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Read our best NRFI betting picks today - Major League Baseball NRFI predictions for 4/29/2025. No Runs First Inning (NRFI) betting tips, expert MLB predictions, odds, and trends.
It's a full slate of games, and I'm back again to bring you my best NRFI bets today and bonus bets. Last Friday, I featured four NRFI/YRFI bets, and we managed to hit three of those, with the one loss coming from what was supposed to be the best pitching matchup on the slate - Paul Skenes facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
It's a loaded slate in terms of good arms on the mound. Jacob deGrom and Freddy Peralta were in consideration for NFRI bets, but are facing unreliable openers on the other side of their matchups. Garrett Crochet is usually a target of mine, but I couldn't pull the trigger on Bowden Francis against that Red Sox offense. If you love a good, quick sweat, then NRFI bets might be just what you're looking for. I'll be targeting some of the better remaining pitching matchups and least productive offenses early in games when making my NRFI picks.
In this article, I'll provide my best NRFI bets today for the MLB games on Tuesday, April 29, 2025. Make sure to check the weather and projected lineups for each team before placing any bets. All odds are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook or DraftKings Sportsbook.
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What Are MLB NRFI/YRFI Bets?
NRFI bets are wagers placed on whether or not an MLB team will score a run in the first inning. MLB NRFI stands for "No Run First Inning", while YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning."
These are popular bets because bettors only have to sweat out the first inning and not the outcome of the entire game. The most common outcome for the first inning is a NRFI, so usually the odds will reflect that, with NRFI bets carrying shorter odds when compared to YRFIs.
Even the best offenses in baseball are still only scoring a run in roughly 50% of their first innings. Every day, I'll weigh the Vegas odds against what I calculate to be the expected probability of an NRFI/YRFI in each MLB game and provide my top NRFI picks and/or YRFI picks for your consideration.
Best First Inning Bets Today (April 29, 2025)
- Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians: 6:10 pm
- Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies: 6:45 pm
- Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros: 8:10 pm
- San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres: 9:40 pm
Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians YRFI (-105 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- MIN: Chris Paddack
- CLE: Tanner Bibee
My first official YRFI prediction of the season comes from this matchup of two AL Central teams with questionable pitchers on the bump.
Tanner Bibee has not pitched up to his expectations this year, entering today's game with a 5.19 ERA and 4.99 SIERA. Chris Paddack has been pretty rough, too, with a 6.45 ERA and 4.86 SIERA.
Both pitchers have struggled early in games, too, with 2-3 NRFI records through their first five starts. Paddack's first inning WHIP is 2.00, while Bibee's is 2.20. That's a lot of baserunners allowed, and both pitchers are allowing their opponents to hit .350, yikes!
Bibee has allowed four first-inning home runs, and the weather tonight in Cleveland might favor the left-handed hitters in this game, too. Check out our home run props article today, and you'll see that my dude, Casey Wilson, likes a couple of hitters to go yard in this one.
Despite a slow start to the season, this Minnesota team ranks 10th in MLB in YRFIs. They're trending in the right direction as well, with five YRFIs in their last 10 games. I love the number we are getting here, and I feel pretty good about this play.
Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies NRFI (-130 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- WAS: MacKenzie Gore
- PHI: Zack Wheeler
This is the first of my NRFI picks, and when you look at the stats from these starters, you'll understand why.
Both are having a fantastic March/April to start their regular season. We've come to expect this type of output from Wheeler, but Gore had been inconsistent, offering flashes of ace-level performance over the last few seasons but still struggling with control and blow-up starts at times.
Wheeler and Gore enter today's game with the two best SIERAs on the slate at 2.40 and 2.17, respectively. They are two of the top strikeout arms going today, too, and I always like targeting high K percentage pitchers with these bets as opposing offenses can't score when they don't put the ball in play.
Wheeler has been phenomenal in the first inning with a 6-0 NRFI record and has allowed just one hit across those six starts.
MacKenzie Gore, Filthy 90mph Back Foot Cutter. ✂️ pic.twitter.com/llPcnunBUd
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 19, 2025
Gore has been great, too, with a 5-1 NRFI mark and four straight scoreless first frames. He also dominated this Phillies lineup on Opening Day to the tune of 13 strikeouts over six innings while allowing just one hit.
Both offenses have a 70 percent NRFI rate over their last ten games, but we are mainly banking on the pitchers here, even though both teams have some formidable hitters who will come to the plate in the first inning.
This is my favorite of the NRFI bets today as we have a matchup of the top two pitchers on the slate in terms of their overall metrics as well as their elite performance in the first inning.
Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros NRFI (-140 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- DET: Reese Olson
- HOU: Ryan Gusto
The books are starting to catch on to Houston's early inning struggles as the price on this bet reflects that. However, I still think the price is fairly reasonable considering the pitching matchup and the recent trends for both offenses.
Houston's 86 percent NRFI rate on the year can't be ignored, and they have scored just once in their last 10 first innings. Detroit has a much more respectable 69 percent NRFI rate; however, they've scored just twice in the first inning over their previous ten games.
Tigers' righty Reese Olson has a 3-2 NRFI record entering today, but has three straight first-inning shutouts and has been pitching well lately.
For Houston, Ryan Gusto has made the transition from the bullpen to the rotation rather seamlessly. He's sporting an impressive 3.06 SIERA with a 25.6 K percentage and is coming off a powerful start against Toronto. He hasn't allowed a baserunner in his last two starts.
The breakout continues for Ryan Gusto! pic.twitter.com/JqODsZx1Wr
— Pitch Profiler (@pitchprofiler) April 24, 2025
Relying on young pitchers can be nerve-wracking, but we need six outs here to pick up the win. I think both youngsters can get it done and work clean in the first frames.
San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres NRFI (-145 BetMGM Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- SFG: Logan Webb
- SDP: Nick Pivetta
Other than the Wheeler-Gore matchup, this has to be the other potential pitcher's duel of the night in MLB. Logan Webb has an ERA of 1.98 and has been striking out hitters at a 30.8 percent rate so far in 2025, while Nick Pivetta has enjoyed a terrific start to his tenure in San Diego with a 1.20 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, and a 4-1 record.
Pivetta is a perfect 5-0 on NRFIs so far, allowing no more than one baserunner in the first inning per game. He has the easier matchup of the two hurlers as the Giants are the weaker of the two offenses and have the better NRFI rate at 72 percent.
If you remove Nick Pivetta's start on a frigid day in Chicago against the Cubs (3 IP, 3 ER) -- here are the totals from Pivetta's other four starts with the Padres:
0.33 ERA
27 IP
1 R
10 H
26 K
4 BBSimply outstanding. pic.twitter.com/TpGohbzCsS
— Sammy Levitt (@SammyLev) April 23, 2025
Webb has a 4-2 mark this year and has to face one of the hottest hitters in MLB right now, Fernando Tatis Jr. However, one trend that may work in his favor is that the Padres have cooled off on offense considerably as of late. They are 8-2 on NRFIs over their last 10, and other than Tatis, they've been slumping at the plate.
This should be a great game, but the advantage goes to the pitchers. I'm banking on both veteran righties to continue their strong starts and first-inning success to get us the final win of the night.
Notable NRFI/YRFI MLB Trends: Last 10 Games
- Longest NRFI Streak: Tampa Bay Rays (10-0)
- Best YRFI hit rate: Red Sox, Pirates, Mariners, Dodgers (4-6)
- Most First Inning Home Runs: Pirates, Mariners (6)
- Best First Inning Batting Average: Twins (.400)
I hope you enjoyed my NRFI picks. Good luck with your bets, and remember to bet responsibly!
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