RADIO
Thanks for joining me here at RotoBaller PGA DFS family! Ok, how awesome was the BMW Championship? We expected Olympia Fields to be fairly tough, but WHOA! The U.S. Open-like scoring conditions were a nice change of pace (although maybe not great for our DFS lineups) and ultimately produced a dramatic finish between two of the best golfers in the world, Jon Rahm and Dustin Johnson.
After DJ made an unbelievably clutch putt to send the BMW into a playoff, Rahm struck back by making an almost impossible 66-footer on the first playoff hole. It was the Spaniards second huge win since the restart. The sizzling finish sends us into this week's TOUR Championship in fine form, as the top 30 players on the PGA Tour will be fighting it out for the FedEx Cup and $15 million!
Horse For The Course is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For my favorite DFS plays of the week check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our amazing PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: NICE for an extra discount at checkout!
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TOUR Championship Overview
After a season unlike any other, a FedEx Cup champion will be crowned this week in Atlanta. The top-30 players in the FedEx Points standing head to East Lake in hopes of capturing the HUGE $15 million payday that comes with winning the FedEx Cup.
Some will have a much better chance than others, as the TOUR Championship will use the "Staggered Start" format for the second consecutive year. Meaning that players atop the points standings will start this week with an actual advantage on the leaderboard. This week, Dustin Johnson heads to Atlanta on top of the points list and will start the TOUR Championship at 10-under par, with Jon Rahm just behind him at eight-under par. We work our way down to the players at the bottom of the points standings like Billy Horschel and Cam Champ that will be starting at the traditional even par. Needless to say, this format - in addition to the very short field and no-cut nature of this event - presents some unique challenges from a DFS perspective, challenges which we will dive into throughout the week here at RotoBaller.
You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. And be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
The Course: East Lake Golf Club
Par 70 - 7,346 Yards, Greens: Bermuda
There is tons of history at East Lake. The Donald Ross design is where Bobby Jones perfected his game and has been the permanent host of the TOUR Championship since 2004. East Lake isn't really tricky, but it does play fairly tough for these guys. Players will need to be strong both off the tee and on approach to have a chance this week.
Something to consider this week when constructing your DFS lineups is that this isn't a course where players are (usually) going to go crazy low, with the winning score typically coming in at 10 to 12 under par prior to last year's scoring format change.
Recent Champions & Winning Scores
- 2019: Rory McIlroy (-18)
- 2018: Tiger Woods (-11)
- 2017: Xander Schauffele (-12)
- 2016: Rory McIlory (-12)
- 2015: Jordan Spieth (-9)
The Horse
Xander Schauffele (Starting Position: -3)
DraftKings: $8,900
FanDuel: $9,500
Notable Course History: 2nd ('19), T7 ('18), Win ('17)
I don't know that Xander can actually win this week - his starting position of three-under par makes that a very big ask - but the X-Man definitely has a strong chance to make a big move in Atlanta. Schauffele has been superb in his previous trips to East Lake, posting a victory in 2017 and going T7-T2 in his subsequent Tour Championship starts while amassing the best East Lake scoring average in this week's field... a 67.75 over three starts.
Xander has kinda just been flying under the radar as of late, consistently posting very solid finishes, but failing to take down a tournament. He's gained an average of 5.7 strokes T2G over his last five starts, a strong mark when considering that he truly hasn't been firing on all cylinders.
His starting position should force Xander to be aggressive from the first tee this week and that might be a good thing for a player that is sometimes almost too patient in some situations. DFS players will flock to those at the top of the board this week, but Schauffele's solid form and impressive course history makes him my favorite player from the "back of the pack" this week.
The Ponies
Dustin Johnson (Starting Position: -10)
DraftKings: $15,200
FanDuel: $14,400
Notable Course History: T29 ('19), 3rd ('18), T17 ('17), T6 ('16), T5 ('15)
Do any of you guys really wanna bet against Dustin Johnson right now? I know I don't, especially when he's being spotted a lead on the field. Of course, things aren't that black and white this week, as in order to roster Deej in DFS we must be willing to pay an extremely high price.
Johnson's history at East Lake is very solid and includes three finishes inside the top-six since 2015. Motivation is always a factor that we must consider when evaluating TOUR Championship history, but DJ's motivating factors this week shouldn't be questioned. He has the chance the nab his first FedEx Cup with a win - not to mention $15 million - and can close out an extremely impressive post-layoff stretch of play that includes two wins and two runner-up finishes in his last six starts.
