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Mike's CFB betting picks against the spread for Week 10 (November 2-3, 2022) Every FBS college football game analyzed with his top wagers and NCAA best bets.
We get some MACtion this week! I haven't cleared off the DVR yet, so the spread picks for the MAC games will be included in the DFS articles. The 47-game week got off to a great start with Utah not playing Cameron Rising even though he had no injury designation. That wasn't the only time that happened this week.
What did we learn in Week 9? There is more parity in the Big 12(10) than in any other conference. The tight end is making a comeback in the college game. Sometimes switching quarterbacks can make really bad offenses look good again. Sometimes it just takes a game against the Northwestern "defense."
Another poor Thursday set the tone for the week and again put me in a hole that I don't think I got out of. Hopefully some MACtion will turn things around for me!
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CFB Betting Picks for Week 10 (11/3 and 11/4)
I will fill you in on what's going to happen this year. I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top-five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
UTEP at Rice(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line opened with the Miners a road favorite. Again, this much play in a line makes me nervous. Gavin Hardison set a career-high in passing yards against the Owls last season and Ronald Awatt put up big numbers on the ground as well. However, T.J. McMahon has changed this Rice team. I'll take the Owls, but am lowering the bet because of last week's mess.
Appalachian State(-2.5) at Coastal Carolina
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
So...one week after getting absolutely demolished on the ground by Old Dominion – a notorious passing team – the Chanticleers lock down Marshall and Khalan Laborn on the ground. This is a team that held Army to 202 rushing yards and has held half of their opponents under 90 rushing yards. I'll take CCU outright at home thanks to that run defense.
Massachusetts at Connecticut(-15.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Huskies are getting back-to-back wins against Massachusetts teams! Give me UConn!
Duke(-9.5) at Boston College
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line has more than tripled since it opened. That alone is terrifying. The Eagles haven't elaborated on the status of Phil Jurkovec. That Boston College offensive line is a huge liability right now, but I'm not sure Duke's D can exploit it. I'll take BC at home. They might not win, but this is too many points.
(23)Oregon State at Washington(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Oregon State is going to have to pass to keep up and I'm just not sure they can do it. Michael Penix is throwing up 300+ again. It's what he does in this offense. Give me Washington.
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CFB Betting Picks - Last Week's Results
I promised transparency and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone when they won't admit the good or the bad? Here are the results from week 9. Winners against the spread will be in bold. My result will follow.
I was just hoping to keep my head above water this week, but I saw a handful of bad beats, so I'm not all that optimistic about it.
Virginia Tech at (24)North Carolina State(-13.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
A 21-point third quarter for the Hokies sunk my bet. This was almost the first FBS game this season to be scoreless at halftime. A late field goal by the Wolfpack sunk that. M.J. Morris likely earned himself a start after his performance here. Still, this was the best that I've seen this Hokies defense play this season...by far.
Louisiana(-1.5) at Southern Mississippi: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
See Frank run. See Frank throw. See Louisiana have no answer for Frank Gore Jr. The Cajuns played well enough after the first quarter, but early turnovers buried them. Southern Miss had touchdown passes on consecutive offensive plays in the first quarter (one of those from Gore) and never looked back.
(14)Utah(-7.5) at Washington State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Utah was without Rising and Tavion Thomas (at least we knew about that one) and still won...on the road...but not by enough.
East Carolina at BYU(-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
The BYU defense did a nice job on Holton Ahlers, but Keaton Mitchell ran wild on the Cougars. Their run defense is a disaster right now.
Louisiana Tech(-6.5) at Florida International: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
FIU didn't need Gunnar Holmberg, and if I'm being honest, Grayson James earned the right to continue to start for this team. He's still not super accurate, but he threw for three touchdowns and didn't turn the ball over. Not to mention, he led the Panthers to a double-overtime win.
(2)Ohio State(-15.5) at (13)Penn State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This game was a lot closer than the score indicated. The Buckeyes threw together three scores in about four minutes in the fourth quarter. They then proceeded to blow the cover by allowing Penn State to score in a 50-second touchdown drive. Thanks, guys! They gave me hope for about five minutes...
