CFB Expert Betting Picks for Week Five (10/3/2020)

October 2, 2020

Our CFB betting picks, analysis and recommendations for Week 5. Every week, Nick Federline reviews some of the best available bets for the college football slate.

Week Four of the fall college football season was a thriller. Texas managed to overcome a double-digit deficit in the final minutes to stave off Texas Tech's upset bid, whereas fellow Big 12 titan Oklahoma was shocked at home against Kansas State.

Week Four was an unfortunate bump in the road for the record, with a 1-2 performance. Kansas State's monumental second half comeback to knock off Oklahoma easily surpassed the over. However, Auburn came to play as they easily dispatched of Kentucky, and Liberty narrowly knocked down Florida International, but failed to cover the 7-point spread. On the season, the picks have been 4-4, with Week Five presenting an opportunity to get back in the green.

In week five, a wide array of competitive conference games awaits us. Here are some betting picks to follow along with as you enjoy another Saturday of college football.

#25 Memphis at Southern Methodist (+2)

O/U: 74

The Memphis Tigers enter this week at 1-0, having beaten Arkansas State in their season opener, only to not play for 28 days. New coach Ryan Silverfield inherited a strong returning cast of players from Mike Norvell's 2019 squad, and the offense is the key. Quarterback Brady White and his top receiver Damonte Coxie are among the most feared pass-catching duo in the nation and will be trying to take the top off of the SMU defense all day. While the Memphis defense leaves plenty to be desired, this offense is one of the best in the country and will challenge American Athletic Conference (AAC) defenses all season long.

Senior quarterback Shane Buechele has had a strong start to the season, with 852 passing yards and 7 touchdowns. The Mustangs are 3-0 entering conference play, with this game having been circled months ago as their top target. While SMU's offense is the strength of the team, their special teams have created some spark plays including a blocked punt last week for a safety. On the ground, Ulysses Bentley is averaging 126.7 yards per game, and 10.6 yards per carry. Wide receiver Reggie Roberson on the outside has stepped in nicely to fill the absence of top receiver James Proche, a current Baltimore Raven, from a year ago.

In the 2019 edition of this top tier AAC showdown, Memphis held off SMU at home in front of a College GameDay crowd in a 54-48 game. In that game, all-around playmaker Antonio Gibson had an astounding 386 all-purpose yards. Gibson is now with the Washington Football Team, and Memphis after a long lay-off also will be without his backup last season in running back Kenneth Gainwell. The offensive play in this game should be prolific and this should be a must-watch for anyone who likes a flurry of points and big plays.

#11 North Carolina at Boston College (+14)

O/U: 54

When Coach Mack Brown decided to return to UNC as a 67-year old first-year head coach in 2019, skeptics were aplenty. A season later with a bowl win under his belt and a superstar sophomore quarterback in Sam Howell leading the team, expectations are sky-high for the Tar Heels. After their September 12 win over Syracuse, the team's second game was cancelled due to a COVID-19 outbreak decimating a full position group for their anticipated opponent - the Charlotte 49ers. After a 3-week layoff, Coach Brown's team heads north for its first road game of the year. Brown will hope that the aerial attack of Howell, and his talented trio of receivers Dyami Brown, Dazz Newsome and Beau Corrales can score in bunches to offset an uneven defense which has 6 underclassmen starting.

Boston College survived a strong upset bid from Texas State to win on a last-second 36-yard field goal by Aaron Boumerhi, a former Temple graduate transfer, last week. The Eagles have jumped to a quick 2-0 start behind very strong defensive play, a solid rushing attack, and a steady hand at quarterback in Notre Dame transfer Phil Jurkovec. In the team's season-opening beatdown of Duke, the balanced offensive attack gave Coach Jeff Hafley an easy first win at the helm. While game two was much more difficult, the fourth quarter comeback led by Jurkovec and tight end Hunter Long showed the offensive potential this team can have when running on all cylinders.

Reviving Tar Heels football will not happen overnight, and Coach Brown's job of taking them to a 7-6 record in 2019 was impressive in its own right. The high expectations that national and local media are putting on this team seem a bit unfair, aggressive and undeserved. The Tar Heels very well could contend for the ACC next season when Clemson has to replace Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne, but for the time being they appear to be a second or third tier team not yet worthy of ACC Championship discussion.

Pick: Boston College +14

Virginia at #1 Clemson (-28)

O/U: 55

Coach Dabo Swinney's run of excellence with the Clemson Tigers is downright marvelous. Clemson has appeared in each of the last five national championship games and is a favorite to make an appearance once again in 2020. Through two games, the Tigers offense has started fast and eased up after having significant leads over Wake Forest and The Citadel. Lawrence and star running back Travis Etienne have largely taken a back seat, playing in the first halves and sitting the majority of the second halves this season. Virginia brings a unique opponent that will challenge the Tigers from the start. If Virginia can keep the Clemson starters on the field, Clemson might be able to reach the total for this game on their own - as they did in the teams' last matchup.

The last time these teams met, the 2019 ACC Championship game, the outcome of the game was decided well before the 62-17 final score flashed on the scoreboard. Virginia was just happy to be there, while Clemson was chasing yet another national title game appearance.

Pick: Over 55

Bonus Game: Central Arkansas at North Dakota State (-23)

Pick: Central Arkansas +23

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