RADIO
Jamie Steed previews EPL Matchday 1 of the 2025-26 season on 8/15/2025. He picks out the best plays and looks at how best to target the fixtures for fantasy purposes.
The Premier League is back! After what felt like an eternity, the EPL season gets underway on Friday, August 15, with Bournemouth visiting reigning champions Liverpool. And the RotoBaller team is back with FPL, DFS, betting picks, and game previews for the entire season.
We'll be looking at the best betting plays for Matchday 1 and where you can gain an edge in your fantasy lineups. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Also, never bet what you can't afford to lose.
There are FPL, UCL, and DFS articles every week on RotoBaller.com, along with our weekly betting picks and game previews articles. All of which can be found here. Follow the team on X (@F1FantasyEuan, @TheFPLManual, @df_solutions, and yours truly, @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions.
Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 50% off using code SMASH. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!
Join the RotoBaller FPL League
Fancy pitting your wits against fellow RotoBallers? Then join our free league to compete against the team and our dedicated FPL fans. Head to the official FPL site, click the leagues and cups tab, and enter the RotoBaller league code: 7xqqnf.
The best way to enjoy #FPL is to play with those closest to you 🫶
Personalise and share this with your friends and family to get them involved in your mini-league 📲 pic.twitter.com/z55KsOvkmQ
— Fantasy Premier League (@OfficialFPL) July 29, 2025
Betting Picks
Aston Villa (+125) vs. Newcastle United (+210) - 7:30 a.m. EDT. Saturday, August 16
It's been a tumultuous summer for both clubs. The biggest news from both teams this summer has been potential outgoings rather than any incomings. Newcastle's most significant issue is the ongoing transfer saga of top scorer Alexander Isak. He won't be playing in the season opener.
Aston Villa's top scorer will start on Saturday. And he's been in excellent form this preseason, scoring five times. Watkins also has an exceptional record against Newcastle. The Villa striker has scored in all four home EPL games against the Magpies, scoring five goals in total.
🦁 Ollie Watkins stats in preseason:
🏃♂️ 5 games
⚽️ 5 goals
🅰️ 1 assist
💰 £9.0mThe Aston Villa forward is in fine form! Has he done enough to make your team? 👀#FPL pic.twitter.com/JjbMKCZvaY
— Fantasy Premier League (@OfficialFPL) August 11, 2025
This game has been a high-scoring fixture in recent seasons. The last six meetings between these two have seen a total of 25 goals scored. If that trend continues, Watkins will more than likely find his name on the scoresheet. Watkins to score anytime is our pick to get things underway.
Betting Pick: Ollie Watkins to score anytime (+150) 1 unit
Brighton (-103) vs. Fulham (+275) - 10:00 a.m. EDT. Saturday, August 16
Brighton's joint top scorer last season, João Pedro, departed for Chelsea this summer. The Seagulls also sold impressive winger Simon Adingra to Premier League newcomers, Sunderland. They have replaced them with intriguing young players, but it may take time for them to adapt to the EPL.
Fulham's transfer activity has been almost non-existent, but they are looking to bring in new faces. They have got stability, which should help in the early going. And Fulham's recent record against Brighton is impressive. That should give them confidence to get their first points of the season on Saturday.
🚨 Fulham have submitted a club-record bid of £35M+ for Shakhtar Donetsk winger Kevin.
It's thought Shakhtar want £43M.
(Source: @tabuteauS) pic.twitter.com/7YyvU5f2Re
— Transfer News Live (@DeadlineDayLive) August 11, 2025
Fulham have only lost one of their last 10 EPL games against Brighton. That was the last fixture back in March, which Brighton only won courtesy of a 98th-minute penalty. Only five teams got more points away from home last season than Fulham, and we'll be backing them to take something from this game.
Betting Pick: Double Chance - Fulham or draw (-122) 2 units
Chelsea (-175) vs. Crystal Palace (+460) - 9:00 a.m. EDT. Sunday, August 17
Chelsea won the FIFA Club World Cup this summer, to go with their Europa Conference League triumph in May. Palace won their first-ever major trophy in May, winning the FA Cup. They then beat Liverpool in the Community Shield last weekend, so both teams have had a successful few months.
It's that success which could lead to an exciting game. Chelsea have once again invested heavily in their squad, focusing on attacking areas. However, they are set to be without some key defenders in their season opener, with Levi Colwill already ruled out for the majority of the campaign.
BREAKING: Chelsea handed injury scare as another defender is forced off injured - days after Levi Colwill blow https://t.co/71BdIwIbTa
— The Sun Football ⚽ (@TheSunFootball) August 10, 2025
Palace's captain, Marc Guéhi, continues to be linked to a move away from the club, with star player Eberechi Eze also being targeted by EPL teams. Despite that, Palace showed they can be a threat against any side, scoring twice against Liverpool in last weekend's Community Shield.
With both teams having attacking threats, I expect both teams to score. That's occurred in the last four meetings between these two sides. Palace scored in 16 of their 19 away EPL games last season, while Chelsea scored in all their home league games after blanking in the season opener.
