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What is the ideal fantasy football strategy for Superflex leagues? Kyle Lindemann breaks down a few QB targets and sleepers and how to approach your 2024 draft.
Jumping into a Superflex fantasy football draft? Brace yourself; it's a whole different ballgame. In Superflex, quarterbacks get snatched up faster than free nachos at a tailgate, with anywhere from six to eight QBs often disappearing in the first round. This creates a mad scramble and skyrockets their value due to the simple laws of supply and demand. Your game plan will need to adapt based on your draft position, the lineup size, scoring settings, and the draft trends of your fellow managers. Navigating the Superflex ADP landscape is crucial, but properly timing the QB gold rush while securing value elsewhere is the key to dominating the draft.
In the realm of Superflex, Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts are the MVPs off of the board to start most drafts. Post their selection, the strategic conundrum kicks in: do you grab a gridiron gladiator like CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, or Ja'Marr Chase? Or do you opt for a fantasy goldmine like Christian McCaffrey, considering the rarity of workhorse-type backs in the NFL today?
Here's a little playbook wisdom from the trenches: starting a draft with a pair of elite QBs sounds like a winning strategy, but it backfired on me once. In that draft, only four quarterbacks went in the first two rounds, and by my third pick, all the top-tier skill players were long gone. I was left with a powerhouse QB room but scrambling for scraps at running back and wide receiver. The trick in Superflex? It's a balancing act between weighing the need for top QBs against securing those crucial skill position players, all while keeping a keen eye on your league's draft flow. Let’s dive into how to ace your Superflex strategy and be best prepared for the draft.
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Superflex Fantasy Football Draft Strategy
The leisurely days of snagging a QB in the late rounds of a quarterback fantasy league? Those are history. One of the aspects of Superflex that make it such a fun format is that no two drafts are ever the same. Regular fantasy leagues with 1QB are great in their own right, but after a while, they can get rather chalky. In Superflex drafts, expect the unexpected!
These days, the gridiron is ruled by dual-threat quarterbacks who amass points not just by air but with their prowess on the ground. Flashback a decade, and the fantasy point gap between the QB6 and QB15 was a slim two points. Today? The surge of quarterbacks dashing over 700+ yards a season has stretched that gap wide open, turning these so-called "Konami QBs" into fantasy gold.
The rise of the Superflex format has turned up the heat on the QB draft craze, sending their stock soaring. Within leagues where six points light up for a passing touchdown or where completion bonuses stack up, clinching a top-tier QB is critical.
The scale of your league’s starting lineup also weighs in, as fewer slots mean QBs carve out a larger chunk of your fantasy score, boosting their value. On the flip side, a beefier lineup gives you a tad more leeway to juggle your squad and potentially wait on your second quarterback a little bit.
If you're new to Superflex, here’s a pro tip: secure two quarterbacks within your first four picks to dodge being left in the lurch. Fading quarterbacks in a Superflex draft always sounds easy in theory, but there's nothing worse than getting caught with your pants down in a QB-hungry draft lobby only to be severely underpowered at your quarterback spots every week.
The quarterback ADP from Superflex below is from DraftSharks and may not be an actual representation of how your draft may go, but we can use it as a compass to spot some potential undervalued targets and sleepers at quarterback.
Fantasy Football Quarterback Targets in Superflex Formats
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
QB9, 20.5 ADP
Murray finally got back on the field in Week 10 after rehabbing from an ACL tear, and in the seven games he played, he didn’t disappoint, averaging a solid 18.9 fantasy points per game. The Cardinals gave him some shiny new toys in the 2024 NFL Draft, grabbing wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. with the No. 4 pick and running back Trey Benson early in the third round at No. 66.
These new additions join a squad that already has up-and-coming tight end Trey McBride and the reliable James Conner in the backfield. Plus, they brought in veteran Jonah Williams to lock down that right tackle spot.
Considering how bleak the Arizona offense looked in 2023, it's fair to be a lot more optimistic about Kyler's fantasy value this season. One of the best things about Murray is his rushing ability, which has consistently given him a solid fantasy floor, around five points per game just from his legs.
Now, with Harrison as a true WR1 alongside second-year wideout Michael Wilson and slot guy Greg Dortch, the Cardinals' offense looks way more promising than it did at this time one year ago.
Things that work:
- Kyler Murray’s legs (and arm)
- Michael Wilson’s hands#AZCardinals pic.twitter.com/q8rE2MfMEd— Tyler Drake (@Tdrake4sports) July 25, 2024
Looking at the big picture, the Cardinals should find themselves in favorable game scripts this season. Their defense was pretty rough in 2023, finishing second worst in points allowed (455 total) and giving up 5.7 yards per play, ranking fourth worst.
While they made some defensive upgrades in the offseason, it's not like they’re suddenly going to be a top-tier unit, so Kyler and the offense should be slinging it a lot.
Right now, Murray might be the best QB value in all of fantasy football. He’s got a ceiling that rivals the top-tier guys, a reliable weekly floor thanks to his rushing, and you won’t have to spend a top pick to get him. That’s a win-win.
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
QB12, 36.1 ADP
It’s crazy to see Herbert ranked so low this year. Losing Keenan Allen and Mike Williams wasn't ideal, but let’s not pretend Herbert suddenly forgot how to play quarterback.
This guy has been a fantasy beast since day one, and we shouldn’t be buying into the hype that the Chargers are going all run-heavy under new head coach Jim Harbaugh. Yeah, Harbaugh loves to pound the rock, but Herbert’s arm talent is too good to ignore, and game scripts might force them to air it out more often than not.
