Checking in with the Los Angeles Dodgers: Late May Update

May 27, 2014

RotoBaller Dan Sausville checks in with the LA Dodgers and provides fantasy baseball analysis for the Dodgers hitters, starting pitchers and bullpen.

It has been an eventful couple of weeks in Dodgertown, as they got back franchise player Clayton Kershaw, saw their multi million dollar investment (Alex Guerrero) get a piece of his ear bitten off during a minor league contest by one of his own teammates (Miguel Olivo), and watched their bullpen continue to struggle, at an alarming rate.

The team is still ranked in the top 10 in baseball in most statistical categories, but the pitching is mired in mediocrity. The bullpen has been the main culprit, thought to be the strongest component of this team. There has also been some bad performances by their 5th starter (Paul Maholom), the player they chose to go with, as opposed to bringing back last year's unsung hero Chris Capuano.

The Bullpen

The Dodgers bullpen was touted by everyone within the baseball world as having the potential to be one of the deepest, and most dominant bullpens in recent memory during Spring Training this year. As the Sporting News predicted here, this group just looked flat our scary. I also touted the group within my opening season article, but then the games started. After the first series, I warned that something was amiss with the pen here. It has carried over, and I will highlight those struggling below:

Brian Wilson - He has been downright dreadful, wrapping a pair of 2 week funks around a DL trip has resulted in a 7.71 era and 33 baserunners in just 16.1 IP.

Chris Perez - Perez has a 12.21 ERA in May, and has given up 14 hits in his last 7.1 IP. He is flat out not getting it done.

Chris Withrow - 8 walks in his last 8 innings, is really struggling in May after opening the year strong. Perhaps he is not ready for an expanded role, just yet.

Kenley Jansen - The #2 or #3 closer off the board in most leagues, Jansen is pitching like Armando Benitez circa his bases loaded 1 out every appearance days. This is the most alarming for fantasy owners, as his 6.14 ERA in May has been treacherous, and his 3.91 season ERA is not top notch closer type numbers. He is still racking up his strikeouts, with 37 in 23 IP, but he is giving up a hit an inning, and needs to pick it up to pay dividends for owners who used a top 10 round pick on Jansen.

What does this mean for fantasy owners? Holds need to be found elsewhere and Wilson and Perez as high strikeout setup guys for savvy GM's need to be moved on from. But, most importantly, leads are not safe anymore. With an older pitching staff, especially at the backend, this is becoming a problem. Cheap preseason options Dan Haren and Josh Beckett have both shown flashes of brilliance over the course of the young season, especially Beckett, whom I predicated was a great player to take a chance on here, lose a little bit of their value in the win column, because they are not equipped to go 8 innings every time out, and are handing the ball off to guys that are not getting it done. Beckett is still on my rosters, but unless he shows me he can go 7 + more consistently, or this pen turns it around, I doubt he will make it all year on my teams.

The Rotation

Business as usual here, for the Dodgers, and the return of Clayton Kershaw, as well as Hyun-Jin Ryu gives this team 5 legitimate starters, and can now push Paul Maholm to the bullpen, or perhaps the minors. Maholom has been the only lowlight on this staff, as he has posted a 5.02 ERA and just simply does not give the team a chance to win on most nights.

Josh Beckett is in the middle of a resurgence, and Dan Haren is settling into a useful role after showing some flashes of his old self early on. He is now on my radar as a spot starter, and Beckett is entrenched into my rotations.

Zack Greinke is off to a Cy Young type of start with a 2.02 ERA and 65 strikeouts in 58.1 IP. He is a fantasy ace, and if he was the 8th pitcher off the board in your draft, then he was a STEAL. He is the ace on a couple of my staffs, and I am enjoying a solid season with those teams, as I was able to get some hitting early, and get #1 numbers out of the 9th pitcher taken in my draft. All 5 of these guys are roster worthy, and 3 of them are must plays every turn. Beckett is pretty much there, and Haren is a must start at home.