I'm a believer that Johnson's "A Game" is better than anyone else's and he's certainly been bringing his best over the past month. DJ will start this week at 10-under par - two shots clear of his nemesis from last week Jon Rahm - and the stage is set for a big week. However, his DFS price tag is MASSIVE and rostering DJ is basically stating that you believe he is going to win this tournament.
Justin Thomas (Starting Position: -7)
DraftKings: $11,900
FanDuel: $12,000
Notable Course History: T3 ('19), T7 ('18), 2nd ('17), T6 ('16)
If you want to pivot away from DJ at the top of the salary scale (or simply just can't afford him), Justin Thomas immediately jumps out as a strong option. JT was the man in DJ's position last year, but failed to emerge with the FedEx Cup despite starting at 10-under par for the week. Thomas didn't play bad - logged a T3 - but just couldn't outlast a charging Rory McIlroy. Maybe this year JT will play the role of the spoiler, as a three-shot starting deficit certainly isn't insurmountable for a player of his caliber.
Thomas has been straight money at East Lake throughout his career and has never finished worse than T7 in four Tour Championship appearances since 2016. His results since winning the WGC-FedEx St. Jude have been rather pedestrian by his standards, but this would be a tremendous spot for him to break out of his "mini slump". JT has continued to strike the ball well over his last three starts and we can place the blame for his underwhelming finishes mostly on an uncooperative putter, as he's lost strokes on the greens in three of his last four starts.
Thomas himself is walking proof that starting this thing with a lead doesn't necessarily equal a win. His sterling track record at East Lake and explosive scoring ability makes him a serious candidate to win this thing.
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Rory McIlroy (Starting Position: -3)
DraftKings: $9,700
FanDuel: $10,200
Notable Course History: Win ('19), T7 ('18), Win ('16)
It's hard to have a course history article this week without discussing Rory McIlroy. Rory has won twice at East Lake since 2016 with a T7 sandwiched between those two victories.
McIlroy hasn't found his pre-COVID form since the restart and we've all been wondering what's up. Well, we might have figured it out last week when Rory announced that his wife was due with the couple's first child at any moment. That might explain why Rory's game hasn't been in top form as of late and it's also a little concerning, as McIlroy has stated that he won't hesitate to leave any golf tournament to be by his wife's side for the delivery of their child, which does make him a WD risk this week.
If you are willing to gamble with that risk, McIlroy is a high-upside play and is the type of player that is capable of running down those that are starting at the top of the leaderboard.
Tony Finau (Starting Position: -2)
DraftKings: $8,200
FanDuel: $9,000
Notable Course History: 7th ('19), T15 ('18), T7 ('17)
As we move on down the board, we're getting into the "players that probably can't realistically win the tournament, but can accumulate DFS points for us" category. Though Tony Finau will be extremely hard-pressed to exit East Lake with a victory this week, I still love his chances of being a profitable play for us in this spot.
Finau's game log has been marked with highs and lows since the restart. He heads to Atlanta on the heels of an impressive outing at the BMW, where a final-round 65 spiked him into a fifth-place finish at Olympia Fields. He'll bring that momentum to a layout where he's performed admirably in each of his three previous appearances and possesses a 68.83 scoring average. Finau has gained strokes T2G in nine of 10 tournaments since the restart and leads this week's field in Par-4 scoring on holes measuring 450-500 yards over long-term measurements.
Billy Horschel (Starting Position: E)
DraftKings: $5,700
FanDuel: $7,000
Notable Course History: 2nd ('18), Win ('14), T7 ('13)
Billy Horschel doesn't always qualify for the Tour Championship, but when he makes it to East Lake he certainly makes his presence known. Billy Ho has a win, a second, and a T7 in three career starts on the Atlanta track and his East Lake scoring average of 67.83 is second only to Xander Schauffele in this week's field.
Horschel ran into the buzzsaw that is Jim Herman a few weeks ago at the Wyndham to log a hard-luck second in Greensboro. He once again played well early last week at the BMW before fading over the weekend. His recent form and course history makes him the most desirable value play on the board this week, but he will also undoubtedly be the most popular. We will see TONS of DJ/Horschel lineups this week, so if you do pull the trigger on Billy Ho, try to differentiate as much as possible throughout the rest of your roster.
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