Second Half Breakouts for Fantasy Baseball - Andy Smith's "My Guys" (2026)

July 6, 2026

Andy's second-half fantasy baseball breakouts for 2026. These are all MLB hitters and pitchers he's trying to get on his rosters via waiver wire or trade including Carson Benge, Jesus Luzardo, and more.

The 2026 MLB All-Star Break is just days away. Through the first half of the season, we have seen players like Jordan Walker enjoy a long-awaited post-hype breakout campaign while pitchers such as Parker Messick and Kyle Harrison are looking like the early-season waiver-wire wonders.

In this piece, I will spotlight six players I want on all of my rosters in the second half. These players fall under a wide range of options, such as waiver-wire options (like the relief pitcher), buy-low targets, and even "buy-at-price" targets, as their metrics suggest they could be in store for a dominant finish to the season.

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Kazuma Okamoto, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays

Kazuma Okamoto was one of my favorite players to draft if you opted to wait for a third baseman or wanted a corner infield with power upside. Unfortunately, the start of his MLB career did not go as planned, as the infielder endured some serious growing pains while adjusting to MLB pitching. In April, Okamoto posted a rough .200/.280/.322 line with a low .602 OPS over 100 plate appearances.

During this month, Okamoto hit just three home runs and held a 29:10 K:BB. Then in May, the struggles lingered as Okamoto posted a .210/.304/.470 line with a slightly higher .774 OPS.

However, since this slow start, the 30-year-old has begun to look like his advertised self. Since the start of June (his last 28 contests), Okamoto has posted a strong .287/.354/.535 slash line with four doubles, seven home runs and a .889 OPS. While his hefty 30.1% K% has lowered his floor in points leagues, his raw power upside has begun to show in the box score.

While his sample size in the majors is not large, Okamoto was a high-end power hitter in the NPB and is finally showcasing that talent in North America.

Currently, under the hood, Okamoto has generated an elite 14.9% barrel rate (91st percentile) and a 49.5% hard-hit rate (88th percentile). His .452 xSLG places him in the 72nd percentile, and his 73.2 mph average bat speed places him in the 64th percentile among qualified hitters.

His overall .225 xBA places him in the 18th percentile, which is not only very impressive but also improving by the day. As shown in the visual below, Okamoto is showing far more success against fastballs and offspeed pitches since June 1, which bodes well for his second half.

Lastly, what makes Okamoto an even more intriguing "buy" candidate is his elite Pull AIR%. While he is not only hitting the ball hard, he has also optimized his swing, which has allowed him to go yard 19 times in the first half. His 26.2% Pull AIR% places him in the elite class of hitters and will continue to play well with his high-end barrel and hard-hit rate.

His high whiff tendencies do hurt him in points leagues, but those needing a high-impact power bat should target Okamoto. His low batting average on the surface may allow you to still acquire him for a lower price.

Carson Benge, OF, New York Mets

The other hitter to target in trades at a higher price (or potentially the waiver wire in those shallow leagues) is Carson Benge of the Mets. Benge turned heads in his MLB debut, going 1-for-3 with a home run and stolen base in his MLB debut on Opening Day. However, over his next 29 games, the former top-ranked prospect would post a low .174/.216/.228 line with just one home run.

This slump sent him to the waiver wire in most leagues, but those who held on have begun to reap the rewards. Since this slump, Benge has looked quite comfortable, carrying a .293/.349/.454 line with an .804 OPS, nine doubles, eight home runs, and five stolen bases.

However, while managers may need to pay a higher price to acquire him given his current surge, he could still be had at a fair price, given the untapped upside in his profile.

Through his first 353 PAs in the big leagues, the former 19th overall pick has generated a dominant .285 xBA (nearly30 points higher than his base BA) and a .449 xSLG, which is much higher than the .396 SLG in his current box score.

While Benge has yet to pull the ball at a minimal rate (12.1% Pull AIR%), he has generated a 92nd-percentile LA Sweet-Spot% and posted an above-average Squared-Up%.

This is a former top prospect who hit 15 home runs and swiped 22 bags over his first "full" MiLB season last summer (across High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A). Benge has the profile to produce an elite batting average while pushing for a 20/20 campaign.

Given his growing pains, managers looking for a potential high-end OF3 could still acquire Benge at an OF4/OF5 price tag.

Last year in this same column, I recommended Ben Rice as a second-half breakout. Benge has the path to putting together a similar conclusion to this season.

Brandon Nimmo, OF, Texas Rangers

The final hitter we will spotlight is one of the best "buy-lows" in all of fantasy. Brandon Nimmo has been a popular high-floor asset in five-outfielder leagues as he is a safe bet to hit 15+ home runs, chip in a strong batting average, and swipe double-digit bags. However, his first stint in Texas has not gone as planned, as he has held a low .258/.329/.413 line with eight home runs and three stolen bases over 84 games.

Despite the subpar play, the 33-year-old should be viewed as a top trade candidate in all formats. Among hitters, there may not have been a more unlucky hitter in baseball than Nimmo. Per Baseball Savant, Nimmo places in the 93rd percentile (or higher) in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and hard-hit rate. His .293 xBA is nearly 40 points higher than his surface-level stat, and his .527 xSLG is more than 100 points higher than his base .413 SLG.

In relation to his production last season (where he posted a .262/.324/.436 line), his xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA are all higher in 2026 by a wide margin, suggesting that when his production turns around, it will turn around fast.

Over his last 15 games, this expected production has begun to show in the box score, as he has held a .279/.333/.475 line with seven doubles. Managers needing a boost to their outfield should not wait long to pick up Nimmo.

