X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (4/29/2025)

Trevor Larnach - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB News

Casey Wilson's best MLB player prop bets for today (4/29/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props.

We have a massive slate of games with all 30 teams in action today. We have some good hitting ballparks and environments with weather that make this an elite slate for hunting home runs. We will focus on park factor, weather, and matchups against pitchers, including handiness, pitch mix, and arm angle.

I will provide my five favorite home run bets on today’s slate. My favorite way to bet home runs is to round robin them, which I will do tonight. There are plenty of bets tonight with value, so to make a profit, we only need two of our five hitters to go yard.

Read on to find my favorite home run props from MLB games on TuesdayApril 292025. The odds are from DraftKings or FanDuel Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Don't forget to shop at other sportsbooks to find the best value on your wagers.

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 50% off using code SUMMER. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

 

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks

Here are the hitters I'll cover for Tuesday, April 29:

Jose Ramirez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+450 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Our first two targets will come from the same game, and if you read this article, the following paragraph will sound very familiar. The unfortunate part is that last time, this game got cancelled. Let’s hope this one plays. Regardless of the next section, I want to note that I fully love these subsequent two bets. I still want to attack these spots if the wind changes throughout the day.

Tonight, Progressive Field is supposed to experience 15 mph winds blowing out to right field with a slight crosswind. Some may wonder why this is such a significant advantage, but the stadium is very receptive to winds in that direction due to its open concourses. On days like this, it creates a wind tunnel to right field.

Paddack has been receptive to the long ball this season. He has a 2.01 HR/9 and a 44.1 percent FB. Over his last two starts, he has a 1.80 HR/9 and a 40.7 percent FB. He has identical numbers with power, FB%, and HR/9 to both sides of the plate, so I am targeting the best hitters regardless of handiness.

The top bat for the Guardians in this matchup is Jose Ramirez. Since 2024, Jose has had a .335 wOBA and a .221 ISO against right-handed pitching. He has also had a .460 wOBA and a .211 ISO in 160 pitches against right-handed pitchers with the same arm angle as Paddack. Jose has hit four of his five home runs against right-handed pitching this season, and he has pulled all of them.

Trevor Larnach OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+500 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Trevor Larnach is my next home run bet of the night. He is in the same hitting environment as Ramirez. Larnach is a big-time pull hitter, which will help in this ballpark and weather. All four of his home runs in 2025 have been pulled.

If you have been a consistent reader of this article, you know we have been attacking Tanner Bibee with home runs every time he pitches. In 2025, Bibee has a 5.01 xFIP, 2.77 HR/9, and a 43.4 percent FB. He has a 3.09 HR/9, 41.9 percent FB, and a 95.7 percent Z-Contact over his last two starts. Lefties have a 3.6 HR/9, 48.6 percent FB, and a 31.4 percent Hard Hit this season. He has a 42.9 Pull percentage against lefties, which plays right into Larnach’s hands.

Larnach has been elite against right-hand pitching this season. He has a .352 wOBA and a .192 ISO against the split this season. In his last 20 plate appearances, he has a .602 wOBA, .635 ISO, and three home runs against the split. Larnach also hits Bibee's arm angle well. He has a .337 wOBA, .325 ISO, and four home runs in 160 pitches. I love parlaying these two for a risk-free bet on DraftKings.

Another angle for bets here is a "Yes, First Run Inning" wager that either Cleveland or Minnesota will score at least a run in the first frame. I know Thunder Dan is on that bet today, and you can check out all his NRFI/YRFI bets here.

 

Sports Betting Promo Offers

Featured Promo: Get any Betting Premium Pass for 50% off using code SUMMER. Win more with exclusive betting picks from proven winners across 9 sports! Find optimal bets with our Betting Picks Tool and Bet Weighting Tool and follow along in our VIP chat rooms! Go Premium, Win More!

 

Jackson Chourio OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+500 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Chourio is not only my top home run bet tonight, but he is also my top DFS play. He has been incredible against right-hand pitching this season. He has a .319 wOBA, .221 ISO, 42.4 percent FB, and a 25.6 percent Hard Hit. He has four home runs against the split this season. Over his last 19 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, he has a .424 wOBA, .278 ISO, and a 41.7 percent Hard Hit.

The main attraction here is the matchup with Bryse Wilson. Wilson has a 5.02 xFIP, 2.45 HR/9, 40.0 percent FB, and a 92.3 Z-Contact percentage. Over his last two appearances, he has a 2.70 HR/9, 46.2 percent Hard Hit, and a 96.8 Z-Contact percentage. Wilson has a 3.2 HR/9, 39.3 percent FB, and a 42.9 percent Hard hit against right-hand pitching this season.