Let’s be real: the Chargers’ defense isn’t exactly shutting teams down, so they’re going to be in plenty of shootouts. Herbert’s going to have to sling it to keep up, and he’s still got some weapons.
The Chargers brought in some fresh faces, and Herbert’s connection with his new guys could catch everyone off guard. Plus, he’s got rookie Ladd McConkey, along with Josh Palmer, Quentin Johnston, and D.J. Chark. Is it perfect? No, but Herbert’s still going to rack up yards and touchdowns, even without Allen and Williams.
New from me: Chargers QB Justin Herbert was spotted at practice with no walking boot on the first day he was eligible to remove it-a sign in the right direction for his plantar fascia injury recovery.https://t.co/eQoqLO8156
— Alex Insdorf (@alexinsdorf99) August 15, 2024
It feels like Herbert is being slept on due to all the changes around him, but let’s not forget this is still the same guy who can drop 300 yards and multiple touchdowns on any given Sunday. If you’re hunting for a quarterback with a solid floor and sky-high ceiling, Herbert’s your guy. Don’t let him slide too far in your draft--grab him, and you might just be the one laughing in the end.
Additional Tips to Get the Most Value out of Your Superflex Draft
Having a solid option in your Superflex slot is important to the success of your lineup due to the reality that the average QB will score more points every week than a typical RB2 or WR2 will, and your draft strategy should shift based on the number of teams in your league.
In a 10-team league, each team has the possibility of ending up with three starting quarterbacks. But in a 12-team league, at least four teams will be without a third starting quarterback.
Why does this matter? By the time bye weeks and injuries roll around, you'll want to have a semi-reliable third option on your roster. The general idea is that the bigger the Superflex league, the more emphasis you should place on drafting a quarterback or two early.
Normally, a lot of fantasy experts suggest waiting until the later rounds to snag a quarterback or even streaming the position altogether. But that advice is for 1QB leagues. If you try that in a Superflex league, you could see your hopes and dreams get blown up in a hurry!
Fantasy Football Quarterback Sleepers in Superflex Formats
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
QB16, 49.4 ADP
Lawrence hasn’t quite hit that “generational prospect” status that everyone was raving about since his freshman year at Clemson, which led to him being the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. But even though he hasn’t fully lived up to the hype just yet, there’s plenty of reason to be excited about Lawrence heading into 2024.
The Jags made some moves this offseason, snagging wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. with the No. 23 pick in the draft and bringing in Gabe Davis, giving Lawrence two vertical threats he hasn’t had in his three years as Jacksonville’s QB.
Throw in the dynamic Travis Etienne, reliable wideout Christian Kirk, and the ever-steady Evan Engram at tight end, and suddenly, Lawrence has a pretty stacked arsenal to work!
Trevor Lawrence deep pass to Brian Thomas Jr pic.twitter.com/ptJLkWH5Er
— Jamal St. Cyr (@JStCyrTV) August 15, 2024
From Week 11 onwards last year, Lawrence flipped the switch, lighting up fantasy boards as the QB7, averaging 270.9 yards and 1.7 touchdowns per game. He did this even with Kirk, his main man, who was out for the last five games due to injury.
Lawrence isn’t just about that rocket arm; the dude can move, too. If he can find that consistency, Year 4 might just be the breakout we’ve all been waiting for. It’s fair to still believe Lawrence can become one of the NFL’s top QBs, and at his current ADP, there’s some serious value there.
Will Levis, Tennessee Titans
QB23, 100.3 ADP
It’s fair to have some doubts about Levis heading into 2024. He had a mixed bag of reviews as a prospect and has a habit of being a bit reckless with the ball, always gunning for the big play—just look at his 11.1 aDOT in 2023, one of the highest in the league. But despite those concerns, the Titans have made some big moves this offseason to set their young QB up for success.
Tennessee went all out, signing veteran wideout Calvin Ridley to a huge deal, bringing in Tony Pollard at running back, and adding Tyler Boyd, who should lock down the slot.
They also beefed up the offensive line, signing center Lloyd Cushenberry III and spending the No. 7 overall pick on Alabama left tackle JC Latham. Throw in DeAndre Hopkins and promising back Tyjae Spears, and you can start to see a path where Levis might just surprise us this season.
The Titans also brought in Brian Callahan, the former Bengals offensive coordinator, as their new head coach. Callahan has a history of running pass-heavy offenses, going back to his days with Andy Dalton. If he can help Levis clean up his reads, improve his accuracy, and take what the defense gives him, there’s potential for a breakout.
Levis might not be a top target in 1QB leagues, and he’s not going to wow anyone with his rushing stats (just 57 yards in eight games last season), but in Superflex formats, he’s worth a late-round dart throw at his current draft spot.
Conclusion
The most important piece of advice, more valuable than any draft strategy you can follow, is to know your league inside and out. Understanding your league’s settings and getting a feel for the other managers you’re drafting can give you a huge edge.
If this is your first Superflex draft, don't panic. Just know that every draft and every league is different, with some leagues gobbling up quarterbacks faster than others.
If you’re in more than one Superflex league or plan to be, mix things up with different approaches. Run some mock drafts to get a sense of average draft positions, especially for quarterbacks. But keep in mind that every league is different, and each manager might value QBs in their own way, so be ready to pivot on the fly. That's what makes the Superflex format so unpredictable and so much fun!
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