(7)TCU(-7.5) at West Virginia: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
I got lucky with this one. Max Duggan threw for a touchdown on fourth down with around 30 seconds left because the Mountaineers jumped offsides and he knew that he had a free play. Thanks Max!
Notre Dame at (16)Syracuse(-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The loss of Garrett Shrader in the first half hurt the Orange, but there were just too many errors for Syracuse. Notre Dame got a pick-six on the first play from scrimmage. Carlos Del Rio-Wilson played well enough in relief, but penalties and the defense's inability to get off the field on third downs allowed the Irish to win outright.
Arkansas(-3.5) at Auburn: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was probably the best game so far for Robby Ashford, but it was wasted because the Auburn defense couldn't stop Raheim Sanders, or the rest of the Arkansas runners for that matter.
Oklahoma(-1.5) at Iowa State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I never thought I would say this in the 2022 season, but it was a great performance by the Oklahoma defense. Hunter Dekkers was picked off three times, including twice in the fourth quarter to seal the Oklahoma win. Our defense still has issues. The run defense is better so long as a running back has it and not the quarterback. There were still enough lapses in the game to make me apprehensive, but I liked what I saw from the offense against a good defense with the exception of the drops by Marvin Mims.
Boston College(-7.5) at Connecticut: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This was the first win for UConn over Boston College in 15 tries. This defense will get after you. The offense is still a bit of a mess. Zion Turner has shown flashes of brilliance and will only get better. That BC offensive line is going to get poor Phil Jurkovec killed. They couldn't keep him upright on anything more than a three-step drop and even those are an adventure.
Georgia Tech at Florida State(-24.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Georgia Tech offense had one first down in the entire first half but were still in the game at intermission. You want a bad beat? How about Tech scoring a touchdown on the final play of the game and not getting to kick the extra point, which would have won the bet.
South Florida at Houston(-17.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Houston is arguably the most undisciplined team I have watched this year and definitely the dirtiest. Unsportsmanlike conduct fouls are commonplace for the Cougars, and not a one of them has been undeserved. It makes me want to bet against them every time...
Toledo(-6.5) at Eastern Michigan: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
It wasn't just Eastern Michigan that screwed me this week. It was Toledo, who held out Dequan Finn despite him not being listed on any injury report. Are you sensing a pattern here? Tucker Gleason had a nice first start and still won the game. Just not by enough...
Miami(OH)(-8.5) at Akron: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
DJ Irons had another strong game, but the one interception he threw was returned for a touchdown and the team only mustered 22 carries on 11 yards from guys not named DJ Irons. Too many turnovers by the Zips let the game get a little out of hand.
Miami(FL)(-1.5) at Virginia: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
How bad are these two offenses? They scored a combined 12 points in the first 60 minutes of the game. They only scored 14 more combined in four freaking overtimes. And here I thought that New Mexico State and UMass would be the worst game of the weekend...
Charlotte at Rice(-16.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Chris Reynolds throws for five touchdowns and Charlotte blows out Rice. You know...the outcome that everyone saw coming...
Rutgers at Minnesota(-13.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Mohamed Ibrahim is the best running back in college football. There. I said it. He doesn't play on the best team or behind the best line. He's not even that great of a pass catcher. However, he's one of the best pure runners I've seen in a long time. That Minnesota defense is really good when they want to be.
Old Dominion at Georgia State(-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Danny Grainger can do it all for the Panthers. He did once again.
Florida vs. (1)Georgia(-22.5) at Jacksonville: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I won it by the half. Thankfully, Florida put together a strong third quarter to keep from getting completely embarrassed.
(8)Oregon(-17.5) at California: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
There were more unkind halves than kind ones this week. That means Vegas had a good read on the lines this week. Cal's offense really didn't get going until the game was out of reach. Bo Nix had another very strong game. It's amazing what getting away from Bryan Harsine did for him...