The numbers above don’t get much worse than that for Wilson. The matchup is as good as it can be for Chourio, although the park and weather are below average. Lastly, Chourio has a .473 wOBA, .411 ISO, and five home runs against 222 pitches against the same arm angle as Wilson. The young star may lead this game off with a home run.

Matt Olson OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+390 FanDuel Sportsbook)

For our fourth bet of the night, we head back to a great hitting environment with a trip to Coors Field. It will be a bit cold, but it is still Coors, and the elevation does the trick no matter the temperature. Matt Olson will get an elite matchup with righty German Marquez.

Over his last two starts, Marquez has been atrocious. He has a 3.86 HR/9, 47.8 percent FB, and a 91.7 Z-Contact percentage. Left-hand hitters have crushed him this season. Lefties have a 6.72 xFIP, 1.9 HR/9, 54.3 percent FB, and a 28.6 Hard Hit percentage. I do like right-hand bats a bit more in this park, but the matchup is too hard to ignore for lefties.

Enter Matt Olson. Olson is off to a much better start in 2025. He has a .327 wOBA, .177 ISO, 33.3 percent FB, and a 39.7 Hard Hit percentage against right-hand pitching this season. He has a .448 wOBA, .269 ISO, and four home runs against right-handed pitchers with the same arm angle as Marquez. Olson leaves the yard tonight.

Cal Raleigh OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+300 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Last but certainly not least is old reliable Cal Raleigh. Raleigh is off to a blistering hot start, with ten home runs already on the season. He has hit seven of those against right-handed pitching, and tonight, he will square off against one of the worst right-handed starters in the big leagues.

The ballpark here in Seattle is among some of the worst for the long ball, but the matchup with Jack Kochanowicz is too hard to ignore. Kochanowicz has a 4.90 xFIP, 1.71 HR/9, 35.2 percent FB and a 92.6 Z-Contact percentage. Over his last two starts, he has a 1.69 HR/9, 35.0 percent FB, and a 93.8 Z-Contact percentage.

Lefties will be our focus here, as Kochanowicz has struggled against the split this season, posting a 4.56 xFIP, 2.7 HR/9, 38.3 percent FB, and a 40.4 Hard Hit percentage in 2025. There are two lefties in this lineup, Raleigh and Jorge Polanco, who profiled well here. I will most likely end up betting on both tonight.

Raleigh, as mentioned above, is red hot in 2025. He has a .413 wOBA, .356 ISO, 59.6 percent FB, and a 42.3 Hard Hit percentage against right-hand pitching. He has a .382 wOBA, .294 ISO, 66.7 percent FB, and a 50.0 Hard Hit percentage over his last 20 plate appearances. It is worth noting that Polanco has four home runs during this same span.

The biggest separator between the two for me was the deeper analytic research into the pitch mix and arm angle against them. Raleigh profiles much better against arms with similar arm angles to Kochanowicz. He has a .375 wOBA, .250 ISO, and three home runs. Raleigh will bring us home on a high note tonight.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Keandre Lambert-Smith

KeAndre Lambert-Smith Finds End Zone in First Training Camp Practice
Tyler Shough

Pushing for Fully Guaranteed Rookie Deal
Ar'Darius Washington

Goes on PUP List
Lamar Jackson

to be Even Better in 2025?
Tre Harris

Agrees to Terms on Rookie Deal
Justin Herbert

Off to Good Start at Training Camp
Jameson Williams

Earning Rave Reviews from Lions Coaches
Christian Mahogany

Expected to Start for Lions
Zach Allen

an Extension Candidate in Denver?
Zaire Franklin

May Miss Start of Training Camp
Portland Trail Blazers

Damian Lillard Returning to Portland
Mason Taylor

to Play "Crucial" Role in Jets' Offense
Paul Skenes

Pirates Could Preserve Paul Skenes in Second Half
T.J. Watt

Once Again Becomes Highest-Paid Non-QB
RJ Harvey

Reaches Agreement on Four-Year Rookie Contract
Rashee Rice

Chiefs Believe Rashee Rice Will Receive Two- to Four-Game Suspension
Brooks Barnhizer

Grabs 19 Points, Nine Boards in Summer League Win
Jack Kiser

Inks Rookie Deal With Jaguars
Mike Green

Expected to Sign Rookie Deal with Ravens on Thursday
Mike Williams

Retiring After Eight NFL Seasons
Jeremiah Fears

Scores 22 Points in Summer League Loss to Thunder
Jordan Addison

Pleads Guilty to Lesser Offense, Gets Fine and Probation
Jordan Mims

Titans Add Backfield Depth With Jordan Mims
Isaiah Collier

Collects 17 Points In Summer League Win
Anthony Richardson Sr.