Betting Pick: Both Teams to Score - Yes (-137) 2 units
Parlay all three picks (+687) 1 unit
Fantasy Premier League Game Previews
Every matchday, we will look at games to target and avoid in fantasy for attack and defense based on what the oddsmakers are pricing. We'll also be giving out some individual players worth consideration based on how games are expected to play out.
Attack
The only game with a total goal line set to over/under 3.5 is Liverpool vs. Bournemouth. Given Liverpool scored more goals than anyone else last season (86), it's no surprise. The reigning champions have also invested heavily in new forwards and attack-minded full-backs.
Bournemouth have lost key defenders, including Milos Kerkez, who departed for this week's opponents. The Cherries did score 35 goals away from home last year, which was the third most in the league. There's reason to believe the opening game of the season will produce plenty of goals.
The streets won't forget this Bournemouth defence, who have all moved on this summer 😮💨 pic.twitter.com/KwNzTKEoM1
— Premier League (@premierleague) August 12, 2025
With odds of -167 for over 2.5 total goals in Wolves' game with Manchester City, there's an implied probability of 62.55% that we see at least three goals. This game has the shortest odds for over 2.5 goals in it, and those odds do not appeal.
Manchester City have had a significant overhaul in their attack, and the new players may need time to gel as a cohesive unit. Meanwhile, Wolves improved their defense as last season progressed. Wolves only conceded nine goals in their final nine home games of the campaign.
No visiting team scored more than twice at Molineux in those nine games. City kept a clean sheet in five of their final six away EPL games last season. While I can see a repeat of last year's 1-2 scoreline, it's not a game I'd be heavily targeting for fantasy purposes.
Defense
With odds of -127 to score a goal, Burnley's the shortest-priced team to blank this weekend. They built their promotion campaign on a tight defense, and they might find it challenging to score enough goals to avoid relegation this season.
Tottenham had a disastrous league campaign last season. But new manager Thomas Frank won't have them set up so gung-ho. They should also have a healthy defense to start the season, something they struggled with last year. Tottenham's defense is one worth targeting in fantasy this week.
Brentford's odds of -245 to score a goal mean they have an implied probability of 71.01% to score at Nottingham Forest. However, the Bees sold last year's top scorer, Bryan Mbeumo, to Manchester United. And striker Yoanne Wissa isn't set to feature as he is being linked with a move to Newcastle United.
🚨⚠️ Yoane Wissa, out of Bretford squad tonight as he’s very clear; the plan is to leave and join Newcastle. pic.twitter.com/GEht5hErH1
— Fabrizio Romano (@FabrizioRomano) August 8, 2025
That duo combined to score 39 of Brentford's 66 league goals last season. Nottingham Forest conceded just 16 home goals last season. That was tied for the fewest in the league. The Forest defense looks like it is being overlooked for keeping a clean sheet, something they did eight times at home last season.
Players to Target
As well as Ollie Watkins, Morgan Rodgers is someone to target this week. He had a breakout season last campaign with 19 goal involvements. One of which came in this fixture. That was a game in which Rodgers had a season-high three shots on target.
Due to their involvement in the FIFA Club World Cup, Chelsea have only played two preseason friendlies. João Pedro scored in both of them. He also netted three times in his two starts at the Club World Cup. Cole Palmer has four goal involvements in three EPL games against Palace as a Chelsea player.
Pairing the two is also a favorable option this week. On the opposite side, Jean-Philippe Mateta scored 10 goals in the second half of last season. He found the net in the Community Shield and scored against Chelsea when he last faced them. Mateta should be considered as a lower-rostered striker.
Only Mo Salah (12) and Alexander Isak (11) have scored more Premier League goals in 2025 than Jean-Philippe Mateta (10).
With just 5.9% ownership and AI predicting him to score 20 points across the first four #FPL gameweeks, he looks like a solid differential. 🤖
— Squawka (@Squawka) August 12, 2025
At the other end of the pitch, Tottenham's Pedro Porro should be the most targeted defender. As well as having a strong chance to keep a clean sheet, the full-back poses an attacking threat. No defender had more shot-creating actions in the EPL last season (according to fbref.com).
With James Maddison set for an extended spell on the sidelines and Son Heung-min leaving to join Los Angeles FC, Porro should also feature heavily on set-pieces. He has a good chance to provide a goal involvement and a clean sheet in the season opener.
A defender who won't be rostered by many this week is Jayden Bogle. The Leeds United full-back scored six goals last season and tallied four assists, helping Leeds to win the Championship title. According to fbref.com, Bogle's 111 shot-creating actions were the 20th most in the Championship.
Leeds hosts Everton on Monday, and Bogle has a chance for a clean sheet. Everton have made some interesting signings but still lack a proven goalscorer. Bouyed on by what will be a raucous atmosphere, Bogle is an under-the-radar defensive option this week.
Bet Tracker
Below is a quick recap of our picks this week and the parlay odds for the plays. We'll be tracking all our picks throughout the season, individually and as a weekly parlay. Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!
Aston Villa vs. Newcastle United: Ollie Watkins to score anytime (+150) 1 unit
Brighton vs. Fulham; Betting Pick: Double Chance - Fulham or draw (-122) 2 units
Chelsea vs. Crystal Palace: Both Teams to Score - Yes (-137) 2 units
Parlay all three picks (+687) 1 unit