The 33-year-old has the upside to price a near .280+ batting average for the remainder of the season and push for a 20/15 season.

Logan Henderson, SP, Milwaukee Brewers

The first starting pitcher may still be on the waiver wire in the shallowest of leagues like Benge, but will likely need to be acquired via trade for those in 12+ team leagues. Henderson debuted in the majors last summer and showed high-end upside, logging 25 1/3 innings (five starts) with a 1.78 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP. During this short stint, the right-hander struck out 33 hitters.

However, injuries limited his workload. In 2026, Henderson has faced similar troubles, logging just 23 innings (five starts) with a 2.74 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP. Like in 2025, the former top prospect has showcased a high-end strikeout total, totaling 30 while walking just 6.7% of hitters.

Henderson is currently on the injured list with a back injury but is set to return to the bump later this week ahead of the All-Star break. Given his minimal track record of success in the big league and lengthy injury history, Henderson can likely be acquired at a very low trade cost, making him a top target for the second half.

On a per-inning basis, you may not find a pitcher with as much upside at a low trade cost.

So far this season, Henderson has generated a sharp 2.98 xERA, .218 xBA,  and a 28.7% whiff rate, suggesting that his current production is actually very sustainable. As he did in his first taste of the majors, Henderson has relied on a four-pitch pitch mix, with his four-seamer and changeup taking up just under 75% of his pitch usage.

His four-seamer has generated a high 28.4% whiff rate and a .264 xwOBA, down from the .304 xwOBA it posted in 2025. His primary breaking ball, his changeup, has posted a high-end 33.8% whiff rate with a sparkling .211 xwOBA (compared to the .284 xwOBA it posted back in 2025).

Even though the 24-year-old has only logged 48 1/3 total innings in the majors during his career, he has been nothing short of dominant, carrying a 2.23 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and a 63:14 K:BB. The buy window will close fast, and he has the upside to put together a true breakout showing in the second half.

Jesus Luzardo, SP, Philadelphia Phillies

The other starting pitcher I want on my teams for the second half is a more traditional "buy-low," like Nimmo. Luzardo is coming off a career season in 2025, in which he logged a season-best 183 2/3 innings with a 3.92 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 216 strikeouts, the second-most in the National League.

However, he has been unable to live up to this production through the first half of the 2026 season. Across 103 1/3 innings, the southpaw has posted a hefty 3.75 ERA wth a 1.27 WHIP. However, there is much reason to believe his early-season struggles (which have inflated his ratios) will decline significantly down the stretch.

Over the first 43 2/3 innings of work this season, Luzardo posted a rough 5.77 ERA with a 1.40 WHIP. While he continued to showcase high-end strikeout upside (57), his ratios made him unstartable in standard leagues. However, since then, Luzardo has carried a sharp 2.26 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and a 68:21 K:BB (over 59 2/3 innings).

While managers may be a bit timid to trust him for the remainder of the season, savvy managers should act quickly to secure a potential high-end SP2 for the final months of the season. Under the hood, Luzardo possesses some of the best metrics among starting pitchers. Per Baseball Savant, Luzardo has generated a 3.05 xERA, .216 xBA, and a 30.0% hard-hit rate, all of which place him in the 80th percentile or higher.

His 3.05 xERA is actually nearly 30 points lower than his 2025 mark. In terms of whiff upside, his 32.0% whiff rate places him in the 90th percentile, and his 28.6% K% puts him in the 89th percentile among qualified pitchers.

He is also limiting barrels at a 5.5% rate and generating groundballs at a high 51.6% rate (88th percentile).

It's not often fantasy managers can acquire an elite strikeout asset that also possesses one of the best xERAs and hard-hit rates in the sport. Expect his recent surge to continue over the final months of the season.

Jesús Luzardo, K'ing the Side in the 2nd ✝️🦎 pic.twitter.com/FjJ99oXSK1

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 5, 2026

Luzardo is more of a bounce-back than a traditional "breakout" for the second half, like Nimmo, but both could be league-winners as their metrics suggest they have gotten extremely unlucky.

Garrett Whitlock, RP, Boston Red Sox

Rounding out this list will be my relief pitcher. Last season in this same column, I recommended Daniel Palencia, who was on the verge of taking over the ninth-inning role in Chicago (which he eventually did) and was a high-end relief pitcher down the stretch. However, this year, I want to spotlight an option that is widely available across Yahoo leagues.

With the Red Sox trending toward being active sellers at the deadline, their top closer, Aroldis Chapman, is all but likely to join a contender over the next few weeks. Following a trade, their current setup man, Garrett Whitlock, could hold must-start value down the stretch.

The right-hander has already been a high-end asset in saves+holds leagues but could emerge as a top-12 option for saves-only leagues. Through 28 innings this season, Whitlock has held a strong 2.57 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, with a 28.8% K% (32 strikeouts) while adding 14 holds with one save.

The 30-year-old has shown elite command, walking only 5.4% of the hitters he has seen while posting a strong 29.7% whiff rate, suggesting his K% should remain stable over the second half. Lastly, Whitlock has also generated a dominant 30.1% hard-hit rate with a 5.5% barrel rate.

Last summer, Whitlock was just as sharp, earning 25 holds with a 2.25 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP over 72 innings of high-leverage work.

Managers needing saves should not wait to pick up Whitlock. Whitlock has the potential to be a must-start, top-12 closer as soon as the flamethrower lefty in the bullpen is shipped to a contender.

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