Running Back Best-Ball Tiered Rankings and Analysis Part 2

June 7, 2021

More running back rankings analysis for 2021 best ball drafts. Phil Clark breaks down RBs in middle tiers and beyond to find the best values relative to ADP for best ball leagues.

Each transformation of the fantasy landscape has compelled managers to expand their involvement in best-ball drafts, and this process has accelerated as we progress through the offseason.

The unwavering popularity of this format remains intact for multiple reasons. That includes the opportunity to complete all forms of roster management at the conclusion of each draft. However, that also makes it critical for you to assemble a team that can remain productive throughout the season without having the option of using a waiver wire.

That is why the team at RotoBaller delivers a non-stop arsenal of news, analysis, and tiered rankings to help you capture your best-ball leagues. We also provide breakdowns of our rankings after each update - including my two-part series that will examine the critical running back position. This article will focus on Tiers 4-9, and you can find the breakdown of Tiers 1-3 here.

RB Best-Ball Rankings

Tier 4

David Montgomery, Chris Carson, Josh Jacobs, Travis Etienne, James Robinson, Kareem Hunt

Montgomery was seventh among all backs in rushing attempts (131/14.6 per game) from Weeks 1-9. But he was also 12th in rushing yardage (472/52.4 per game) while averaging just 3.6 yards per attempt during those contests. However, his late-season statistical surge elevated him to second in carries (116/19.3 per game) and third in yardage (598/99.7 per game) from Weeks 12-17, while his yards-per-carry average rose to 5.2.

He capitalized on favorable matchups during that sequence, which supplies confidence that he will take advantage of overmatched defensive units again this season. However, his opportunity share should decline, due to the arrival of Damien Williams, and the return of Tarik Cohen.

Carson has finished at RB15 or better in point per game scoring during each of his last three seasons while averaging 16.2 carries/74.7 yards per game during that span. He also finished fifth in rushing yardage during both 2018 (1,151/82.2 per game), and 2019 (1,230/82.0 per game)., and was RB12 in scoring (14.5 points per game) last season (Weeks 12-16) after returning from a foot injury.

.@ccarson_32 just ran through half of the Minnesota defense ?#GoHawks x #TouchdownTuesday pic.twitter.com/QUX9D0Eehb

— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) March 30, 2021

Carson has missed 19 games in four years, but 12 of those occurred during his 2017 rookie season. He has consistently demonstrated his ability to operate effectively as Seattle's lead back and remains primed to function in that role once again.

Jacobs has accumulated 515 attempts during his first two seasons while generating 2,215 yards and 19 touchdowns on the ground. That includes his usage and production during 2020 when Jacobs led all backs in red zone attempts (65). He also finished third in rushing attempts (273/18.2 per game), eighth in yardage (1,065/71 per game), and fourth in touchdowns (12). However, he manufactured just 3.9 yards per attempt and finished 24th among all backs with 45 targets (3.0 per game). He will operate behind an offensive line that was systematically stripped of talent, and his workload has been threatened by the arrival of Kenyan Drake. This supplies your incentive to avoid drafting Jacobs as anything beyond a low-end RB2.

Jacksonville’s selection of Etienne in Round 1 during the recent NFL Draft should accelerate his progress toward a sizable role in the Jaguars’ restructured attack, even though he does not have a clear path to immediate lead back duties. Etienne assembled 6,107 yards from scrimmage during his career with Clemson. That includes 3,272 rushing yards in 2018-2019 when he averaged 7.95 yards per attempt.

#Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence made reference to this play against Ohio State in 2019 when asked about his favorite play made by RB Travis Etienne: pic.twitter.com/PgGjMNyGT5

— Demetrius Harvey (@Demetrius82) May 1, 2021

He also accrued 1,020 receiving yards on 85 receptions during his final two seasons, which elevated his potential to function as an every-down back. That will not occur initially, as Robinson and Etienne appear destined to share touches. However, Etienne’s game-breaking ability will persuade Urban Meyer to expand his workload as the year progresses.

