RADIO
I've made a pretty big deal about the playoff brackets and the impactions of all our games leading up to the final days of the season. Now we've finally arrived at the opening matches of spring split playoffs in the east. The LCK format is straightforward. T1 faces DRX with HLE taking on Nongshim; Damwon chooses one of those winners to play against. The other team will meet Gen G on the other side of the bracket. The LPL's Bracket system is just monstrous, with ten teams making it and a loser's bracket that kicks in after the semi-finals. Maybe just a lovely graphic can explain it better.
All matches will now be contested in a best of five format, and that's going to open up some exciting roster constructions. Over the weekend, DK hosted a four-game slate encompassing both matches in the LEC and LCS. The top ten finishers had zero ties, with a 2-2-2 construction being the winner. The standard 4-2 appeared three times, along with two instances of 3-3 and 3-2-1, 4-1-1 was the final build in the top ten. That contest did feature some close 3-2 series, and a big upset allowing for some standard style builds to be unique. Keep that in mind when prepping for this slate.
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Wednesday's Match
Wednesday 4:00 AM: HLE (-525) vs. Nongshim RedForce (+340)
If you all recall, last summer split, the LCK was very stratified, with the top four teams rarely losing to anyone outside of that exclusive club. This spring has brought about some change, but you can see the cream has again risen to the top by the end of the split. I have joked all split that the LCK is Damwon and dogshit, vulgar yes, but also not far from the truth. The other three teams in the LCK's new top four are all flawed in ways, and they have exposed some of those problems throughout the split. All that being said, they are still clearly head and shoulders above the rest of the league, and this bracket remains DWG's to lose.
Hanwa Life finished in third place and drew sixth-place finisher Nongshim Redforce in the opener. Hanwa was 12-6 with a plus eight-game differential and belonged near the top of the LCK's hierarchy. Nongshim, despite my high hopes for them, finished 7-11 with a negative six-game differential. HLE won both matches in the regular season for a collective 4-1 game score, one before Yohan became the full-time starter. HLE will have the side selection for this series, and they were 15-6 on the blue side during the regular season. Bad news for Nongshim, who were 7-14 on red, and the LCK as a whole was 57% win rate on the blue.
I've sorted all the team stats from 2-27, as that's when HLE decided to name Yohan the starter. Within that time frame, Nongshim has been the slightly better team in the early game. They post better first blood, first drake, rift herald, and GD@15 numbers while maintaining relatively even turret control. HLE has a better economy with higher GPM and CSM. Both teams total dragon and vision numbers are close, but HLE has a considerable edge in baron percentage.
Surprisingly, the team stats are pretty even, and no small part of that is likely due to Peanut's experience edge in the jungle matchup. The other advantage in this game set is Chovy over Bay. That will be Nongshim's undoing. Mid-lane priority is rising as ADC's continue to stay home and farm more, looking for later game item spikes. That means that Chovy translates his edge in the mid lane to the rest of the map as soon as possible. The rest of the map is honestly reasonably equal, with apologies to Deft, but Deokdam has been excellent this split.
Of the favorites, I have HLE projected just a bit behind T1. I usually place more stock in the opposition's death per loss numbers than I do the kills for a particular team, but in this instance, I think the aggression that T1 has been playing with will sway me more. NSRF, on the other hand, has the highest kill projections on the slate if they can get the win here. Unfortunately, I don't think they get more than one win in the best of five format, if any. If you believe NSRF can stretch this to a fifth game, either Peanut or Deokdam could be good one-off plays to differentiate on DK. I am confident that HLE take this down quickly and easily with a 3-1, so I won't have much Redforce unless I plan to MME.
Top HLE Plays
- Chovy - MID - leads the team in KP%, second in KS by 1.5%, and a stellar matchup makes me think Chovy will be the highest owned mid on the slate.
- Deft - SUP - surprisingly, he's only 1% behind Chovy's team-leading KP% while holding the edge over his talented mid in KS%.
- Vsta - SUP - nearly 70% kill participation makes him viable.
- Morgan - TOP - 64% KP is decent, and people may forget about him a bit with some of the other tops on the slate.
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Thursday's Matches
4:00 AM: T1 (-700) vs. DRX (+425)
There might not be two teams moving as swiftly in opposite directions as these two. Since March 13th, when T1 went back to the tried and true lineup of veterans, they have only a single game loss, and that was to AFS. In that time, they have swept three of the LCK's playoff teams, including two seeded above them. In that same time frame, DRX has won only two games, one from NSRF, who backed into the playoffs, and the other from SBG, who narrowly avoided finishing in last place. Can DRX turn it around?
Looking at the stats from the last three weeks, it looks grim for DRX. DRX has been a deficient early game team all split, and since bringing back the playoff roster, T1 has been the best early game team in the league. Much of DRX late-season struggles stem from their loss of late-game confidence. Up until week eight and their failure against Nonghsim, DRX was the second-best late-game team in the league. Since then, they have been the second-worst, including that massive throw versus SBG in the split's final game. To add insult to injury, T1 is now the second-best late game team in the league as their battle-tested lineup doesn't flinch in the face of adversity. I am quite confident in the sweep here for T1.