The Lineup

Dee Gordon - Coming back to earth in May, hitting .247, Gordon is still leading the league in stolen bases, and has been an absolute gem for where he was drafted in most leagues. I'm not even considering selling him right now, especially because I do not think this offense has even approached doing what it can do. Enjoy the 100+ runs as well as days like the one he had against Matt Cain earlier this month below:

[iframe height="250" width="100%" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/5yR50-fUCGc"]
 
It is easy to watch that and say to yourself, 'wow this guy can steal 3 bases in a game', but there is much more too it than that. Gordon shows he is apart of the new age leadoff hitter, swinging at the first pitch of the game and lining a base hit, something most hitters never used to do. He then proceeds to take second on a slide step fastball, impressive. He then figures out the sign sequence from the catcher and picks out a breaking ball to steal third on, very Derek Jeteresque. Then, he forces a pulled slide step cutter the next time he is on base, allowing him to take second pretty easily. This guy is a difference maker, even against one of the games most respected starting pitchers. Defense is another story, but for fantasy purposes, Dee Gordon is here to stay.

Carl Crawford - Finally earning some of that money he has made over the last few years, Crawford has been tearing it up in May hitting .333 with 4 HR and 5 SB in the month as well. He is among the hottest players in the game, and is looking like he's getting back to the star he once was. Making me wish I took him when he was available so late in drafts, hopefully you lucked out and took a chance on him.

Hanley Ramirez - Underwhelming so far in 2014, Hanley has not gotten close to his .350 average a year ago, hitting just .250 so far. He does has 4 SB and 7 HR, but a borderline first round pick in most leagues, Hanley has some work to do to catch up to his value. He has always been a streaky player, but has shown in his career that he has trouble working his way out of slumps once he gets deep into them.

I still believe that the power and speed are still there, but he has not stolen a bag in May, and is hitting just .221 in the month. He is starting to make me worried, but as I said I am still buying. If something presents itself where you can get him for half the price of his preseason expectations, go ahead and get him. More on Ramirez in the next installment.

Yasiel Puig - .418 with 7 HR, 3 SB, and 23 RBI in just 20 games in May, Puig is the hottest player in the MLB. He is destroying everyone in his path, and has been making some incredible defensive plays in the outfield as well, showcasing why some believe he will be among the games elite in the next 5 years. Puig has vaulted his season average up to .347 with 10 HR and 38 RBI, and is head and shoulders above his teammates for offensive MVP so far in 2014. Watching him hit like this, it makes you wonder how good this team can really be if Hanley, Puig, and Matt Kemp are all on track at the same time. A case could be made to sell high here on Puig, but if you paid his price preseason, this is what you were expecting, and now is the time to just sit back and enjoy blasts like the one he hit off of the Diamondbacks last week below:

[iframe height="250" width="100%" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/Z1sx-7Lz2lY"]

Matt Kemp - .267, 5 HR, 5 SB is what Kemp has done since his return. Spot playing time has slightly limited his at bats, but this is exactly where we thought he would be at this point. Kemp has hit .303 in May, but has only hit 1 HR in the month. He has a 3 HR game that is skewing his numbers, but the uptick in average shows Kemp is rounding back into form. Months ago I said mid to late May would be the time to pounce on Kemp if you could not get him for the right price on draft day, and that time is now. I still believe Kemp is a fantasy force down the stretch in 2014, and you are running out of time to get first round value out of him over the course of the second half. Buy now!

Juan Uribe - Just placed on the 15 day DL, Uribe has done nothing but justify the Dodgers faith in him by hitting .303 with 4 HR and 17 RBI. Uribe is a clubhouse guy getting it done on the field, and the team will surely miss him in the lineup, but should be back soon and reclaim the third base job. Look for Justin Turner and Chone Figgins to claim the at bats in his absence. They are NL only league worthy, or the deepest of leagues.

Adrian Gonzalez - The unsung hero of the group, Gonzalez is showing an uptick in power in 2014 with 12 HR in 51 games. This pace puts him over 30 for the year, which would be the first time he has passed that number since 2010. Gonzalez is hitting .272 a bit lower than usual, but shows he is more committed to driving the baseball. He has also driven in 36 runs, putting him on pace for over 110, a number he has only reached twice in his career. He is outproducing his preseason expectations by a wide margin, and is a quiet buy candidate as players take Gonzalez for granted. He could be in for an all-star berth, and perhaps a deep postseason run. Enjoy the ride with one of the games most professional hitters.