Robinson did not entice NFL teams to select him during the 2020 draft, nor did he originally capture the attention from managers that had been reserved for other members of his rookie class. But he finished sixth overall in both rushing attempts (240/17.1 per game) and rushing yardage (1,070/76.4 per game), and was third in yards after contact (615). However, his accomplishments failed to deter Jacksonville from investing the 25th overall selection on Etienne. Robinson should maintain a respectable role early in the season. But Etienne should confiscate an increasing percentage of touches during the year. This ensures that Robinson will fail to match the level of usage that he experienced in 2020.

Chubb’s exceptional talent will sustain his status as Cleveland’s primary back. But Hunt presents managers with a viable RB2 while providing the potential for RB1 output if Chubb is absent during the season. This pathway to expanded usage developed from Weeks 5-8 as Chubb was sidelined by injury (MCL). Hunt finished fourth in attempts during that sequence (65/16.3 per game) and was also eighth in yardage (254/63.5 per game). Hunt only averaged 3.2 targets per game last season, after finishing eighth among all backs with an average of 5.5 in 2019. But he remains a reliable option after your draft has entered Round 5.

Tier 5

Myles Gaskin, Melvin Gordon, Chase Edmonds, A.J. Dillon, Raheem Mostert, Kenyan Drake, Leonard Fournette

Gaskin soared into relevance from Weeks 3-8 by rising to 11th overall in attempts (84/16.8 per game), and 18th in rushing yardage (301/60.2 per game) during that sequence. He only played in three more contests during the season (knee/COVID-19), but still led the Dolphins in attempts (142/14.2 per game) and yardage (584/58.4 per game).

Myles Gaskin goes 59 yards to the ?! @MylesGAS

The @MiamiDolphins take a 23-22 lead with 2:55 remaining. #FinsUp

?: #MIAvsLV on @NFLNetwork
?: NFL app // Yahoo Sports app: https://t.co/Gd3pMdskDl pic.twitter.com/rxOKjCd27Z

— NFL (@NFL) December 27, 2020

It was logical to expect that Miami would add another runner who would challenge Gaskin's status as the team's primary back. However, Gaskin has emerged following free agency and the NFL Draft with only Malcolm Brown and Salvon Ahmed below him on the Dolphins' depth chart. This has restored his viability as an RB2 candidate during your draft process.

Gordon’s first season with Denver was largely successful for the 28-year-old and for the managers who selected him during Round 4 of 2020 best ball drafts. He finished ninth in both rushing attempts (215/14.3 per game) and rushing yardage (986/65.7 per game) and also tied for 11th in touchdowns (9). However, Gordon now enters the final year of his contract with talented newcomer Javonte Williams looming as a legitimate threat to overtake him as Denver’s RB1.

Edmonds has emerged as one of the biggest beneficiaries during the free agency process, due to the departure of Kenyan Drake. This leaves him essentially unchallenged toward maintaining last season’s role as Arizona’s primary receiving back.

Edmonds confiscated those responsibilities during 2020 while finishing fourth among backs in targets (51/4.6 per game), fourth in receptions (41/3.7 per game), and fifth in receiving yards (317/28.8 per game) from Weeks 4-15. Edmonds will share touches with former Steeler James Conner, although Conner’s role should largely be restricted to early-down usage.

The potential for Aaron Jones to resurface in a different environment had fueled a steady rise in Dillon’s ADP prior to free agency. But that momentum was quelled when Jones signed his multi-year contract in March. However, Jamaal Williams’ relocation in Detroit has elevated Dillon directly below Jones on the Packers’ depth chart. Dillon only attained a 13.5% snap share, while averaging 4.2 carries and 22 yards per game in 2020. But his involvement should increase during his second season, as he operates in a rotation with the exceptional Jones.

It originally appeared that Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. would enter the final seasons of their contracts as the primary components in San Francisco’s rushing attack. But Wilson's knee surgery (meniscus) will force his extended absence, while the 49ers have added multiple backs to their burgeoning collection of options. San Francisco traded up to seize Trey Sermon in Round 3 of the NFL Draft, then selected Elijah Mitchell in Round 6. San Francisco also signed Wayne Gallman Jr. in April. But the investment in Sermon provides an indication that Mostert’s workload will be constrained as he shares touches with the promising rookie.

