RADIO
It is now Week 13, and that means many of you are entering the magical season we call “the fantasy playoffs.” If you and your league mates fear the dreaded curse of the 'Week 17 Sit Fest' and you prefer each playoff round being two weeks to prevent flukes, then you have to start things up in Week 13. The prospect of starting your playoffs in Week 13 is pretty perilous in 2020, however.
Week 13 isn't just the first and most likely week to see a real impact from team infestation of COVID (our current concern thanks entirely to the Ravens' outbreak), but it is also a time when SEVERAL key fantasy defenders are on bye. That's right, in their infinite knowledge and adept planning, the NFL has designated both the Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers for a bye week in the waning hours of Week 13. That may spell an excellent time to rest for the aging Tom Brady, but it's a troubling time for those beginning their playoff push behind the good work of players like Devin White, Lavonte David, Jeremy Chinn, Jason Pierre-Paul, and Carlton Davis. Each of those players is a fantasy starter in most formats, and all of them are unavailable for people beginning their playoffs or fighting for the last seed this week.
Because of the inconvenient and impactful byes in Week 13, we must keep a more careful eye on your IDP waivers than ever. A number of you will be missing reliable starters to this Week 13 bye, and many of you cannot afford to stash those players on your bench. With that in mind, our usual IDP Waiver column will be expanding this week. Below you will find our typical recommendations for who to add off of the waiver wire, but you’ll also see what defenders you can drop as well. With that, hopefully, you can make better and more informed last-minute decisions at a very important time for your team.
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IDP Settings
If you skipped my weekly rant, as many of you do, then you made a wise choice! You skipped the ramblings of a madman and now get to drink the nectars of his sweet, sweet brain! And you’ll likely notice that those nectars taste an awful lot like our waiver rankings for this week!
As a reminder, we will use the following IDP designations/league settings for our FAAB recommendations:
- Standard Scoring Leagues: This system usually rewards 1-point per tackle, 3-points per sack, 4-points per turnover, and sometimes offers 2-points for a tackle for loss (TFL) or pass deflection (PD). Standard leagues also usually only start one DL, LB, and DB, respectively. You will always prioritize your FAAB budget towards offensive players in Standard Scoring IDP leagues, though you shouldn't underestimate the value of adding a great defender in them.
- Defense Premium Leagues: Defense Premium leagues tend to try to make defensive players worth as much as offensive players. Commissioners often accomplish this by rewarding 2-points per tackle, 3-points for TFL or PDs, 4-points per sack, and 6-points per turnover. In these leagues, you don't necessarily prioritize offensive players on waivers. While it is a case-by-case analysis, defenders in these leagues can often be worth as much as most offensive waiver additions.
- Deep Defense Leagues: These are leagues that have you start a full defense, or require you to start CBs and DTs, or they are leagues so deep (think 16 team leagues) that at least 32 players at each position (DL, LB, and DB) start every week.
- Dynasty Leagues: This is self-explanatory to most. Dynasty leagues are those in which every player you draft/add is on your team until you trade or release him.
Now that we have that explanation out of the way, let's get to this week's top adds! Remember that we will only address defenders who are rostered in less than 30% of IDP leagues on ESPN, Yahoo, or other prominent sites. We will also do our best to avoid obvious additions. While players like Myles Garrett are somehow rostered in only 31% of ESPN IDP leagues, we assume that anyone reading this material knows to add Garrett if they can.
IDP Waiver Adds of the Week
1. Kamren Curl, DB, Washington Football Team
Curl has been all over our IDP columns for three weeks now, and he has put up starter quality fantasy numbers in every contest in which he has gotten more than 70% of his team’s snaps. Look for him to continue to provide you with a high floor and an attractive ceiling.
The rookie is a top-12 fantasy DB moving forward with a favorable fantasy playoff schedule. That makes him the ideal addition for those who have to drop their current fantasy DB (Antoine Winfield Jr. or Carlton Davis) or fill the position due to injury. Curl can take over for your guys on bye and likely improve on their production, with the exception of Jeremy Chinn. The Arkansas product should be rostered in more than 9% of IDP leagues.
- Standard FAAB: 2%
- Defense Premium FAAB: 3%
- Deep Defense FAAB: 4%
- Dynasty FAAB: 2%
2. Trey Hendrickson, DL, New Orleans Saints
Hendrickson is still rostered in less than 3% of IDP leagues, so he makes this list again. While he gave you a stinker this past week, the guy already has 9.5 sacks this season. His next three games are favorable fantasy matchups, too.
Hendrickson merits adding in all formats and is a prime target for those who absolutely HAVE to drop Jason Pierre-Paul or Shaq Barrett because of the bye this week. I wouldn't recommend dumping JPP for Hendrickson, but if you have to drop one of your Bucs pass rushers and add a guy off waivers, Hendrickson is one of the better options out there in most leagues.
