive vs. defensive line matchup, calculated from each team's "adjusted line yards" created and allowed. The third column is simply Pro Football Focus' run-blocking grade for each team's offensive line.

De'Von Achane ($8,800 DK, $9,800 FD)

Miami Dolphins vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Of the three high-priced running backs in smash matchups, it appears that Achane is set to be the most lightly-rostered this week. That likely stems from the uncertainty surrounding this Miami offense as they hand the reins over to Quinn Ewers with the benching of Tua Tagovailoa.

Last year, Achane really struggled in this offense in the games that Tua missed, and this is a lot of salary to invest in a player whose efficiency might suffer if Miami's offense is stuck in neutral.

Achane was rolling right along in the second half before suffering an injury in Week 14 against the Jets and had to leave the game early. Last week, he was held to 60 yards rushing by the Steelers, but he added another 67 yards receiving to finish over 100 scrimmage yards for the sixth straight week.

But folks, this is still the Bengals' run defense! They've moved up to 30th in the league, but are still allowing the most fantasy points to opposing backs and are 32nd against backs as receivers (DVOA). Cincy has allowed 100+ scrimmage yards to opposing lead backs in nine of their last ten games!

Miami will surely lean on Achane a lot in this spot with a young quarterback under center, right? Scheming a bunch of easy short throws for Ewers to Achane in the flat also makes a ton of sense. Obviously, Miami will have to be able to sustain drives, and Ewers will have to be able to make some plays, but we're still looking at a situation where Achane could eclipse 20 touches, and we know that this Cincy run defense is quite vulnerable to the big play.

Achane feels like an elite leverage play for tournaments on this play. When others are fearful...be greedy!

Bijan Robinson ($8,700 DK, $9,600 FD)

Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals

Alright, let's get to the first of the two big chalky backs this week. It comes as no surprise to me that DFS players are looking forward to clicking Robinson's name into their lineups this week, as he posted 30+ DK points last week for the third time in his last five games and now gets an Arizona run defense that continues to get run over by opposing rushing attacks.

The Cardinals rank 25th in DVOA against the run and have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season.

DAWG: Atlanta #Falcons running back Bijan Robinson is the shiftiest player in the #NFL right now.

Bijan has remarkable footwork and patience that we have not seen in a very long time.

Freak-talent. Bijan is a one-of-one player.
pic.twitter.com/joj8Xj6zYP

— MLFootball (@MLFootball) December 18, 2025

Neither team has anything to play for here in terms of playoff hopes, but the Falcons didn't last week either, and that didn't stop them from handing Robinson 90% of the rushing attempts. Kirk Cousins also targeted him 11 times as a receiver.

Drake London will return for the Falcons this week, but I think a more balanced offensive attack for Atlanta actually helps Robinson rather than hurting him. The Cardinals have been so bad that I am not sure it matters all that much.

This game has a top-3 total on the slate, and Arizona has enough offense on the other side to keep this one close. Bijan is the top play on the board, and I don't see any real reason to fade him. Tyler Allgeier can always vulture a touchdown or two, but Robinson is clearly set up to go off in this spot and brings a ceiling/floor combo that is unmatched.

Jahmyr Gibbs ($8,500 DK, $9,500 FD)

Detroit Lions vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Gibbs is the other expensive option who is gaining a lot of traction this week as a top play, and I can see why. After being held in check as a runner the last two weeks by the Cowboys and Rams, this is a great spot for Gibbs to bounce back, as the Lions are touchdown favorites at home against a Steelers defense that ranks 16th against the run and will be once again without their best defensive player, T.J. Watt.

Pittsburgh's defense doesn't usually pop as one we want to attack, but they've been run over by other top rushing attacks this season, and the Lions come into this one with the fifth-rated running game in the league. The Bears, Bills, and Ravens all had their way against this defense in recent weeks, and the Lions will surely test the interior of this Steelers defense early and often in this one.

The thing about Gibbs is that he can be limited as a runner and still burn you as a receiver, as we've seen him rack up some huge receiving totals this season.

I have my doubts about the Steelers' ability to hang with Detroit in this game, so we could see a potentially favorable game script for Gibbs here, and I am sure the Lions wouldn't mind pounding the football more often this week as they've been forced to throw it far more than they'd like to in recent weeks.

Aaron Jones Sr. ($5,200 DK, $6,700 FD)

Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants

If you spend a big chunk of your salary cap on two of those three high-priced backs, you'll need some value somewhere, right? Jones looks like the best value option on the board to me, as the Vikings get a date with the worst run defense in football - the New York Giants.

You may be thinking, "But Dan, can we really just pick on the Giants every week?" And the answer is, "Yes, we sure can!"

Last week, we didn't get to play Chris Rodriguez Jr. against New York; however, Jacory Croskey-Merritt was able to go 18-96-1 in his place and paid off those folks who were able to make the Sunday morning swap when C-Rod was ruled out.

Aaron Jones gives the @Vikings an early lead 😤

BALvsMIN on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXnxV pic.twitter.com/vEVyicK4ps

— NFL (@NFL) November 9, 2025

I mentioned it last week, but the Giants' run defense is considerably worse than even other bad run defenses like the Bengals or Cardinals. This is a spot that continues to produce, and it would be foolish not to take advantage of it this week, even if Jones does have to contend with Jordan Mason for touches.

If the Vikings really want to run the football, there's a scenario where Jones and Mason both hit value - especially if they have a positive game script. With Minnesota's offense trending up and some improved quarterback play from J.J. McCarthy, I think that's well within the range of outcomes.

Honorable Mention

James Cook III vs. Cleveland Browns ($7,700 DK, $8,800 FD)

One of the workhorses on this slate who surely won't draw much rostership is Cook, as the Bills face the Browns and their second-ranked run defense. However, this is a "strength on strength" situation as the Bills have the third-rated rushing attack in the NFL and will look to impose their will on Cleveland.

If we look at some recent trends, we can see that Cleveland has softened against the run quite a bit, allowing Tony Pollard to have a huge day in Week 14 and then giving up 98 yards (and two touchdowns) to D'Andre Swift. That's now eight rushing touchdowns allowed by the Browns over their last six games.

Javonte Williams vs. Los Angeles Chargers ($6,400 DK, $7,900 FD)

I like the Chargers to win this game, but I think Dallas keeps it close and puts up some points here. The Cowboys would be wise to run the football against the Chargers, who rank just 21st against the run this season and have been lights out against the pass in recent weeks.

Williams is priced in the mid-tier this week and should be lightly-rostered as a result of many DFS players paying up for some of the studs mentioned earlier in this article or going all the way down to some of the value plays.

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