RADIO
Another wild night on the rift with RA upsetting FPX, but FPX drug the series out so long that they still scored well. By the time game three ended in the RNG/EDG series, you almost forgot that LNG/LGD even happened today. T1 came back with a more experienced lineup to down KT in straight sets, and DWG struggled enough to score very well versus AFS. There are more big contests and matchups on tap for today too.
Every one of these matches is too close to call. I'm fully prepared to zero for five today. DRX and Brion are sure to be a nailbiter between two of the cardiac kings in the LCK. HLE and Gen G are second versus third place as the teams begin to position for playoffs. The LPL's actual toilet bowl with 16th place OMG versus 17th place RW starts the action off. BLG and TT are up next as they hover near the playoffs. The finale should be another exciting match with tremendous fantasy implications. TES and IG will battle it out in a premium cut that should feature plenty of fireworks as old friends, teammates, and rivals face off.
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 3:00 AM on Sunday, March 7th, 2021. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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LCK Matches
3:00 Dragon X (-325) vs. Fredit Brion (+230)
Both teams picked up some nice wins on Thursday and are back in business here on Sunday. Fredit Brion abused the ultra rookie version of the T1 roster with some safe, sound legends league. DRX took advantage of some KT tomfoolery in game two to score very well en route to a pleasant win. DRX is solidly in the top half of the league, and Fredit is trying to make a surprising playoff push. Let's see how they stack up.
Since returning from break, Brion has stepped up their game quite a bit. They have half of their entire season series wins in the last two and a half weeks. DRX has just been playing the same style of league all split. They are the LCK's cardiac kids. If you don't put them away early, then they will beat you late. That's something I don't think we see Brion do. They haven't been a particularly active early team. DRX should have the edge early with better rift heralds, first turret, first three turrets, and GD@15. Brion does lead DRX in first drake and total drakes, but DRX answers with a higher baron percentage.
I think what Brion has been best at is capitalizing on other teams mistakes, but DRX hasn't been prone to as many errors as some of their LCK counterparts. Since the break, these two have been the slowest of the slow in the LCK. Brion only gives up 15.25 deaths in their losses, whereas DRX gives over 17.25. Both teams are around 15 kills in their wins, and I think we all remember game one of the DRX/KT series was a 6-2 snoozer. Looking at the numbers and the teams involved, I believe DRX wins, but I don't think they have much upside.
With the prices on DRX, I might be of them entirely even though I like them to pick up the win. Brion's play has been so much better since the break, and they have focused heavily on their powerful bot lane. They live to pick up the win, their prices make anything else fit, have excellent team KP%, and have a bit more kill upside. This one sets up as a dog or pass spot for me in Gpp with small stacks to make my expensive pieces fit where I want.
Top Bro Plays
- Umti - JNG - third in both kill metrics.
- Hena - ADC - 35% kill share since the break is down from his season stats, but still excellent.
- Delight - SUP - 77% KP is second on the team.
6:00 AM: HLE (+150) vs. Gen G (-190)
I think it's entirely possible that Gen G was overlooking SBG a bit when they dropped the 0-2 on Friday morning. This second versus third match is likely what they spent more time preparing for, and I expect them to come out here at full strength. HLE looked good versus NSRF, even styling on them slightly with the Lillia mid in game two.
I'm looking forward to this showdown as I expect it will answer many questions about both of these two teams for the rest of the season. HLE picked up a 2-1 win in week two the last time these two met. Gen G has been the better early game team leading in first blood, rift heralds, first turret, and GD@15. HLE has better first three turret and dragon percentage, but Gen have a higher baron percentage and vision numbers. I give Gen G a slight edge in the team stats.
Hanwa has added Yohan to the starting rotation, and he now has a few matches under his belt, so I'm less worried about their consistency. Gen G has struggled since the LNY break, which goes back to before the loss to SBG. HLE also has a bit of history on their side from last year. If you look back, you see that DRX had the upper hand in the matchup, with Gen G taking four of the five series the two teams played and leading them in overall game score 11-7. Deft and Chovy were the two primary carries on that squad, if you recall.
HLE has looked and scored well, plus they have the history and side selection here. I expect them to be popular. Gen only gives up 15 deaths in their losses, but HLE likes to push the pace collecting 19 kills in their wins. Gen can score well, too, with HLE giving up 17.5 deaths in their losses. I can't see how HLE isn't chalked with everything going for them, and it's honestly hard to pick against them here. Unlike Brion, where I expect DRX to win but appreciate the upside and the pricing, I agree that HLE should win here. After disappointing half the dfs world on Thursday, Gen should be lower owned even though we are getting them at a considerable discount. It will be similar to the EDG/RNG match from yesterday, where the favorites will be lower owned.
Top HLE Plays:
- Deft - ADC - Leads the team in both kill metrics since returning from break.
- Vsta - SUP - third in KP%
- Chovy - MID - fourth in KP% and second in KS.
- Morgan- TOP - second in KP% since LNY.
Top Gen Plays:
- Clid - JNG - tops in KP% and second in KS%.
- Rascal- TOP - third in both kill metrics.
- Ruler - ADC - still leads the team in KP%.
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LPL Matches
2:00 AM: Rogue Warriors (-105) vs. OMG (-125)
The LPL early game carries on the tradition of being a bit of a stinker. Today we've got our two bottom teams in the league in a showdown for last place. OMG have tried very hard to pick up some wins, but they just seem understaffed in the talent-laden LPL. RW wasted half the split waiting for Betty and now has to get him integrated into the roster so they can try to make a playoff run in summer.