Drake finished seventh among all backs in rushing attempts during 2020 (239/15.9 per game), was 12th in rushing yardage (955/63.7 per game), and achieved career-highs in each category. But the Raiders’ decision to secure Drake with an $11 million contract will inhibit the rushing output for both Drake and Jacobs while resulting in frequent disappointment for managers. Drake’s usage as a receiver should rise after he averaged just 2.1 just targets per game with Arizona last season. But he is unlikely to deliver high-quality production unless Jacobs is absent from the lineup.

Fournette averaged an uninspiring 7.5 attempts, 28.2 rushing yards, 3.6 targets, and 17.9 receiving yards per game from Weeks 1-17. But those averages expanded to 16 attempts, 75 rushing yards, 5.3 targets, and 37 receiving yards per game during the postseason. Fournette’s snap share also rose substantially during the playoffs (74.4), and his effectiveness incentivized the Buccaneers to re-sign him. However, the presence of Jones will prevent Fournette from surpassing the expectations of his Round 8 ADP.

Tier 6

Damien Harris, Ronald Jones II, Javonte Williams, Mike Davis, James Conner, David Johnson, Michael Carter, Rashaad Penny

Harris confiscated New England’s RB1 responsibilities during 2020, and was fifth among all backs in rushing yardage 471/78.5 per game) from Weeks 4-10. He remained sixth overall entering Week 16 (691/69.1 per game) before being sidelined during the Patriots' final two matchups (ankle).

Damien Harris with a Touchdown ?pic.twitter.com/UFQjX9beDy

— Alabama Diehards (@AlabamaDieHards) November 1, 2020

New England selected Rhamondre Stevenson during Round 4 of the recent NFL Draft, and the rookie could conceivably carve out a role within the Patriots' backfield rotation. However, his presence is more problematic to Sony Michel than it is to Harris.

Jones nearly delivered his first 1,000-yard season (978/69.9 per game), while being allotted a career-high 192 attempts (13.7 per game). He also eclipsed 100 yards in four different matchups, after only accomplishing it once during 2018 and 2019 combined. Jones attained a 48.6 snap share from Weeks 1-17, although that percentage dropped considerably during the postseason (28.5). Fournette’s proficiency throughout the playoffs negatively impacted Jones’s workload, and that will continue with both backs splitting touches. Jones only exceeded four targets in two matchups, and his limited involvement and productivity as a pass-catcher (3.0 targets/2.0 receptions/11.8 yards per game) will reduce his statistical ceiling.

Williams accrued 2,554 total yards and 28 touchdowns during his final two seasons at North Carolina, including 1,445 yards and 22 touchdowns during 2020.

A three touchdown day for Javonte Williams!@TarHeelFootball | #ACCFootball pic.twitter.com/IUEqAuU6hM

— ACC Football (@ACCFootball) October 24, 2020

He possesses an enticing blend of power and explosiveness, and these attributes should propel him to a favorable workload during his first season. Gordon will still share opportunities with Williams in Denver’s backfield rotation. But the newcomer is fully capable of commandeering the largest percentage of touches before the season reaches its conclusion.

Davis joins the Falcons after assembling career-best numbers as both a rusher and receiver in 2020. He had averaged 5.3 carries and 18.9 yards per game from 2015-2019, while also collecting an average of 1.8 targets per game during that span.

But multiple health issues limited Christian McCaffrey to just three matchups, while propelling Davis into Carolina’s lead back responsibilities. His averages rose to 11 attempts, 42.8 yards, and 4.7 targets per game, as Davis soared to RB12 for the season. He now appears primed to function as the primary back for Atlanta.

A collection of injuries has sidelined Conner for 14 games since 2017. He did finish 11th in both rushing attempts (215/16.5 per game), and rushing yardage (973/74.8 per game) during 2018, while also generating career highs in targets (71/5.5 per game), receptions (55/4.2 per game), and receiving yards (497/38.2 per game). But those per-game averages have universally declined since 2019 (12.4 attempts/51.5 rushing yards/3.5 targets/34.5 receptions/20.3 receiving yards). Pittsburgh eschewed the chance to retain him, and Connor ultimately signed a one-year contract with Arizona. He should accumulate carries as an early-down back but will operate in a rotation with Edmonds.

Johnson was sidelined during four matchups (concussion/COVID-19) but still finished at RB16 in point per game scoring. He also rushed for a career-high 4.7 yards per attempt and appeared capable of functioning as an RB3 for managers this season. But the infusion of Phillip Lindsay, Mark Ingram II, and Rex Burkhead has created an overcrowded backfield. Johnson will not approach last season’s 74.5% snap share, and the impending committee should compel managers to avoid him at his Round 10 ADP.

