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Jamie Steed previews EPL Matchday 6 of the 2025-26 season, starting on 9/27/2025. He picks out the best plays and looks at how to target the fixtures for fantasy purposes.
Last weekend was another one filled with action and excitement. On Saturday at least. Heavy rain impacted proceedings, but 18 of the 20 teams scored on Matchday 5. With domestic and European cup competitions underway, there's no shortage of action impacting EPL games.
Here, we'll be looking at the best betting plays for Matchday 6 and where you can gain an edge in your fantasy lineups. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Also, never bet what you can't afford to lose.
There are FPL, UCL, and DFS articles every week on RotoBaller.com, along with our weekly betting picks and game previews articles. All of which can be found here. Follow the team on X (@F1FantasyEuan, @TheFPLManual, @df_solutions, @thefplbois, and yours truly, @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions.
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Betting Picks
Brentford (+240) vs. Manchester United (+107) - 7:30 a.m. - Saturday, September 27
Brentford has scored in all five of their EPL games so far. That's only yielded four points, as they've also conceded 10 goals. Manchester United has failed to keep a clean sheet so far. Despite scoring only four goals, United has the highest xG (expected goals) in the EPL.
* graphic courtesy of whoscored.com
Both teams have scored in the last four meetings between the two. Since Brentford's promotion to the Premier League, they've played each other eight times. On six occasions, there's been at least three goals in those fixtures. That is what we'll be playing here.
We'll also sprinkle in some Bryan Mbeumo bets. We have the narrative of a player scoring against his former team. And despite United's struggles to score, Mbeumo has been their leading attacking threat. No United player has had more shots (16) or shots on target (six) than Mbeumo in the league.
Mbeumo has had at least three shots and one on target in four of United's five league games. The only time he failed to reach those marks was against Fulham, when he didn't register a single shot. That was only the second time in 2025 that Mbeumo failed to have a shot in a league game.
Betting Pick: Both teams to score and over 2.5 total goals (-139) 1.5 units
Betting Pick: Bryan Mbeumo to have over 2.5 shots and over 0.5 shots on target (-139) 1.5 units
Betting Pick: Bryan Mbeumo to score (+190) 0.5 units
Chelsea (-132) vs. Brighton (+330) - 10:00 a.m. ET - Saturday, September 27
Chelsea isn't a team that's easy to predict. Having their goalkeeper sent off inside the first five minutes all but ruined their chances against Manchester United last weekend. Cole Palmer limping off after 20 minutes compounded what was a miserable week for the Blues.
Brighton only has five points so far, but scored twice against Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur in their last three games. Brighton's 3-0 win against Chelsea back in February ended a run of seven consecutive league games between the two in which both teams scored.
We'll be backing a goal for both sides, along with four or more cards to be shown. That's happened in four of each team's five games, with Brighton having the second-most yellow cards shown to them (13). Chelsea is tied-fifth (12). Brighton's opponents have been shown 15 yellow cards, the most in the EPL.
If we factor in that Simon Hooper is the referee, cards should be plentiful. His 5.5 yellow cards per game (courtesy of whoscored.com) is the most in the league. Hooper's 112 yellow cards shown last season were the second most, with an average of 4.67 per game.
Betting Pick: Both teams to score and over 3.5 total cards (-110) 1.5 units
Leeds United (+200) vs. Bournemouth (+140) - 10:00 a.m. ET - Saturday, September 27
Leeds United has kept clean sheets in both of their home games this season, but has yet to score from open play at Elland Road. Bournemouth's five games have seen a total of 11 goals, but six of them came in their opening game. Three of their last four EPL games have had fewer than two goals in them.
We'll be playing the under 2.5 total goals market in this one. We'll also add Leeds United to have at least five corners. In their three away games, Leeds have only totaled five corners. But they've had five and seven in their two home fixtures. Leeds averaged 7.1 corners per game in the Championship last season.
Betting Pick: Leeds United over 4.5 corners (-120) 1 unit
Betting Pick: Under 2.5 total goals (-113) 1 unit
Betting Pick: Single game parlay - Leeds United over 4.5 corners and under 2.5 total goals (+215) 0.5 units
Parlay 1: Brentford vs. Manchester United and Chelsea vs. Brighton, both teams to score (+146) 1 unit
Parlay 2: Bryan Mbeumo over 0.5 shots on target, Chelsea vs. Brighton over 3.5 total cards, and Leeds over 4.5 corners (+240) 0.5 units
Fantasy Premier League Game Previews
Every matchday, we will look at games to target and avoid in fantasy for attack and defense based on what the oddsmakers are pricing. We'll also be giving out some individual players worth consideration based on how games are expected to play out.
Attack
The two Manchester clubs have the most appeal in attack this weekend. Manchester City won't play like they did on Sunday at Arsenal. They'll dominate possession and will be on the front foot against Burnley. Burnley's 11.18 xGA (expected goals against) is the most in the league.
