Josh Friedman’s Bold Predictions – 2021 Fantasy Football

Josh Friedman gives his bold predictions for the 2021 fantasy football season.

Bold is in the eye of the beholder.

When it comes to “bold” predictions, some fantasy pundits go for shock value. Others play it safer, opting for calls with close to a 50% chance of coming true. Perhaps the industry needs to create a blue-ribbon panel to decree what qualifies as a bold prediction -- not to mention a breakout, bust, or sleeper. It’s about time one of those panels did something useful.

For now, I’ll just rely on the standard a Supreme Court justice once applied to pornography: I know it when I see it. These predictions are longshots to varying degrees, but in each case, I’d bet the chances are greater than the fantasy hivemind would have you believe.

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Kendrick Bourne Posts a Career Year

In San Francisco, clutch receiver Kendrick Bourne was locked in as the third option. After signing with the Patriots as a free agent, he could quickly outshine Nelson Agholor and Jakobi Meyers to become New England’s top dog. Bill Belichick brought him in for a reason.

Bourne, preparing to enter his fifth season, is already clicking with quarterback Cam Newton.

Though Bourne’s surface numbers have never been gaudy – or for that matter, fantasy-relevant beyond ultra-deep leagues – his performance on key plays stands out. Of Bourne’s 137 career catches for the 49ers, 73% went for first downs, compared with rates of 53% for Agholor and 64% for Meyers.

The Pats figure to remain a run-oriented attack, especially if Newton staves off Mac Jones as the starting QB. Still, with the versatility to play in the slot or line up wide, Bourne should earn enough playing time and targets to put up a line of around 65-750-5. That wouldn’t live up to the 1,000-yard breakout he sees for himself but it would more than justify his average draft position of 327 in PPR leagues.

Antonio Brown Outscores Mike Evans

After joining Tampa Bay in 2020, Antonio Brown posted a 45-483-4 line over eight games. Doubling that puts his 2021 numbers at 90-966-8, plenty respectable for a fantasy 10^th-rounder.

OK, perhaps this simplistic projection shows why I never got past Algebra II in high school. Extrapolations can be dangerous, especially when applied to 33-year-old receivers.

In Brown’s case, however, a bullish outlook is justified. Last year, his role in the offense and his rapport with Tom Brady seemed to grow by the week. Over the final three games, Brown totaled 20 receptions, 266 yards, and four touchdowns.

His second-half production was no shot from the blue. In his Pittsburgh prime, Brown reeled off six straight seasons with triple-digit receptions and more than 1,200 yards. He’s unlikely to reach that stratosphere again but he can handily outperform the cautious consensus compiled by FantasyPros.

Evans, meanwhile, won’t bust to the point of ruining rosters. He has never failed to scale 1,000 yards and in 2020, he logged a personal-best 13 touchdowns. Even so, stiffer competition for targets and regression from his unsustainable touchdown rate will probably yield unsatisfying results.

Myles Gaskin Is a Top-12 PPR Running Back

Myles Gaskin is climbing up draft boards and generating buzz as an upside RB2 or flex option. The third-year Miami Dolphin should be seen as a clear-cut RB1 in PPR leagues.

If he stays healthy, Gaskin will get a hefty workload. He saw 18.3 touches per game last year, ranking ninth in the NFL for the position, according to data compiled by Lineups.com. The tally approached 20 a game after the first two weeks of the season when Jordan Howard was siphoning action in the red zone. From Week 3 on, Gaskin was a top-10 running back in fantasy points per game.

Free agent Malcolm Brown was added to share some of the load, but the Dolphins gave Gaskin a vote of confidence by skipping the running back position in this year’s NFL draft until the end of day three.

Though Gaskin missed four games in 2020 with an MCL sprain, then two more when he went on the Covid-19 list, he came back to finish out the season in fine shape.

Tyler Higbee Is a Top-Eight PPR Tight End

Remove tight end teammate Gerald Everett from the target mix and swap in quarterback Matthew Stafford for Jared Goff.

All of a sudden, Tyler Higbee just might become something resembling the monster averaging 21.4 points a game over a five-game stretch at the end of 2019 -- when Everett was hobbled -- instead of the disappointment who managed a mere 8.5 points per week in 2020.

Stafford has leaned on his tight ends often over the years. T.J. Hockenson was the Lions’ second-leading pass-catcher last year. The loss of Cam Akers to injury could also ensure a prominent role for Rams tight ends.

With Everett now in Seattle, the depth chart behind Higbee is more of a mystery than a threat. Look for the 28-year-old to bounce partway back to his late-2019 pace, putting up a line of about 65-750-6.

Jalen Hurts Is a Top-Five Quarterback

Running quarterbacks have been called a cheat code but they’re more like the clearest path to success. You’re not cheating if you grab one or two of them -- you’re cheating yourself if you don’t. And the fantasy math is far too obvious to be a code.

Jalen Hurts, entering his second year, might be the most undervalued dual-threat. He showed what he can do as a starter at the end of 2020, spurring the Eagles to trade Carson Wentz.

Ignore the first three-quarters of last season, when Hurts was still learning the offense. Once he became the starter, he averaged 23 fantasy points per game over the final four weeks. In a full year, that would have put him above Russell Wilson and almost at Deshaun Watson’s level.

This could be another case where such extrapolation isn’t crazy. Much of Hurts’ late-season value came from the 68 yards a game he averaged on the ground, a skill that stabilizes his fantasy floor. Even in his worst game as a starter, he scored a respectable 16.3 fantasy points. Though his passing-efficiency metrics were ugly, they should be evaluated against his aggressive depth-of-target numbers.

What’s more, young running QBs often sharply improve their accuracy as they adjust to facing pro defenses, notes ESPN’s Bill Barnwell. Hurts gets a favorable environment to do just that, with an offensive line due for better health, likely year-two improvement from slot receiver Jalen Reagor, and a new top weapon in first-round draft choice DeVonta Smith.

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