Fantasy Baseball Breakout Hitters Watch and Underachievers, Overachievers (Week 21)

August 10, 2024

Jarod's fantasy baseball breakout hitters watch list, underachievers, and overachievers for Week 21 (2024), including hit streak leaders, ISO leaders, and more.

Welcome back to my Week 21 edition of the Fantasy Baseball Breakout Hitters series for the 2024 MLB season! In today's edition, we'll take a look at players like Vinnie Pasquantino, Eloy Jimenez, and Josh Bell.

We'll take our usual look around the league as we head into the weekend to see who is showing signs of meaningful trends that can be revealed in some form or another. Perhaps a hitter is about to break out or on the verge of a cold spell. Checking in on who's hot (or not) can highlight some notable names. Those names then become potential waiver-wire targets or sneaky DFS plays (or avoids) until the rest of the fantasy community catches on. Matt Wallner, Santiago Espinal, and Corey Seager were a few good call-outs from last week who have continued to hit very well.

Below, we'll check in on players with the longest hit streaks, highest batting average, and highest ISO over the last seven days, as well as some regression candidates and more. Note that totals are designated by the number in parentheses next to the player's name.

Hit Streak Leaders

Data through 8/7

We'll talk about a couple of big bats here, but if you're looking for some help from a hot bat that might be on the waiver wire, Rhys Hoskins, Andrew McCutchen, and Dominic Smith are all viable targets. I noted this past Sunday that Smith, in particular, is hitting for extra bases, so he could be a sneaky DFS play too.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (19)

If not for a poor first month of the season, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. may be vying for the A.L. batting average lead alongside Bobby Witt Jr. The 25-year-old hit .229 over that first month, however, since May 1, the slugger has slashed .350/.416/.606, and now he's in the midst of a 19-game hit streak. During this current hit streak, he's gone 34-for-69 (.493) with nine home runs, and he's walked more than he's struck out (11:7). If the rest of the Jays lineup could get on base, he'd have more RBIs, and if they were winning more, you could be looking a potential MVP candidate.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. extends his hit streak to 19 straight games! 🔥 pic.twitter.com/Amz9mDwCgZ

— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) August 7, 2024

(Update: Guerrero went 3-for-4 and fell a single shy of the cycle on Thursday)

Vinnie Pasquantino (11)

Vinnie Pasquantino's 11-game hit streak may not seem like much in terms of games, we've seen several other hit streaks this season that have gone longer, but when you look back further, it's nearly an 18-gamer since he has hit safely in 17 of his last 18 games. Over the 18-game stretch, he's gone 29-for-75 (.387) and has six home runs over the last eight games.

Red Sox brought in their only lefty reliever to face Vinnie Pasquantino and he mashed this sinker for a two-run homer. His 17th of the year. Hit streak up to 11 games for Pasquantino, matching a career-high. #Royals have a 7-4 lead. pic.twitter.com/eABD9JDwjH

— Anne Rogers (@anne__rogers) August 8, 2024

Highest Batting Average Last Seven Days

Minimum 13 AB, games through 8/7

While Michael Stefanic is an interesting name that tops this list, he does have just eight total bases, so I'll spare you the commentary. We'll skip down the list some more and talk about some players that warrant some attention (I don't need to tell you Aaron Judge is good or hot or playable in season-long/DFS)

Eloy Jimenez (.500)

Eloy Jimenez was one of the lucky ones who escaped Chicago at the trade deadline. Not only that, he landed on a true contender in the Orioles. In the four games he has started for the O's, the 27-year-old has gone 8-for-15 (.533) with two doubles and four RBI. If he can stay healthy for the remainder of the season, he can be a valuable fantasy asset hitting in a potent Orioles offense. He's had a lengthy injury history and has already spent time on the IL at two different points this season, so that is a big IF. For those hoping he can stay upright, Jimenez is available in over 70% of Yahoo leagues.

Big Baby delivers. pic.twitter.com/iKWVRo1Cpf

— Baltimore Orioles (@Orioles) August 8, 2024

(Update: Jimenez went 0-for-1 on Thursday as a pinch-hitter)

Luis Garcia Jr. (.476)

Luis Garcia Jr. has been stuffing the stat sheet over the last week, going 10-for-21 (.476) over his last six games, with a double, two home runs, two RBI, six runs, and three stolen bases. The 24-year-old is having a solid season for the Nationals, putting together a .288-13-53-41-18 line with a .333 wOBA and 115 wRC+. The second baseman is available in almost 40% of Yahoo leagues but is certainly worth a roster spot at this point.

(Update: Garcia went 2-for-4 with a home run, three RBI, and a stolen base on Thursday)

Highest ISO Last Seven Days

Minimum 13 AB, games through 8/7

When it comes to fantasy, especially DFS, we want to see power. More big hits mean more points. Big hits usually drive in more runs, which means more points. Doubles and triples put hitters in a better position to score, which means? You guessed it -- more points! So, who's hitting for extra bases over the past week?