The 5’8”, 200-pound Carter generated 2,669 yards and 16 touchdowns from scrimmage during his final two seasons at North Carolina, while operating in a rotation with (Javonte) Williams. He also became the recipient of an exceptional landing spot when the Jets secured him in Round 4. That will inject him into a depth chart that contains an unimposing group of backs – Tevin Coleman, La’Mical Perine, and Ty Johnson. This presents Carter with an opportunity to quickly confiscate a significant role in the Jets' backfield rotation.

Penny has failed to justify Seattle’s decision to select  him with the 27th overall pick in 2018, as his career has contained an overabundance of disappointment. Penny accrued 419 yards (29.9 per game) on 85 attempts (6.1 per game) as a rookie. However, that was his most productive season. He has only received 84 touches and manufactured 487 total yards during his last two seasons while being sidelined for a total of 19 matchups during that span. The 2021 regular season provides Penny with one more opportunity to validate his draft pedigree while operating as Carson’s backup.

Tier 7

Gus Edwards, Trey Sermon, Devin Singletary, Nyheim Hines, Tony Pollard, Zack Moss,  Jamaal Williams

Even though Dobbins’ current ADP (28) places him at RB17, he will be operating in a backfield rotation with Edwards. Both backs split 305 touches during 2020 (Edwards 153/Dobbins 152), and Ingram’s departure will keep Edwards' usage at a consistent level.

That's a @bigten Championship Game record for @OhioStateFB RB @treyera ?

He breaks the conference record for rushing yards in a Championship Game set by @EzekielElliott in 2014 pic.twitter.com/XEB9nym6p3

— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) December 19, 2020

Sermon has now been presented with a chance to make a sizable impact during his rookie season while seizing a consistent role in San Francisco’s backfield. He should share the majority of carries with Mostert and his ability as a one-cut runner could propel him to substantial yardage in Kyle Shanahan's outside zone rushing scheme.

After averaging 12.6 attempts and 64.6 yards per game as a rookie, Singletary’s per-game averages declined in 2020 (9.8 attempts/42.9 yards). He did lead Buffalo’s backfield in targets, receptions, and receiving yardage, although those numbers were uninspiring (3.1 targets, 2.4 receptions, 16.8 yards per game). He will split touches with Zack Moss, which will place restrictions on the output of both backs.

Hines’ 76 targets (4.8 per game) placed him third among all backs last season, while he was also third in both receptions (63/3.9 per game) and receiving yards (482/30.1 per game). He should explode for significant yardage as a pass-catcher in several games during the season. But those outings will be infused with multiple weeks of minimal production.

Pollard finished at RB20 in (PPR) scoring from Weeks 8-15, due to a mixture of his talent, and the increased usage that he received during that span. The degree to which he looms as a threat to Elliott’s workload can be debated. But his ability to amass yardage whenever he enters the field elevates him among the most enticing options in Round 9 of your drafts.

Moss established season highs in attempts (14), rushing yards (81) in Week 8. But he only averaged 8.6 carries and 36.9 yards per game from Weeks 9-17, while his 45.9% snap share was exceeded by Singletary’s (48.9%). The production-inhibiting touch distribution between both backs could create disappointment for anyone who targets Moss before his Round 9 ADP (98/RB35).

38 backs are being selected before Williams, even though he will be sharing touches with D'Andre Swift in a consistent weekly role. He can function as a valuable resource for fantasy managers and would receive an extensive workload if Swift is sidelined for any reason.

Tiers 8-9

Jeff Wilson Jr., Kenny Gainwell, Latavius Murray, Marlon Mack, James White, J.D. McKissic, Chuba Hubbard, Alexander Mattison, Tarik Cohen, Sony Michel, Darrell Henderson, Giovani Bernard, Damien Williams, Le'Veon Bell, Phillip Lindsay, Darrynton Evans, Kylin Hill

The 17 backs that are contained in tiers 8-9 are currently located from RB47 to RB63 in our rankings. The outlook for any of these players would improve if pathways to expanded workloads emerge during the offseason.

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