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The top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on July 5th, 2019. Austyn Varney's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
Welcome to Friday baseball on DraftKings! Hopefully every stayed safe on the 4th and maybe even cashed some DFS lineups. Whether you played last night or not, we'll catch you up with tonight's slate and dissect some top plays at each position. The baseball gods have blessed us with a 13 game slate full of twists and turns.
There are some ways to pay up at pitcher, but there's a lot of expensive bats and you'll have to sacrifice somewhere. We have some solid value arms, but they may get popular in which case there would be value in spending up. Let's find some value that won't be overly popular and some bats they'll help you afford. Let's dive in!
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 7/5/19. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. Be sure to also check out all the Vegas Odds for today's slate. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for sites like FanDuel, and other sports too. If you have any questions or comments, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @VarneyDFS.
DraftKings DFS Starting Pitchers
Dakota Hudson - STL @ SF - $7,600
There are a few expensive pitching options, but you don’t need me to let you know they are good plays. We’ll instead focus on two cheaper options that will help you open up for some pricey bats. Hudson and the Cards go into San Francisco as favorites in what should be a low-scoring affair (8 O/U). The Giants rank 29th in all of baseball against righties, sporting a .284 team wOBA and striking out 25% of the time. Dakota Hudson fell apart in his last start, but he only gave up one earned run. Over the five prior games, Hudson put up 20+ fantasy points three times and will look to return there tonight. He strikes out 27% of the batters he faces and is a very strong arm against righties. This match-up just sets up well and the price is extremely friendly.
Julio Teheran - ATL vs. MIA - $6,600
Teheran is even cheaper and in the best match-up in all of baseball. If you don’t already know that’s the Marlins, you haven’t played much DFS this season. The Marlins have ranked dead last against right-handed pitching with a .271 team wOBA and absurd 27% strikeout rate. You then have Julio Teheran, who’s an ace-level pitcher vs righties and a below average one vs lefties. The Marlins only have two or three lefties max and Teheran will split through the lineup with ease. He’s far too cheap here and a guy I’m willing to plant my flag in. The upside for seven innings of dominant baseball is up for grabs here. They still consider Teheran the ace and will let him go against the Marlins if pitching well.
DraftKings DFS Infielders
C - Christian Vasquez - BOS @ DET (Carpenter - L) - $4,300
The Tigers have flipped between Greg Soto and Ryan Carpenter as the starter in this one. It doesn’t matter. They’re two of the worst pitchers in baseball and both have actually allowed a .360+ wOBA to right-handed bats. The Red Sox are clearly one of the top stacks of the night. Christian Vasquez has been a lot better (.342) against lefties and most of his power comes against them. He’s affordable and at a position without much opportunity cost. Especially if you think McKay stifles the Yanks.
1B - Josh Bell - PIT vs. MIL (Davies - R) - $5,600
With the cheap pitching available, you can pay up for a few of these bats. Josh Bell is the most expensive first baseman on the slate and it should keep him under 10-15% owned. Zach Davies is an average pitcher and his troubles against lefties are well noted. So far in 2019, he's allowed a 5.90 xFIP and .360 wOBA. 20 extra base hits in just 40 innings of work. Josh Bell and his insane .433 wOBA against righties won't have any issue putting hard wood on the ball vs Davies and PNC Park is much better for left handed power. Bell is expensive, but he can hit multiple home runs on any night and is never too highly owned.
2B - Michael Chavis - BOS @ DET (Carpenter - L) - $4,200
We’ll come back around to the Red Sox at second with Michael Chavis. Sporting a .413 wOBA vs lefties, he’s worth taking a look at any time a southpaw is on the mound. Ryan Carpenter has been one of the absolute worst pitchers in baseball and has sported numbers that are unbelievably bad (.400+ wOBA, 40%+ hard contact rate, etc.). Chavis and the Sox are an easy play tonight and he’s an affordable option in all formats.
3B - Matt Chapman - OAK @ SEA (Kikuchi - L) - $4,900
Matt Chapman is quietly one of the best hitters in all of baseball. He’s even in the MVP discussion if the A’s are able to have a successful second half. He’s sported a .392 combined wOBA and is insane against lefties with a .447. Yusei Kikuchi has been terrible against righties, allowing a 5.22 xFIP and nearly a 2 HR/9. Chapman has as much home run upside as anyone on the slate and will be 10% or less owned, like he always is on large skates. There’s a lot of profit to be made with Matt Chapman on nights where the attention is elsewhere.
SS - Tim Beckham - SEA vs. OAK (Anderson - L) - $3,600
Tim Beckham has had quite an up and down season, but he’s in the league because of his success against left-handed pitching. He’s held a .341 wOBA against lefties compared to a .288 vs righties. He’s a platoon socialist, but is cheap and has a lot of power for an value SS. Brett Anderson is on the downside of his career and is currently sporting a 5.14 xFIP next to a 4.36 K/9. The Mariners should beat him up early and often and Beckham will have plenty of RBI opportunities. He’s a solid value play that still has a ton of upside in tournaments.
DraftKings DFS Outfielders
Juan Soto - WAS vs. KC (Keller - R) - $5,400
If you're looking for an outfielder to spend some funds on, Juan Soto is a good choice. This entire Nationals team stack is in play here against Brad Keller, who's simply not ready for the majors just yet. His xFIP is still sitting over 4.50 and he's allowed a .451 wOBA to lefties. Juan Soto has immense power and can get the ball out of any park against righties (.387 wOBA). DraftKings has manually upped his salary for this tremendous match-up and it will hopefully keep the masses off of him. There's plenty of value to help you pay up and Soto has as much upside as anyone.
Max Kepler - MIN vs. TEX (Sampson - R) - $4,700
Max Kepler is one of the most dangerous lead off bats in the game next to George Springer. He hits both sides of the plate well and is an legitimate home run threat every single time he steps up to the plate. He's already up to 21 home runs in under 300 at-bats and he's sporting a .388 wOBA vs right handers. Adrian Sampson is a below average pitcher by every stretch and he's given up a 4.42 xFIP backed by a .342 wOBA. Sampson is going to struggle vs the gauntlet of a Twins lineup and they're an overlooked stack that could have a huge night. They certainly have the firepower for it.