(9)Oklahoma State at (22)Kansas State(-1.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
If I'm going to be wrong, I may as well be really wrong. Adrian Martinez may have lost his job here. I'm sure he didn't, but the Wildcats now know that they don't have to be in a hurry to bring him back. Will Howard is the second-most improved player in the conference right now. The K-State defense locked down the Pokes. Spencer Sanders exiting early didn't help, but this game was out of hand before he left. This might be the most dominant performance I have ever seen from a K-State team. Want to add more insult to the Cowboys' injury? This was the first time a top-ten team has suffered a shutout loss by 40+ points since 1968.
(10)Wake Forest(-3.5) at Louisville: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It's impossible to win a game when you turn the ball over six freaking times in one quarter! That was Wake's third quarter. The Louisville defense managed to crush the spirit of a grizzled veteran like Sam Hartman. I've never seen him as demoralized as he was after that fourth turnover of the quarter. The worst was yet to come!
(17)Illinois(-7.5) at Nebraska: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Nebraska hung around for a while, but when Casey Thompson went down, hopes for the Huskers went down with him. Chubba Purdy was mostly awful and the offense struggled to move the ball. Though the defense did a solid job, Chase Brown still got his 150 yards and Tommy DeVito only had two incompletions.
(20)Cincinnati at Central Florida(-1.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I knew better. The Cincinnati defense still couldn't hold up when it really mattered. They curbed the penalties for the most part, but they should have been able to hold UCF inside of a minute.
Northwestern at Iowa(-11.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
That's what I get for thinking Northwestern was improving. That was already baked into the line. That Iowa defense is about as good as it gets. The offense looked better, but that was Northwestern. Let's see them do it to a real team. The silver lining for Iowa is that they have played plenty of worse defenses than the Wildcats and still have not moved the ball (Nevada, anyone??). This is what progress looks like in Iowa City.
New Mexico State(-2.5) at Massachusetts: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Is Diego Pavia the answer for the Aggies, or is UMass just that bad? I'm going with the latter...
Temple at Navy(-13.5): HIT
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
It took the Middies overtime to dispose of Temple. Of course, if Tai Lavatai hadn't had to leave the game, it would have given Navy a chance to drive the field at the end of regulation. You can't do that with Xavier Arline. We saw a little more improvement from E.J. Warner. Baby steps are fine for a team like Temple where moral victories still count. This was one of those.
SMU(-2.5) at Tulsa: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Is it possible that Preston Stone is a better fit than Tanner Mordecai? That at least has to be explored at this point. This game wasn't nearly as close as the score indicated. The Ponies were up 45-20 after the fumble return for a touchdown in the third quarter. I call out the SMU defense and they came through with a couple of big plays.
North Texas at Western Kentucky(-10.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I have heaped praise on Max Duggan this year (with good reason), but he might not even be the most-improved quarterback in his own state. Austin Aune lost his quarterback job not once, but twice last year. His 23 touchdowns this season have already doubled his career total (and he has started for almost two full seasons). The interceptions are still a bit of an issue, but six of the nine he has thrown were in the first five games. He hasn't had a multi-interception game since September 24. I didn't expect an outright win here, let alone a blowout, but North Texas earned it.
Missouri at (25)South Carolina(-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
That corner that South Carolina turned? They actually made a left turn instead of a right and drove down into a ravine. The South Carolina offense was a disaster the entire game. Spencer Rattler turned it over too much. They couldn't run the ball. It was a comedy of errors for the SC offense. Eli Drinkwitz has put together a pretty good defense there at Missouri. Now the offense just needs some consistency.
South Alabama(-9.5) at Arkansas State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Jags took control of the game even in the first-half deluge behind La'Damian Webb. We all forgot how good he was. It's nice to see him back out there at full strength. I like watching him run.
(19)Kentucky at (3)Tennessee(-12.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Tennessee went to LSU and blew out what is now a top-ten team before toppling Bama. They blow out an archrival the week before one of the biggest games in Tennessee history, and definitely the biggest one of this century. This team is laser-focused. This was an absolute beat-down by a beleaguered pass defense.
(10)USC(-15.5) at Arizona: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
The offense is elite. The defense is kind of a mess, especially in road games. This was probably Caleb Williams' best game at USC so far and they needed every bit of it because the Trojans' secondary couldn't cover anyone!
Colorado State at Boise State(-25.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Well, the Rams hung around for about a quarter. I guess that's progress... Even the return of Clay Millen couldn't help this offense.
