RADIO
Some days the tilt is impossible to avoid; even though I picked the two winners yesterday, I still found a way to miss out on profiting off that slate. Gen G showed their steady, strong nature in taking down T1 and will now get to face off with DWG again, this time in the LCK finals. Meanwhile, in the LPL, the SNG express continued to roll, dropping a humbling 3-0 on Team WE. The LCK finals will be this coming Saturday, the 10th. At the same time, the LPL playoffs continue through the week. That's where we're at today.
Draftkings has dropped a two-game two-day slate for us today, and in the opener, the top half of the bracket continues with JDG meeting FPX. This game will be a rematch from week seven, where FPX took a 2-0 victory. These two teams have historically been back and forth, with FPX holding a 5-3 series edge in the Doinb era, but the game score is 13-10, indicating how close it has been. Tuesday morning, we'll get the SNG and TES World's semifinal rematch. TES had owned SNG in 2020 until the world's tournament when we saw SNG take them down 3-1, and then again this spring, SNG surprised on opening night with another beat down of this talented TES squad with a 2-0.
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 4:00 AM on Monday, April 5th, 2021. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other helpful info for the slate.
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Monday Match
5:00 AM: JDG (-155) vs. FPX (+120)
JDG has been so hot since the LNY break they only lost three games total, and two of those were in their loss to FPX in week 7. Outside of that loss and the 2-0 win over RNG, the back half of their schedule was bottom-loaded with bad teams, so we expected them to perform better in the second half of the split. FPX has continued to bounce up and down as their jungle situation ebbs and flows, but things are back on the upturn for them with Tian back in the saddle.
FPX should be the faster team out of the gate here as they have the better early game. FPX holds the advantage in rift herald, first turret, first three turrets, and GD@15. They have a slight edge in CSM and GPM as well. JDG counters with better dragon control and much better vision numbers. With Zoom to answer Nuguri in the top lane, some of the ease of access that FPX typically has with the herald will be nullified. Given that caveat, I think the team stats shake out pretty evenly.
The jungle matchup is going to be the most critical aspect of the match. Like the match versus RA, I think JDG's best chance to win here will be in Kanavi's ability to counter Tians early aggression. If JDG can weather that storm without surrendering kills, Kanavi will be ahead in farm and pacing, leading to more objectives for the side of JDG. As these playoffs now drawdown to the final six teams, the margins for error are microscopic. I think JDG's strength on the top side and jungle will be enough to hold off the early push from FPX. JDG can then answer with their better objective play around vision.
I think JDG takes this one 3-1. They are the better team fighting team, and they have years of experience together. The core of FPX remains unchanged since their world title run in 2019. Still, with incorporating Nuguri and running through three different junglers this split and back again, JDG has the edge inconsistency. FPX can certainly win; I think if Tian gets off those early ganks with a high success rate, FPX can snowball from there. This should be the more action-packed of the two matches on the slate, with both JDG and FPX with nearly 22 deaths per loss. I'll look to get my full stacks from this matchup in most of my lineups on Monday.
Top JDG Plays
- Kanavi- JNG - leads the team in KP% and is narrowly second in KS%.
- Loken - ADC - the KS% leader also pumps out insane damage for JDG.
- Yagao - MID - give him Zoey, and it's all over.
- LvMao - SUP - nearly 69% KP and he is the team's veteran shot-caller and emotional leader.
Top FPX Plays:
- Tian - JNG - leads FPX in KP% in games he has played.
- Crisp - SUP - right behind his jungler in KP%.
- Lwx - ADC - leads the team in KS%.
- Doinb - MID - watch out for his Kled.
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Tuesday Match
5:00 AM: TES (-150) vs. Suning (+115)
It isn't easy to chose which of these first quarterfinal matches I'm most looking forward to, but it might be this one. The top two early game teams in the league clash here on the other side of the bracket. TES with an average GD@15 of 2700 and SNG with 2200. This could be non-stop action and trading. Top Esports will be the ones looking to push the pace as most of their early leads are accomplished with their insane 91% first blood rate. SNG is more objective-focused with an 82% first herald rate. TES does have better tower numbers, but they often get those through brute force. SNG has a substantial edge in dragon numbers and vision numbers, while the baron percentages are similar.
This second quarterfinal comes down to TES's inability or unwillingness to adapt. They continue to play the way they play, no matter the meta or the results. The results have been very good, but when you're down to the LPL's final four, very good doesn't cut it. The SNGs, JDGs, EDGs, RNGs, and DWGs of the world aren't going to be outmuscled by TES the way the rest of the league is. SNG has played crisp, intelligent league of legends, and even if TES are running away with a game, they tend to over-push leads. I think SNG is playing too smart, and TES has a bit of IG in them, thanks to JKL.
Again the margins here are razor-sharp, and the pricing is such that you can ram both favorites in easily. I have no objections to playing all the TES you want tomorrow, but they are the lowest projected team on the slate and typically have poor team KP%, so if you do, I would have them as my small stack. With a death per loss of 20.5, TES lends some upside to SNG, but I still have them projected behind either of the teams from the first match.
Top SNG Plays:
- Huanfeng - ADC -his insane 42% KS is down in the playoffs, so I could see merit to fading him, but he still leads the team.
- SofM - JNG - his kill share is way up through six playoff games.
- ON - SUP - my man has performed very well the second half of the split.
- Bin - TOP - you know the dice comes up three as often as nine. Chinese memes aside, I do like his matchup.
Summary
- TLDR: JDG 3-1, SNG 3-1, I feel pretty confident in these two coming from my gut, and that's usually a #cursed feeling. I think anyone you ask will tell you all four of these teams could win the whole thing and have looked unbeatable at one time or another during the split.
- The pricing accommodates the slate's wide-open nature, and if you think we're getting five games in both series, you could have pieces of all four teams and win.
- Sorry I was late, but I was busy sweating out the end of the MLB slate. As it happens, Rotoballer has some premium content for other sports as well. We have a great collection of folks in the Slack chat sharp players, in addition to our experts who are always looking for ways to attack every slate.
- Good luck out there; everyone just a few more big playoff matches to go, and then we'll be on to the mid-season madness as the opening of the main stage of EU Masters starts on the 14th, and MSI kicks off at the start of May.
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