This match is either tough to analyze, or it's super easy, barely an inconvenience. On the one hand, I could explore the stats down to the precise detail, but these teams are both god awful. RW has the advantage of the blue side, and so they will get to grab up a power pick for either Haro or Betty. OMG have tried to play an active sort of league, a miniature version of RNG. They just lack the personnel to accomplish it. RW has the talent edge, which will likely be enough for them to take this one. If OMG can get ahead, I'm somewhat more confident in them being able to close. RW have had better early games since Betty joined, which is another reason I favor them. If they are ahead, they should be able to start fights on their terms.
I've got RW projected for 18 kills in a win and OMG at nearly 20. Both teams have good team KP% with 2.4 assists per kill. With neither team being competent, I expect this match to devolve into repeated skirmishes as whoever holds the lead struggles to close out with solid macro. This match will be messy. That's why I slightly lean to RW. This is another match to split exposure if multi-entering.
Top RW Plays:
- Haro - JNG - always a threat to run away with a game or two.
- Betty - ADC - Looked good on the Samira in his debut. I think they focus around bot lane.
- Kaixun - SUP - 70% KP with RW Shark in the LDL. 71% in his first LPL match.
Top OMG Plays:
- Aki - JNG - second in both kill metrics.
- Eric - ADC - leads the team in KS%.
- Cold - SUP - tied with AKI for second in KP%.
4:00 AM: TT(+190) vs. BLG (-260)
BLG as favorites, that's nearly as exciting to me as T1 or RNG last summer. Yes, I'm sarcastic here. I've been tilting this slate in advance since before the last one ended. There are so many pick-em types of games that I know I'm about to get 2/5 on my predictions. Both of these teams last played on Tuesday, and both were turned inside out by their opponents. TT had maybe the worst professional game I've ever seen in mental boom, and IG outclassed BLG. Now we'll see how both can bounce back from those humbling experiences.
BLG is the biggest favorite on the slate, but both of these teams sit outside the LPL playoffs right now, and only two series separate their records. Make no mistake; this is another close series. BLG hasn't been as active as TT in the early game, but they still maintain a better GD@15 and first blood rate. BLG is also better late with slight edges in total drakes and baron. One comfort to me is that since his LPL debut in spring 2019, Meteor hasn't lost a series to Xiaopeng.
I think you all know that I want BLG to be good so badly, and I do have some hope for them to grow into a summer split team. This is a very winnable match for them. They are the more talented and better-coached team. BLG losing to OMG before break was nearly inexcusable, but hopefully, it was a learning experience. This match reminds me of the LNG/LGD match from yesterday. One team is favored and should win, but they may struggle with it and are expensive. BLG is fadeable with a 17.25 kill projection, and TT could score well in an upset with a slightly better prediction and much better pricing.
Top BLG Plays:
- Zeka - MID - leads the team with 71%KP.
- Meteor - JNG - lower KP than his mid, but higher KS%.
- Biubiu - TOP - tremendous kill metrics for a top-laner, but he also has a very high death percentage. If you shoot your shot on TT, grab Chelizi in the counter matchup.
6:00 AM: IG (+145) vs.TES (-185)
Another tight matchup, but this one is between some of our top-tier teams. After their loss to FPX, TES has reeled off four straight sweeps and appears to be heading in the right direction. IG continues to be IG bouncing up and down as the wind takes them. The final LPL match will likely decide the day for many a dfs player.
Both teams project for 20 kills in a win, and unlike the EDG/RNG match where the teams tightened up a bit going into the big matchup, that's neither of these teams style. Last year after the acquisition of JKL, TES, and IG split, with TES besting IG 3-1 in the spring playoffs, IG took a 2-0 back in the regular summer season. IG has side selection, which is good for them, but TES has a better record on the red side than the blue. They make excellent use of counter picks, and that will negate IG's first pick edge some.
TES comes in with the best stats in the league; they best IG both early and late. Both top laners have struggled this split, and camping theshy until he tilts is a common strategy. Xun and Karsa are very differnt junglers. Xun will be looking to carry and Karsa to counter and get his laners ahead. Rookie has had a down split so far, but a matchup with Knight might be what he needs to activate. Bot lane I've got to shade to the side of TES, but much like IG in the top lane, if XUN visits early and often, JKL can become frustrated and attempt to bite off more than he can chew. With Kaisa and Xayah being very trendy right now, I favor JKL in the matchup. He can use their abilities to reposition himself to safety or to over aggress.
I favor TES here and will be prioritizing them in my lineups, but IG's ability to match any team in the world on a given day keeps them in play. Unlike some of the other matchups, I think this one will be chalkier on the side of TES. IG will be a bit lower owned with the SNG loss still stinging a bit.
Top TES plays
- Jackeylove - ADC - leads the team in KP% and KS%.
- Knight - MID - second in both metrics.
- Karsa - JNG - 61% KP and 19%KS.
- 369 - TOP - Worse numbers than Zhou, but anytime theshy plays, there's potential for INT!
Summary
- TLDR: DRX 2-1, HLE 2-1, RW 2-1, BLG 2-0 and TES 2-0. There is a reason to play any team on the slate today, and normally I would be fine with that, but I'll have a bit more action on today's slate with some tickets running in the 20$ on DK, so I wish it was a bit more cut and dried.
- DK again has done an admirable job with dynamic pricing to make JKL the most expensive adc, but I bet he'll still be the most popular captain. Play with your build path a bit today and try to figure out where your rivals will be going. Yesterday went to show again that what's supposed to happen doesn't always.
- WWWWIDE OPEN today; I'm sorry I can be more precise with my predictions and reasoning for you all.
- Back down to two games in the LPL tomorrow, there will be only three weeks left in the regular spring season. Likely the LPL will shift to 11.4 for Monday; I'll confirm before tomorrow's write-up.
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