- Standard FAAB: 1%
- Defense Premium FAAB: 1%
- Deep Defense FAAB: 1%
- Dynasty FAAB: 1%
3. Emmanuel Ogbah, DL, Miami Dolphins
Despite having eight sacks this year, Ogbah is rostered in less than 17% of IDP leagues. He makes for a solid add for those who need a fantasy playoff contributor and a bye week fill-in, too.
Three of Ogbah’s next four matchups are against teams in the bottom half of the NFL in sacks allowed, meaning those three teams have allowed more sacks than the NFL average this year. Prioritize him behind Hendrickson, though.
- Standard FAAB: Wait
- Defense Premium FAAB: 2%
- Deep Defense FAAB: 2%
- Dynasty FAAB: Wait
4. Danny Trevathan, LB, Chicago Bears
Trevathan has been a solid LB3 for many years, including this one. However, despite his consistent tackle floor, Trevathan is rostered in less than 10% of leagues. That’s too low.
The former Bronco is a worthy fill-in for players like Devin White and Lavonte David this week, and he can contribute the rest of the year if you have a hole at the LB position. He isn't the ideal pick up in Defense Premium scoring or dynasty, though, because he doesn't get many turnovers and is already in his 30's. However, he serves as a worthy addition in Deep Defense leagues and for those suffering the Week 13 bye.
- Standard FAAB: Wait
- Defense Premium FAAB: 1%
- Deep Defense FAAB: 1%
5. Ja'Whaun Bentley, LB, New England Patriots
Rostered in only 7% of leagues, Bentley has laid a concrete fantasy floor for himself this year. He has only one game this year with less than five tackles, and he has two games with double-digit tackles. Caution that you should never drop Devin White in any league, and Bentley isn't an adequate replacement for White or Shaq Thompson the rest of this season. Bentley is a viable bye-week fill-in if your LB waiver wire is thin and your starter is out in Week 13, though.
- Standard FAAB: Wait
- Defense Premium FAAB: Wait
- Deep Defense FAAB: Wait
6. Shaquill Griffin, DB, Seattle Seahawks
Griffin is an underrated fantasy CB whose value has been hampered mostly by injury this year. He looks to be back and healthy, so he should serve as an acceptable bye week replacement for a corner like Carlton Davis.
Griffin plays against two turnover prone and inefficient offenses the next two weeks, giving you a decent chance for a turnover or other big plays. He is a viable Week 13 fill-in if you play in Deep Defense or Defense Premium formats, and he should be on rosters in more than the 10% of IDP leagues.
- Standard Defense FAAB: Wait
- Deep Defense FAAB: 2%
- Defense Premium FAAB: 2%
7. Darnell Savage Jr., DB, Green Bay Packers
A former first-round pick, Savage has been relatively consistent in the tackle department this year. In over half of Savage's games he has made at least five tackles, and in half of his games he has at least one PD. Savage also plays turnover-prone quarterbacks over the next two weeks, making him a fine fill-in option for Carlton Davis or Jeremy Chinn. Savage isn't a full-time starter in your Standard IDP leagues, but he merits consideration as a bye week sub or as a starter in deeper formats.
- Standard FAAB: Wait
- Defense Premium FAAB: 1%
- Deep Defense FAAB: 1%
- Dynasty FAAB: Wait
8. Tarvarius Moore, DB, San Francisco 49ers
Moore is a talented safety who has seen serious snaps since Jaquiski Tartt went down with injury. While Moore's production has been inconsistent this year, he has the talent to be a real weapon for this defense. Despite having limited snaps, he already has two turnovers and has totaled six tackles in two of his three starts this year. He also intercepted Patrick Mahomes in the Super Bowl, for whatever that’s worth.
Moore shouldn’t be rostered in anything but very Deep Defense leagues, but expect the 49ers to use the guy all over the field the rest of this season. Tartt will be a free agent this summer, and the 49ers have an incentive to see whether Moore can serve as a cheap replacement. Keep an eye on him in deeper leagues, as he could qualify as a DB3 or better during your fantasy playoffs.
- Deep Defense FAAB: 1%
Defenders You Can Drop This Week
1. Pierre Desir, DB, No Team:
Desir is rostered in 10% of IDP leagues, and yet he is rostered in 0% of NFL leagues. He has no team, and so he should have no fantasy team. It’s pretty simple.
2. Sam Hubbard, DE, Cincinnati Bengals:
Hubbard is rostered in far more IDP leagues than superior performers such as Leonard Floyd, Montez Sweat, Fletcher Cox, and Aldon Smith. To reward this sort of loyalty, Hubbard has produced just one sack all season, and he has only two games with more than four tackles. He has also failed to produce a single turnover this season. You cannot count on him in your playoffs, and there’s no way he should be rostered in more leagues than Floyd or Sweat
3. Cory Littleton, LB, Las Vegas Raiders:
We told you to drop Littleton in our first Players to Drop list, and a lot of you didn't listen. The former Ram is still rostered in more than 20% of IDP leagues, despite the fact he hasn't registered a sack, turnover, or double-digit tackle game all season. He has a shallow ceiling, especially at the deep LB position, and he shouldn't be rostered in more leagues than Neville Hewitt or Dre Greenlaw.
4. Tracy Walker, DB, Detroit Lions:
After Walker spent a lot of time in the top-ten of our ranks, his playing time has cratered. That’s why we warned you to fade him last week.
While Walker’s playing time could rebound with a new head coach, we don't know what to expect. All we know is the past three weeks, he has seen his role in Detroit's defense downgraded, and he has averaged less than two tackles per game as a result. Do you want to bet your fantasy championship on Walker suddenly seeing an increased workload in Detroit?
5. Avery Williamson, LB, Pittsburgh Steelers:
We warned you against counting on Williamson as a Steeler, and those warnings have proven omniscient. He has failed to crack 20% of the team's snaps in two games as a Steeler. His skill set doesn't bode well given Pittsburgh's usual game script, and he is fighting with two interior linebackers who this team seems to trust. You cannot count on him ascending suddenly during your fantasy playoffs.
6. Grady Jarrett, DL, Atlanta Falcons:
This one could cause controversy since Jarrett is regularly ranked in the top-20 of many DL ranks each week. He is also a solid starter at DT, and so you should hang onto him if you play in Deep Defense leagues that require you to start a DT on your roster.
That said, Jarrett hasn't put up stats worthy of being a fantasy starter in most IDP formats. He has only three sacks, one turnover, and only one game with more than five tackles. He has a low ceiling and floor in leagues that start two or fewer defensive linemen per team and don't require you to start a DT. Jarrett should not be rostered in more leagues than Brandon Graham, Cameron Jordan, or Chase Young… but he is. You can drop him if any of those players are available.
7. Deforest Buckner, DL, Indianapolis Colts:
Buckner is a personal favorite of mine and has been since his time at Oregon. This year he has been a better real-football player than he has a fantasy contributor, though.
While Buckner is still a worthwhile play in leagues requiring you start a DT, he mirrors Jarrett's low fantasy ceiling in most shallow formats. He has only two turnovers, two sacks, one PD, and two games with more than five tackles. He is rostered in more IDP leagues than Brandon Graham, Ogbah, Aldon Smith, and others with a higher ceiling. Buckner can be cut in standard leagues if you have a higher impact player on waivers you want to add.
8. Shaq Thompson, LB, Carolina Panthers:
This one requires a caveat because I am in no way saying you should drop Thompson in deeper leagues or in leagues where you can stash him during the bye. However, those who play in a shallow IDP league (which is most IDP players) can likely drop the Panthers' leader and add an effective fantasy LB off waivers who has already had his bye week. Tyrell Adams, Christian Kirksey, Patrick Queen, Eric Wilson, and Jerome Baker are all rostered in fewer leagues than Thompson. Each of them has an equal or higher fantasy value to Thompson in your playoffs.
9. Kyle Van Noy, DL/LB, Miami Dolphins:
Just like Thompson above, I am not telling you to drop Van Noy outright. I am telling you that many of you may be able to improve your DL position over him, depending on your format.
Over his past four games, Van Noy has just a half-sack, no turnovers, and zero games with more than five tackles. That and a tricky playoff schedule (two favorable and two unfavorable matchups) make Van Noy a droppable asset in Defense Premium and shallow IDP leagues.
Know your league’s format and who is available on waivers before you drop Van Noy, but know you may be able to improve over him if you need quality production from your DL position in the playoffs. The BYU product is rostered in more leagues than Chase Young, Joey Bosa, Brian Burns, and Bud Dupree, and each of those guys provide a higher fantasy ceiling in sack premium formats.
10. Antoine Winfield Jr., DB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
Winfield is another personal favorite of mine who I loved scouting for the NFL Draft. He is also going into a bye this week and has had the typical inconsistency and struggles you would expect from a rookie DB.
If you are in a shallow IDP league and cannot afford to stash Winfield Jr. for his bye, you can feel comfortable dropping him. He is rostered in far more leagues than Kamren Curl, Adrian Phillips, and Kyle Dugger, and each of those players provides a sufficient replacement for Winfield's production.
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