January 19, 2018

Leo assesses hot streaking NBA players in week 14, and whether they can continue the good fortune in the weeks ahead.

Another day, another dollar. Or in this case—another week, another heat check. Statistical analysis has shown evidence that the so-called “hot-hand fallacy” isn’t a fallacy at all. But of course, we already knew that, right? On Tuesday night, Devin Booker scored the last 21 points for the Suns in the fourth quarter. And there’s also Klay’s legendary 37-point third quarter.

Plenty of players have been catching fire over the past week and we’re here to analyze their performances. We’ll look at some surging players and try to make an educated guess on whether their recent level of play is sustainable or not. Then we’ll suggest some trades that we think offer realistic fair value in return for these hot streaks.

Let’s get started with some players that have been heating up in Week 14.

NBA Heat Check

Bogdan Bogdanovic, SG/SF, Sacramento Kings

25-year old rookie Bogdan Bogdanovic has been steadily gaining steam through the season, and he might have finally reached his tipping point. On Wednesday night, he went for a career high 25 points on 9 of 11 from the field with 6 threes, 6 rebounds, 2 assists, and a steal. His minutes have been increasing from the beginning of the year, and he was recently inserted into the starting lineup as the Kings attempt to give their young players more opportunities to develop. Over the past ten games, he’s been averaging 15.2 points on 54.5% from the field with 2.2 threes, 3.5 rebounds, 4.2 assists, and 0.9 steals. That’s efficient enough to give him the highest true shooting percentage for the Kings at 60.1%.

The exciting part is that he’s still in the midst of a major uptrend and isn’t even close to his ceiling yet. His usage rate is a measly 18.9% which puts him at seventh on the Kings. But Zach Randolph leads the team with a huge usage rate of 27.7%, and his touches will be distributed among the new young core. It’s only logical to assume Bogdanovic will get his fair share of those looks. He has the potential to put up numbers similar to Nic Batum’s, except with better percentages. Whether that’ll happen this season or not remains to be seen, but he’s a sure add in all leagues. If you’re looking to capitalize on his potential in a trade, Dennis Schroder is a player of similar value.

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SF, Charlotte Hornets

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist led the Hornets on Wednesday night with 21 points, just a point shy of his season high. He was a blistering 8 for 11 from the field and contributed 4 rebounds, 2 assists, and 3 steals. He’s been inconsistent this season which makes it difficult to roster or even stream him, but over the past 9 games he’s averaged 11.5 points on 51.2% shooting and 4.2 rebounds. Even though those aren’t eye-popping numbers, he could prove to be useful as a streamer if he’s able to continue putting up consistent stat lines. His numbers over that span are relatively in line with his career averages, except for his rebounding totals which have dipped this season. But that means that there’s room for improvement if he’s able to trend upwards back towards his career average of 6.2 boards per game.

He’s an important part of the Hornets’ rotation, averaging 26.5 minutes per game and appearing in their top two most played lineups. But he’s a fringe option in their offense with a usage rate of 17.1%, only good for eighth on the team. He earns his time as an athletic wing that’s great on defense, but unfortunately his performance there doesn’t seem to translate into steals or blocks. He averaged 1 steal and 1 block last year so he has proven he can do it, but it’s a completely different story this season. He’s only averaging 0.8 steals and 0.6 blocks. Most of his value will come from his decent field goal percentage and low turnovers but if you need stats in other categories, Marcus Morris is trending upwards.

Dennis Smith Jr., PG, Dallas Mavericks

The much-hyped rookie looks like he’s starting to put everything together. Dennis Smith Jr. came out guns blazing on Tuesday night and scored 25 points, his second highest total of the season. He shot a shocking 61.1% from the field with 2 rebounds, 5 assists, and 1 steal. He’s been showing flashes of his untapped potential all season but is finally producing great numbers, and also doing it with acceptable percentages. His 40.3% field goal percentage on 14.0 attempts per game this season has been very hard to swallow, but over the last 8 games he’s shot 44.5% from the field resulting in a very respectable 18.1 points per game. His assist numbers have also been very strong in that same span at 5.9 per game, compared to his season average of 4.5 assists per game. Owners usually expect their point guards to contribute decent assists, and Smith is finally showing he can do that.

There’s no question that the Mavericks view him as the future of the franchise. They’re running the team through him. He claims the highest usage rate at 28.8%, averages the second highest field goal attempts per game behind Harrison Barnes, and is featured in four of the Mavericks’ top five most played lineups. Despite these facts, he’s only averaging the fourth most minutes played on the team with 28.3 per game. It’s hard to believe but it’s actually possible that his minutes increase and he produces more as a result. If you want to sell him high while he’s on a hot streak, a similar player would be Malcolm Brogdon.

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