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Scott Cullen provides his MLB DFS prop picks for July 16th, 2019 on Monkey Knife Fight. Make your DFS picks with his daily fantasy baseball advice.
Getting on base is the name of the game. It may have been popularized by Moneyball but the idea remains central to generating offense in Major League Baseball.
The top players when it comes to getting on base are a who’s who, for the most part. Mike Trout, Christian Yelich, Cody Bellinger, Carlos Santana. Wait, Carlos Santana? Yes, the career .250 hitter is hitting .293 this season, lifting his OBP to a career-high .413 which makes him an intriguing play for hits plus walks with the right matchups.
Some others with on-base percentages over .400 this season: Jeff McNeil, Rhys Hoskins, Juan Soto, and Kris Bryant. That’s the complete list of eight qualified hitters that get on base at least 40% of the time.
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Here are some more angles to consider for Tuesday’s full MLB schedule.
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L.A. DODGERS-PHILADELPHIA
OVER/UNDERS
Walker Buehler UNDER 6.5 STRIKEOUTS – As great as Buehler has been for the Dodgers, he doesn’t get as deep into games on the road and is averaging 5.9 strikeouts per game away from Dodger Stadium, accumulating seven or more strikeouts in just three of nine road starts.
TAMPA BAY-N.Y. YANKEES
OVER/UNDERS
CC Sabathia OVER 4.5 STRIKEOUTS – The veteran lefty has recorded at least five strikeouts in nine of 14 starts overall this season, including five of seven at home and six of his past seven starts overall. He’s averaging 5.9 strikeouts per game at Yankee Stadium this season and the Rays are just a little above average in terms of strikeout rate (22.6%).
WASHINGTON-BALTIMORE
OVER/UNDERS
Juan Soto OVER 1.5 HITS + WALKS – The rising Nationals star outfielder has a .389 on-base percentage on the road and has multiple hits plus walks in 14 of his past 20 games. Going against the Orioles, in all situations, is also a favorable matchup.
SAN DIEGO-MIAMI
OVER/UNDER
Hunter Renfroe OVER 1.5 TOTAL BASES – The Padres’ power hitter is slugging .618 on the road and while Marlins starter Trevor Richards has been solid enough, he’s been better away from home, too, so a good chance for Renfroe to pick up a couple of bags.
TORONTO-BOSTON
OVER/UNDERS
Andrew Cashner OVER 3.5 STRIKEOUTS – Making his first start for Boston, Cashner was good at the end of his run with Baltimore, posting a 1.41 ERA in his last five starts even with a modest strikeout rate of 3.6 per game in the last five. Here’s thinking that, with a strong team behind him, Cashner can get to at least four, which he has managed in eight of 17 starts this season, including the past two.
DETROIT-CLEVELAND
OVER/UNDERS
Carlos Santana OVER 1.5 HITS + WALKS – Even though Santana is better on the road, his .395 on-base percentage at home this season is still great and Tigers starting pitcher Ryan Carpenter has a 1.76 WHIP in 10 starts.
CINCINNATI-CHICAGO CUBS
RAPID FIRE
Javier Baez +0.5 runs + RBI vs. Anthony Rizzo – There is a bit of an advantage that left-handed hitting Rizzo holds against Reds right-handed starter Anthony DeSclafani, but not enough to count on his getting a run/RBI more than Baez.
ARIZONA-TEXAS
OVER/UNDERS
Lance Lynn OVER 6.5 STRIKEOUTS – In 10 home starts, the Rangers ace has averaged 6.7 strikeouts per game, but he has elevated his game in the past couple of months, with 8.5 strikeouts per game in his past 10 starts.
ATLANTA-MILWAUKEE
RAPID FIRE
Christian Yelich -0.5 total bases vs. Ronald Acuna Jr. – As good as Acuna is, and he’s slugging .536 on the road, it’s tough to compete with Yelich, who is slugging .868 at home this season.
N.Y. METS-MINNESOTA
OVER/UNDERS
Michael Pineda UNDER 5.5 STRIKEOUTS – While Pineda is a little more effective at home, his strikeout rate is lower, and 4.7 strikeouts per game at home is not enough to expect six-plus against the Mets.
Steven Matz UNDER 5.5 STRIKEOUTS – The Mets lefty has been brutal on the road this season, posting a 7.07 ERA and 1.74 WHIP, which makes it tough to count on him staying in the game long enough to matter and he’s averaging 3.8 strikeouts per road start as a result.
CHICAGO WHITE SOX-KANSAS CITY
OVER/UNDER
Eloy Jimenez OVER 1.5 TOTAL BASES – The White Sox rookie is slugging .466 on the road this season, but .580 overall since June 1. Royals starter Glenn Sparkman has had some good moments but has been inconsistent as a starter.
PITTSBURGH-ST. LOUIS
OVER/UNDERS
Jack Flaherty OVER 5.5 STRIKEOUTS – In 18 starts this season, Flaherty has struck out six 11 times, including six times in nine home starts and four of his past five starts overall.
SAN FRANCISCO-COLORADO
OVER/UNDERS
Trevor Story OVER 1.5 TOTAL BASES – Colorado’s shortstop has a slugging percentage of .607 at Coors Field and he’s due for a bit of a bounce back after going hitless in the past two games.
SEATTLE-OAKLAND
OVER/UNDERS
Khris Davis UNDER 21.5 TOTAL BASES – It’s not easy to hit in Oakland and the A’s designated hitter, who needs to pick up the pace a bit if he’s going to hit .247 again, has a rather modest .365 slugging percentage at home this season.
HOUSTON-L.A. ANGELS
OVER/UNDERS
Andrew Heaney UNDER 5.5 STRIKEOUTS – Perhaps expectations are higher because Heaney whiffed 28 hitters in his first three starts of the season, but he has 21 strikeouts in five starts since, so expecting six against an Astros team that is among the very best at making contact (17.6% road K%) is a big ask.