Kyle Schwarber went nuclear on Wednesday with three home runs and a double in one game, catapulting him to the top. Corey Seager is a big name who hadn't been hitting for as much power as he should have been, so he was outlined in last week's Breakout Watch as an underachiever due for some extra-base hits. Some other names here are who we'll discuss in detail, however.

Matt Chapman (.560)

Matt Chapman has been hitting the ball well over the last week, but it has been going on for longer than that. Since July 27, the 31-year-old had five multi-hit games, going 17-for-43 (.395) over that time, including five doubles, five home runs, 11 RBI, and 11 runs scored. Now the author of a .248-19-56-80-12 line, Chapman is contributing across categories and is ranked comfortably within the Top 10 at the third base position for fantasy.

(Update: Chapman went 1-for-5 with a walk and an RBI on Thursday)

Josh Bell (.538)

Like the aforementioned Jimenez, Josh Bell left a basement-dweller in Miami for a contender in Arizona at the deadline. Also like Jimenez, Bell has been hitting well for his new team, however, the switch-hitter caught fire long before he was traded. Since July 23, the 31-year-old has recorded eight multi-hit games over a 12-game stretch, going 18-for-51 (.353) with a double, a triple, and eight home runs. Now hitting cleanup in a more formidable D-backs lineup, Bell should be rostered in more than 49% of Yahoo leagues.

ANOTHER TWO-HOMER GAME FOR JOSH BELL. 🔔 pic.twitter.com/hn1eVzEl0D

— Arizona Diamondbacks (@Dbacks) August 7, 2024

(Update: Bell went 0-for-3 with a walk on Thursday)

Most Steals Last Seven Days

Data as of 8/7

Jose Ramirez (5)

You may have heard that Jose Ramirez has been knocking the cover off of the ball lately, smacking six home runs in his last nine games, but he's been off to the races, too, swiping five bags in his last four games. With 25 steals on the season, the 31-year-old should surpass his total of 28 from last season and should come close to matching his career high of 34 back in 2018.

Honorable mention: Jackson Chourio (3) - not only has he been hot at the plate, he's been stealing bases, too!

(Update: Chourio did not have a stolen base Thursday but did go 3-for-5 with two home runs and four RBI)

xSLG Underachiever

Data through 8/7, minimum 250 AB

Below are hitters who have some of the biggest differences between their current slugging percentage and their expected slugging percentage, or xSLG. While many times this is a good exercise to see who is on the verge of turning things around, it's not certain. Sometimes hitters over or underperform their xSLG throughout their career, so regression to the xSLG may not happen.

Andrew Vaughn (.392 vs. .469)

It has been a season to forget in many ways for Andrew Vaughn and the White Sox, but if there is a sign of hope that perhaps Vaughn can finish strong, it could be that he's got one of the largest differences between his actual slugging percentage and his expected slugging percentage.

He might already be turning things around as well, having put together a tidy little four-game hit streak in which he's gone 6-for-16 (.375), with four of the six hits going for doubles. That's a category in which he's done well, totaling 24 on the year, which is as many as the likes of Juan Soto, Bryce Harper, and Teoscar Hernandez, but he's fallen short in the home run category. The former third-overall draft pick is available in over 70% of leagues for those who believe he can finish strong. I for one think he can, however, the counting stats may not see a boost due to the pitiful White Sox lineup.

Honorable mention: Taylor Ward (.395 vs. .466)

xSLG Overachiever

Data through 8/7, minimum 250 AB

We'll touch on a hitter below who might eventually cool off. In this case, the SLG is much higher than the xSLG, and some regression should be expected. Note that the players who've shown up on this list so far this season have continued to hit well for a while, so don't expect them to go cold right away. Rather, it's usually more of a gradual decline.

Masyn Winn (.419 vs. .357)

Masyn Winn is having a rookie-of-the-year caliber season (acknowledging Paul Skenes is the heavy favorite), making good contact, striking out well below league-average, and posting a .282-9-41-53-10 line with a .324 wOBA and 111 wRC+. The 22-year-old has 89th-percentile sprint speed, which has helped him to four triples. The 20 doubles he's collected are probably in line with expectations as well, but it's the nine home runs that are somewhat surprising with a 2.7% barrel rate. He did belt 18 home runs at Triple-A in 2023 so he's got some pop, so I believe there isn't going to be much regression here.

Masyn Winn leads off with a double and Willson Contreras drives him in for the early lead!#ForTheLou pic.twitter.com/H0EEV5Eo6V

— St. Louis Cardinals (@Cardinals) August 8, 2024

(Update: Winn went 1-for-4 with a double on Thursday)

Also: Jeimer Candelario (.434 vs. .381)

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