RADIO
Friday’s nine game slate doesn’t consist of the highest point totals, but look at the projected lineups for each game and you’ll notice that most of the teams playing are surprisingly healthy aside from the Warriors missing their most important player. As we saw yesterday, Golden State without Draymond Green does not have a chance to win games, especially not against an up-and-coming contender in the Bulls.
Memphis is the only other team that plays their second game in consecutive days, and although the Mavericks don’t pose much of a threat outside of Luka Doncic, the Grizzlies core three of Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane all played over 30 minutes last night against Minnesota, so take that into consideration.
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TOR @ DET
Fred VanVleet (TOR) MORE 23.5 Points – Saddiq Bey (DET) LESS 19.5 Points
Fred VanVleet has been one of the most productive players in the league over the past week and if somehow 24 points seems too high for your liking, he’s currently projected for 42.5 fantasy points. If there is one sure thing about the NBA, it’s that regular season defense isn’t good. Even if the Pistons backcourt has the size advantage, VanVleet one of those few guards that makes up for size regardless of who he is facing.
If Saddiq Bey isn’t the top option in the offense that night, which is the case now that Cade Cunningham is back, he rarely hits the 20-point mark. Since Cunningham’s return, out of the six games both have played, the Pistons are 3-3 and Bey’s only scored 20 or more points two times. Against one of the few teams that actually plays defense in the regular season, it’ll have to be a randomly efficient game from the Pistons designated hustle player for him to hit the over.
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PHX @ IND
Devin Booker (PHX) MORE 23.5 Points – Caris LeVert (IND) MORE 18.5 Points
The Suns are 5-4 over their last nine games with Devin Booker scoring at least 20 points in six of those contests. When Phoenix lines up against a team that consists of defensive playmakers, in this case players like Myles Turner and Malcolm Brogdon, Booker actually gets more usage and his ceiling rises. The Suns have lost four games since Christmas after losing just 5 total games the two-and-a-half months prior. Phoenix doesn’t have the luxury to rely on other options so Booker should be taking most of the shots tonight.
In his first game back after five game absence, Caris LeVert scored 16 points on nine shots. He played 28 minutes which is promising, especially if Brogdon ends up missing tonight’s game because of soreness. Even if Brogdon does in fact play, it’s clear that LeVert’s running the offense whenever he gets in and playing over 30 minutes seems like the path he set for himself with how he played last game.
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HOU @ SAC
De’Aaron Fox (SAC) MORE 22.5 Points – Christian Wood (HOU) MORE 19.5 Points
The point total of this game is incredibly high, so it’s easy to take the over for both players here. De’Aaron Fox is going to be able to break down this backcourt and frontcourt defense won’t be able to provide much help when that happens. There will be no shortage of opportunities for any Sacramento starter, but unfortunately for them, their defense against this Rockets team isn’t much of an improvement.
Christian Wood is almost guaranteed a double-double, and Richaun Holmes availability doesn’t impact Wood’s upside here. Holmes may keep players like Marvin Bagley and Chimezie Metu from seeing a ton of minutes, but if Wood has even a decent night shooting, the resistance around the rim is going to be minimal. There is a reason the point total is so high and it’s not because of how good these players are on offense.
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ATL @ MIA
Trae Young (ATL) MORE 26.5 Points – Tyler Herro (MIA) MORE 21.5 Points
The Miami Heat defense continues to swarm and drown out opposing guards, yet Trae Young’s scoring ability still makes it possible he scores 30 points against anyone. The Hawks traded Cam Reddish to the Knicks, so now that Atlanta has even less offense, it creates this sense that Young will go above and beyond tonight. Since very few guards have been able to do that against Miami’s backcourt, it’s hard to see Young breaking that spell unless he literally shoots the lights out. It’s possible, but since scoring 56 points against the Trail Blazers, Young has yet hit more than one three a game.
Tyler Herro carried the Heat offense whenever he was in against the Hawks, so even though he only scored 21 points the first time around, he dropped 11 assists and made up for whatever shots he missed with added playmaking. If Jimmy Butler plays tonight, Herro’s playmaking will take a hit, but it should also allow him more space to take more shots.
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