I don't think there is any reason, other than ownership, to roster DRX on Thursday. They have been in a tailspin, and T1 has been on a rocket ship to the moon. They will be behind early and have been lost late. T1 finished with 21 kills in 26 minutes versus DRX in game 2 of their week eight series, and I see more of that in the future. T1 has the highest kill projection of any of the favs, narrowly over HLE. They will likely be the highest-owned, especially given how HLE has performed from a fantasy standpoint over the season's final week. That being said, they are by far the safest pick to win of any of these teams on the slate, and I will likely have plenty of them. I have no concerns about them swapping rosters at the last minute, and if they inexplicably do, I'll be among the first people screaming into the aether on twitter.com.
Top T1 Plays:
- Teddy - ADC - 68%KP to go along with 33% kill share since this group came together.
- Faker - MID - 70 and 22 for the living legend in the mid lane, plus he knows Seraphine is busted. "Thanks for nothing, LS!" - The rest of the LCK (probably).
- Cuzz - JNG - leads the team in KP with 72%
- Keria - SUP - 68% KP and he popped off last game, nearly matching Teddy in fantasy output.
5:00 AM: Rare Atom (+105) vs. Invictus Gaming (-135)
The LPL playoffs kick off with a rematch from two weeks ago, where we saw Rare Atom sweep IG 2-0 from the blue side. As the higher seed, Rare Atom will again have side selection going into this matchup. They will need every edge they can find as they haven't found a win since defeating IG. RA lost 2-1 to LGD then followed that up with expected losses to both RNG and EDG. Since that defeat, IG has been on the uptick, albeit against subpar competition in TT, V5, and LGD. Is patch 11.5 negatively affecting RA, and can IG take advantage?
Yes, I believe that 11.5 is hurting RA, but unfortunately, I can't prove it. My evidence is primarily anecdotal; for instance, Iboy's most played champion for his career is Kaisa. He has nearly double the games on her than Ezreal, his next highest. Kaisa's presence and win rate in 11.5 are down both in the LPL and globally. Similar trends exist for a few of Fofo's big picks in mid-lane while Rookie's Syndra is rising. Mainly the Azir, and we all know how picking Azir every damm game went over for Rogue in the LEC this last weekend. Sample sizes are smaller at 11.5, but they are some worrying trends.
The team stats for the two I can't compare solely on 11.5 due to the vast differential in schedule strength. So we'll zoom back out to the default of "since lunar new year." RA has been better early with the edge in rift herald, first turret, first three turrets, first blood, and GD@15. IG has been better late with substantial leads in both drake and baron numbers, but RA predictably has the edge in vision numbers. In the first matchup, RA held a narrow lead at 15 minutes in game one before an overzealous dive from IG handed two kills over to RA for free. Game two saw IG jump out to the early lead before tossing it away at the 20-minute mark leading into an RA baron. The stats are pretty close, with each team having advantages over the other.
One thing IG has shored up in the second half of spring is their deaths per loss. Pre-break, they averaged 20 deaths in their losses, while post-break, that number falls to 15.6. With RA being one of our more controlled LPL teams, to begin with, so that hurts their scoring upside. Surprisingly, I have RA below both of the LCK favorites for kills. IG are second in kill projections for anyone and more than a kill ahead of both HLE and T1. These numbers are pointing me down the path of dog or pass here.
Maybe you will call foul for my IG fandom swaying my better judgment, but I picked RA to beat them in the last series. I think IG will come out on top in this playoff rematch, but it will be tight. This series, no matter who wins, is the most likely to go a full five games. IG will be a popular choice thanks to that, the Vegas odds, the underdog prices, and RA going 0-4 in the regular season's final week. Small IG stacks and one-offs will be popular. Rare Atom will be lower owned than IG here, but both teams will draw ownership. People will be looking to ram and jam T1, and rightfully so.
Notice how I left out the part about how we will be guessing who IG's starting ADC will be? That is most definitely because I don't want to hazard a guess about who it will be. Both Puff and Wink have similar champion pools with a ton of Varus, Aphelios, and Ezreal. If I had to guess, I'd say it will be Puff, and the start for Wink was a diversion to throw off any potential first-round playoff opponents. Puff also has a bit more Xayah in his champion pool, and that might just be enough to sway the decision. My confidence rating for that pick is about 10%, and so unless you're going the mme route, that adc position will be one to fade.
Top IG Plays:
- Xun - JNG - lead the team in both kill metrics for the guys we know will play.
- Rookie - ADC - second in KP% and third in KS%.
- Theshy - TOP - slightly ahead of Rookie in KS% and slightly behind in KP%.
Top Rare Atom plays
- Fofo - MID - 76% KP leads the team.
- Iboy - ADC - nearly 32% KS.
- Hang - SUP - second to Fofo in kill participation.
- Leyan - JNG - 67% KP and tenths of a percent ahead of Fofo for second in kill share percentage.
Summary
- TLDR: HLE 3-1, T1 3-0, IG 3-1. IG priced as dogs but favored to win could swing a lot of ownership their way. That would make swerving onto some RA stacks a good pivot.
- As I mentioned in the opener, many lineup variations cracked the top ten in last weekend's playoff contests. I wouldn't be surprised to see something similar here with IG/RA being so close one pop-off performance from Theshy, Fofo, Rookie, or Leyan could land them in an optimal lineup even in a five-game series loss.
- I've only been talking about the playoffs non-stop for a month, and now they're finally here. Be sure to tune in throughout the week as more contests pop up for these brackets. Let's get out there and find some GREEN.
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