32.8% - Manchester City's draw at the Emirates included the lowest ever possession average by a Pep Guardiola team in a top-flight league match (today his 601st), while the two lowest have both been at Arsenal in the Premier League (32.8% today, 36.5% in March 2023). Pragmatism. pic.twitter.com/MgBd9Gtehj
— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) September 21, 2025
With odds of -143 to score over 2.5 goals, City's implied probability of scoring at least three times is 58.8%. That's the most among any team this weekend. Burnley conceded three times at Tottenham and Manchester United, so City is as close to a lock for scoring a few goals as we will get this season.
As we've already mentioned, United has the highest xG in the league. Their games against Brentford have generally seen plenty of goals. Last season, only two teams conceded more goals than Brentford at home (35). At some point, the xG will turn into actual goals, and this seems like the week for it.
The game I am avoiding in an attacking sense is Liverpool's trip to Crystal Palace. Matches between these two have tended to be low-scoring. There's only been a total of nine goals in their last six EPL contests. With question marks over Liverpool's attacking options this weekend, I'm avoiding this fixture.
Defense
Manchester City is the likeliest team to keep a clean sheet this weekend. Burnley are odds on to blank (-137). With an implied probability of 57.8% to keep a clean sheet, City looks like the best bet to do so. Sprinkling in some of their defenders in your lineups seems optimal.
Wolves have the third-shortest odds to fail to score this weekend (+125). They travel to Tottenham, looking for a first away league goal of the season. Tottenham kept a clean sheet in their opening home game of the season, and opponents have blanked against them two more times since then.
❌ What a difference a few months make - Tottenham Hotspur have already notched up half of the clean sheets they did in the entire 2024/25 Premier League season in just 4 games. pic.twitter.com/hO2dDhy5o4
— Football Insider (@footyinsider247) September 14, 2025
While many will be looking to stack Tottenham forwards in their lineups, their defense should be the main focus. Wolves' two away games both ended in 1-0 defeats. It's their defense at home that has been dreadful, conceding 10 goals in three matches. I'd rather back Tottenahm to keep a clean sheet than score three.
Players to Target
Erling Haaland will be the number one option for the large majority of FPL and DFS players. The concern is whether or not he actually starts the game. Haaland went off last weekend with an injury, and there's some doubt surrounding his availability this weekend.
Erling Haaland could be a doubt for Gameweek 6 👀 pic.twitter.com/B15OwjllF0
— Fantasy Premier League (@OfficialFPL) September 23, 2025
Ordinarily, I'd suggest he will be fine. But given how heavily favored City are, and they have a Champions League tie away at Monaco on Wednesday, Haaland might not be risked. In DFS, Haaland is still the best option and can be swapped out if he doesn't start.
In FPL, many are using their triple-captain chip on Haaland this weekend. While that makes sense, even if he does start, there's a real scenario in which Haaland scores one and goes off at half-time as a precaution with City leading 3-0. It's a big gamble to go all in on Haaland this weekend.
My favorite low-rostered option this week is Everton's James Garner. Along with Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, Garner is Everton's main set-piece taker. Seven of the 13 goals West Ham has conceded this season have been from set-pieces. The Everton duo makes a nice differential pairing in FPL this week.
Matchday 5 Review
Below is a quick recap of how our picks last matchday turned out. We'll be tracking all our picks throughout the season. Good luck with those FPL and DFS teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!
We had a very productive Matchday 5. We correctly predicted Liverpool wouldn't keep a clean sheet and that Leeds United would provide some attacking returns. Unfortunately, a red card for Sunderland dented their hopes of keeping a clean sheet.
On the player front, Anton Stach scored and got an assist, despite being one of the lowest rostered players in DFS and FPL. Crystal Palace scored from a set-piece. While Daichi Kamada and Yeremy Pino both came close to getting an assist (and scoring), they failed to provide a return.
Someone who did provide a return and started our big weekend was Jean-Philippe Mateta. His goal helped Palace win and bag us a tidy profit. The late game on Saturday saw Fulham beat Brentford with both teams scoring. Something we played and made another tidy profit.
This week, we had Mateta as our lock to score and Stach as the differential for your #DFS and #FPL lineups.
Both have scored in the first half, and Stach also has an assist. The @RotoBaller soccer team is cooking to start the weekendhttps://t.co/hy86wvI5PK
— Jamie Steed (@Baseball_Jimbo) September 20, 2025
Unfortunately, Cole Palmer's injury meant he only lasted 20 minutes and prevented us from going 6-for-6 on Saturday. Sunday's games also provided a profit, with Sunderland fighting back with 10 men to avoid defeat. That netted us a nice parlay and put us into profit for the season.
Matchday 5: +5.64 units (8 units played)
Season: +1.5 units (36 units played)
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