April 3, 2017

Craig Rondinone analyzes the fantasy impact of free agent running back (RB) Eddie Lacy signing with the Seattle Seahawks for the 2017 football season.

The Seattle Seahawks may not have Marshawn Lynch any more, but they will have someone in their backfield who runs almost as hard in 2017.

Eddie Lacy signed a one-year contract with Seattle last week. My Green Bay Packers-loving cheesehead wife is mourning the loss of Lacy, and she is probably not alone. Fantasy owners in dynasty or keeper leagues are probably mourning that Lacy has left the red-zone riches that Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense supplied him over the last four years.

Now that Green Bay and Lacy have parted ways and Lacy has landed where coffee, rain and grunge rock are just as revered as the Seahawks, what does this mean for his fantasy value and the fantasy values of his new and old teammates?  Here is a look:

Eddie Lacy’s Impact in Seattle

Lacy started his NFL career with back-to-back 1,100-yard years and two dozen total touchdowns. He even added 784 receiving yards over those two seasons, showing he was not just a one-dimensional, between-the-tackles, big-bodied back who would never be on the field during third downs. He was the top tailback in one of the highest-scoring offenses in the NFL and was a fantasy force.

Unfortunately, weight and injury issues have plagued Lacy’s last two seasons. He weight went up while his rushing numbers dropped down in 2015 as Lacy finished with a disappointing 758 yards. Then after an offseason of attempting to slim down thanks to the popular P90X fitness system, Lacy’s 2016 campaign was cut short thanks to season-ending ankle surgery.

The bad news for Lacy is that he is slated to be part of a three-headed rushing attack monster with holdovers Thomas Rawls and C.J. Prosise. Lacy will be lucky to touch the ball 10 times per game when the entire trio is healthy and rotating in and out of the backfield.

The good news for Lacy is that Rawls and Prosise might be bigger question marks than he is due to their own injury problems. Neither was able to stay healthy for more than a few quarters at a time last season, which is one of the reasons Seattle felt it necessary to bring Lacy in. The other likely reason was with Rawls and Prosise being smaller backs that Lacy’s Jerome Bettis-like build would complement them perfectly when Seattle wanted to change things up offensively during the course of a contest.

Lacy ran well last season during the five games he was able to suit up. While he failed to score a touchdown, he did average 5.1 yards per carry and 72 rushing yards per game. When he is injury-free and free of extra pounds around his midsection, Lacy is an above-average running back who can rack up 1,200 yards and 10 touchdowns if everything breaks right for him.

Seattle does not have the explosive offense Green Bay had during Lacy’s four years there. Russell Wilson is good, but he is no Aaron Rodgers. Doug Baldwin is a tenacious player and has become one of the better receivers in the league, but he is no Jordy Nelson. So the scoring opportunities might not be as readily available for Lacy in Seattle as decaf coffee is.

Yet, Lacy will probably get the first crack at red-zone touches ahead of Rawls and Prosise because of his size and the nose for the end zone he showed during the early part of his career. He is still a risky pick since there is no guarantee he will stay healthy, avoid "China food," or beat out Rawls for the starting spot. But Lacy is a nice middle-to-late round sleeper pick to make note of. I would pencil him in for 900 rushing yards and seven scores, but those numbers could swing big in either direction since so much could go right or wrong for him in 2017.

How Will This Affect Other Players?

Thomas Rawls runs like he is Lacy’s size and with the reckless abandon of a high-flying WWE wrestler. But his body breaks down because of it. Maybe splitting time and touches with Lacy is actually the best thing for him and his fantasy worth.

Seattle had the 25^th-ranked ground game in the NFL last season, and while the Seahawks’ porous offensive line is mostly to blame, Rawls’ 3.2 yards per carry cannot be totally attributed to bad blocking. Rawls will be a good handcuff to fantasy owners that draft Lacy since Rawls could end up being the top tailback, and if he stays healthy and Seattle’s line improves, Rawls will provide decent fantasy value --- more so if Lacy loses carries due to his weight or another injury.

Ty Montgomery is the de facto top tailback in Green Bay now that Lacy and James Starks are not part of the Packers’ plans for 2017. Montgomery showed fantastic flexibility shifting from wide receiver to running back during the 2016 campaign when injuries ravaged Green Bay’s backfield. Now he is slated to stay at RB full-time in 2017, which should be a boon to his burgeoning fantasy value. It's unclear whether he will retain the rare RB/WR eligibility he gained last year, but he should be a valuable fantasy asset regardless.

Green Bay has yet to acquire a quality running back via free agency or trade, so while the offseason is still young and the draft has not happened yet, it appears Montgomery is the Packers’ best back until further notice. Montgomery can supply big plays and obviously PPR power thanks to his receiving prowess. Green Bay will need to add an inside runner since Montgomery is built to run on the outside (and gets nicked a lot). Montgomery will be a bigger fantasy force as a RB than he ever was as a WR, though.

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