Coastal Carolina at Marshall(-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The CCU run defense was great one week after they were a sieve against Old Dominion. That said, CCU scored all but three of their points in the first quarter. That defense locked down the Herd without Henry Columbi to coast to a win.
UAB(-4.5) at Florida Atlantic: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Owls looked better and they played better. They still couldn't stop DeWayne McBride and were outgained by nearly 200 yards but still won even without the benefit of a turnover. This was an aberration. All of the UAB stats were better, but N'Kosi Perry had one of his best games with the Owls even though the numbers weren't gaudy. It's amazing how you can control the game with a good punter. That's exactly what FAU did to keep flipping field position.
Michigan State at (4)Michigan(-22.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I'm glad the Spartans' defense held tough for the first half because they lost control in the second. The Michigan ground game is a finely-oiled machine right now.
(15)Mississippi(-1.5) at Texas A&M: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Conner Weigman likely won the quarterback job with this performance. A&M was in it until the end and the offense scored more than 21 points for the first time in nine games. They made Ole Miss work for this one. The run defense still needs some work, but the Aggies' offense finally was able to move the ball for much of the game. That's something.
Arizona State(-11.5) at Colorado: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is not the same J.T. Shrout that was running for his life the first three games of the season. The young Colorado receivers are starting to get comfortable. Arizona State had the cover until a punt return for a touchdown, but where Colorado would have waved the white flag six weeks ago, they hung around and made Sparky work for this one.
Baylor at Texas Tech(-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Baylor laid 21 on Tech in the fourth quarter, so the final score is a bit misleading. Tech was never in danger of winning this game though. The Baylor defense got after Behren Morton and blanketed those receivers. It was an impressive defensive performance for the Bears.
Pittsburgh at (21)North Carolina(-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It's not much of a stretch to say that Drake Maye is about as good as Sam Howell throwing the ball. He's not nearly the runner that Howell is, but Maye torched the Pitt secondary for five touchdown passes and just continues to put up big numbers. Somehow, the Heels are 7-1 even with a defense that has a lot of holes.
Middle Tennessee State at UTEP(-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I need to lay off UTEP for a while. Their defense got rocked by the Blue Raiders' passing game and I'm now 1-7 picking the Miners this year. Yuck!
Stanford at (12)UCLA(-16.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Stanford got destroyed on the ground by Zach Charbonnet and the slow mesh doesn't work against fast defenses. I probably should have known better. A bad night gets worse!
San Diego State at Fresno State(-8.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is a game that the Aztecs should have won. This was a crazy finish. San Diego State led by 11 with under three minutes left after blocking a Fresno field goal earlier in the fourth. Fresno scored and got the onside kick...then scored on the very next play. Jalen Mayden played a great game, but threw an interception to end the game. It was the sixth turnover of the game for the Aztecs.
Nevada at San Jose State(-24.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This was the first time that San Jose State has rallied from a 14-point deficit to win since 2013! Nine years! Shane Illingworth has finally won the quarterback job for the Pack. It only took him about six months...
Wyoming(-10.5) at Hawaii: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Moral victories still count for Hawaii in Timmy Chang's first season as coach. I also think that Titus Swen just lost his job. D.Q. James had another monster game.
College Football Betting Season Results
Now is the time of the week when we tally up the scores. This was another disaster of a week. I started off well enough in the afternoon, but I ended up with a disappointing 19-28 finish. I am now at 223-251 on the season, 28 games down. That's a lot to make up in a month.
USC's defense and Dequan Finn not playing torched a couple of my max bets and Okie State getting blown out in the Little Apple didn't help. I know I lost some more points this week...
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 5-3 (34-22) = 12
2. 5-16 (91-104) = -26
3. 6-3 (64-76) = -36
4. 1-3 (25-34) = -36
5. 2-3 (9-15) = -30
The ones were good once again. I can't live on ones alone. I lost another 24 points this week to put me a blasphemous 116 points down on the season. My piggy bank is empty and I owe it 26 points. It's hard to be optimistic right now, but I'll keep plugging along. This week will be better. It can't really get worse...
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