Believed to be Recovered From Shoulder Injury
Najee Harris

Chargers Place Najee Harris on NFI List
Caleb Houstan

Joins Hawks
AJ Johnson

Erupts for 25 Points in Summer League Loss
Washington Wizards

Leaky Black Logs Double-Double in Loss to Jazz
Connor Norby

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-8 Weeks
Trey Alexander

Tallies 25 Points in Losing Effort
Johni Broome

Records Second Consecutive Double-Double
Jahmir Young

Has Historic Summer League Outing
Rob Dillingham

Plays Big Role in Wednesday's Win
Tyrese Proctor

Erupts for 35 Points Against Kings
Cody Williams

Leads Jazz to Victory Against Wizards
LeBron James

Mavs Not Interested in "Gutting its Roster" For LeBron James
Josh Hart

Undergoes a Procedure on Right Finger
Jake Burger

Goes on 10-Day Injured List With Quad Strain
Sal Frelick

Dealing With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain, TBD for Start of Second Half
Chris Sale

Plays Catch
Los Angeles Clippers

Bradley Beal Heading to Los Angeles to Join Clippers After Contract Buyout
Rayan Rupert

Scores 24 Points in Summer League Win
Derik Queen

Collects Third Consecutive Double-Double in Summer League Loss
GG Jackson II

Records 13 Points in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Johni Broome

Logs Double-Double Against Wizards
DaRon Holmes II

Records Double-Double in Summer League Loss to Raptors
Kyle Schwarber

Named All-Star Game MVP
Harris English

Takes Stellar 2025 Performance to The Open Championship
Aldrich Potgieter

Seeks Better Result in Northern Ireland
Cameron Young

Likely to Hang Around at The Open Championship
Cameron Smith

Just Trying to Make the Cut at Royal Portrush
Jordan Spieth

Is Jordan Spieth Still a Natural for Links Style Golf?
Patrick Reed

a Viable Option at The Open Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound from Last Experience at Royal Portrush
Xander Schauffele

Looks to Defend His Claret Jug at Royal Portrush
Tony Finau

Trying to Turn Tide at Royal Portrush
Daniel Brown

Seeks a Rebound at The Open Championship
Rory McIlroy

Will be the Most Watched Player This Week at Royal Portrush
Daniel Berger

Trending Poorly as The Open Championship Looms
Clayton Kershaw

Retires Both Batters In ASG Appearance
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Hit In Pinky In All-Star Game, X-Rays Negative
MLB

NL All-Stars Win On Tie-Breaker Home Run Swing-Off
Robert MacIntyre

Hoping to Bounce Back at Open Championship
Shane Lowry

Hopes to Repeat at Royal Portrush
Brian Harman

Hopes to Rekindle Some Magic at the 153rd Open
UTA

Michael Carcone Returns to Utah on One-Year Contract
Bowen Byram

Signs Two-Year Deal with Sabres
Morgan Barron

Jets Re-Sign Morgan Barron for Two Years
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Oneil Cruz

Ties Home Run Derby Distance Record
Cal Raleigh

Wins 2025 Home Run Derby
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Michael Lorenzen

Royals Put Michael Lorenzen on Injured List With Oblique Strain
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Junior Tafa

Unsuccessful in his Light-Heavyweight Debut
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Tosses Gem Against Giants
Shota Imanaga

Shuts Down Yankees on Sunday
Nathan Eovaldi

Dominant Again in Seventh Win
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Chicago White Sox

Billy Carlson Goes 10th Overall to White Sox
Cincinnati Reds

Steele Hall Selected Ninth by Cincinnati
Toronto Blue Jays

Blue Jays Select JoJo Parker with Eighth Overall Pick
Miami Marlins

Marlins Select Aiva Arquette With Seventh Overall Pick
Pittsburgh Pirates

Pirates Select Seth Hernandez with Sixth Overall Pick
Kyle Stowers

Punishes Former Team with Three-Homer Game
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
Erik Karlsson

Open to Move Away From Pittsburgh
Zach Hyman

Hopes to be Ready for Start of Next Season
SJ

Jeff Skinner Joins Sharks on One-Year Contract
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF