Top Risers, Fallers - ADP Movement and Analysis

As we approach the final stretch of fantasy football drafts before the start of the season, average draft positions (ADPs) are changing on a daily basis. My job is to make sure you are up to date and not reaching on certain players, so I have tracked all of the significant risers and fallers since exactly one week ago.

Here is a position-by-position breakdown of the top movers in terms of draft position just before the season begins.

All ADP data is taken from Fantasy Football Calculator.

Running Backs

Risers

More Risers: Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey, Jordan Howard, Chris Carson, Kenyan Drake, Lamar Miller, and Royce Freeman

Peterson saw the biggest jump after a strong preseason debut. Despite being 33-years-old, Peterson is expected to handle the bulk of the carries for Washington. Bilal Powell saw significant reps with the starting 11 for the Jets in the team’s third preseason game and scored a touchdown in the process.

Powell will likely work behind Isaiah Crowell, but should see enough of a workload to keep him fantasy-relevant, particularly in PPR formats. Williams will start for the Packers in the team’s first two matchups of the season, while Aaron Jones serves a two-game suspension.

Williams could put a stranglehold on the starting job if he performs well, thus making him an appealing RB3 with RB1 upside. Peyton Barber will start for the Buccaneers after winning the job over rookie running back Ronald Jones, who struggled throughout camp and the preseason. Lastly, Carlos Hyde will start 2018 as the lead back for the Browns, with Duke Johnson handling third-down duties. Hyde ran well in the preseason and separated himself from Nick Chubb.

Fallers

More Fallers: LeSean McCoy, Jay Ajayi, Duke Johnson, Tarik Cohen, Kerryon Johnson, Rashaad Penny, Marlon Mack, Giovani Bernard, and Chris Thompson.

Jones’ nightmare preseason caused him to drop nearly three rounds in one week, and much more than that if we look back to a month ago when he was being selected in the fifth round. With Peterson in Washington, both Perine and Kelley’s draft value when plummeting down.

Breida continues to work his way back from a shoulder injury, but should be ready for Week 1. The addition of Alfred Morris in San Francisco makes the backfield situation a little more uncertain. Ty Montgomery will likely remain the team’s pass-catching back, but he could see limited rushing opportunities with Williams and Jones in the picture.

Nick Chubb sits third on the depth chart for the Browns, but he could contribute down the stretch if Hyde struggles to remain healthy.

Wide Receivers

Risers

More Risers: Brandin Cooks, Chris Hogan, Corey Davis, Jamison Crowder, Robby Anderson, Nelson Agholor, Devin Funchess, Robert Woods, Tyreek Hill, Sterling Shepard, Mike Williams, and Dede Westbrook.

Cole climbed up over 40 spots after the season-ending injury news to Marqise Lee. Cole should step in as the top receiver for the Jaguars after thriving during the fantasy playoffs last season. Godwin had an impressive preseason and will likely be the team’s number two receiver behind Mike Evans.

Sanders has shown a strong connection with quarterback Case Keenum, and could very well lead the team in receiving this year. Sanders is still being drafted after Demaryius Thomas, but his ADP did spike a full round in just one week. After having a strong camp, Brown will lineup opposite Michael Crabtree in Baltimore. He could re-establish himself as one of the top deep threats in the game with Flacco’s unbelievable arm strength.

Kenny Stills appears to be the top receiver for Miami heading into 2018. Devante Parker could have something to say about that once he is fully healthy, but then again he has failed to live up to the hype throughout his NFL career.

Fallers

More Fallers: Sammy Watkins, Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson, Tyler Lockett, D.J. Moore, Doug Baldwin, Demaryius Thomas, Allen Robinson, Michael Crabtree, Pierre Garcon, and Will Fuller.

I didn’t include Marqise Lee on this list because he was too obvious and should be completely off everyone’s board since he is done for the year. Parker had a disappointing camp and isn’t fully healthy to start the season.

Benjamin dropped 11 spots despite remaining the top receiver for the Bills, basically by default. The emergence of rookie Michael Gallup in the preseason opened up a lot of eyes, thus resulting in Hurns’ declining ADP.

Meredith struggled throughout the preseason even though he did score in the team’s final preseason matchup. He was outplayed by rookie Tre'Quan Smith and could be anywhere from the WR2 to the WR4, we’ll find out soon enough. Jeffery will sit out at least two weeks, and possibly longer as he recovers from a shoulder injury.

Quarterbacks and Tight Ends

Since there is far less ADP movement for these two positions I won’t bother with the tables. Instead, I’ll break down the top riser and faller for both positions.

QB – Top Riser

Patrick Mahomes +8.2

It took some time but people are finally jumping on the Mahomes train. He should produce top 10 numbers with Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, and Travis Kelce at his disposal. He steps in for Alex Smith, who mastered the Kansas City offense and produced top-five numbers last season. Mahomes displayed his impressive arm strength in the preseason and has some added value due to his rushing ability.

QB – Top Faller

Deshaun Watson -2.6

Watson’s ADP is starting to slowly come down, but it still is a steep price to pay for any quarterback given the extremely rich class of 2018. His upside is through the roof and he has the rushing ability to rack up points in a hurry. However, his limited sample size is a legitimate reason of concern for fantasy owners.

More Risers: Marcus Mariota, Derek Carr, Jameis Winston, Ben Roethlisberger, and Kirk Cousins

More Fallers: Carson Wentz, Andrew Luck, Eli Manning, and Tyrod Taylor

TE – Top Riser

Trey Burton +13.2

The injury to Adam Shaheen takes away any worries fantasy owners might have had about the two sharing targets. Burton showed flashes of brilliance in Philadelphia last year and now has the chance to be the featured tight end on a Chicago team with some question marks at the wide receiver position. Burton is still unproven for the most part, but offers huge upside to anyone who selects him on draft day.

TE – Top Faller

George Kittle -7.3

Kittle suffered a shoulder injury in Week 1 of the preseason, which caused his value to drop. However, the second-year tight end is expected to be in the lineup for Week 1 after returning to practice on a limited basis this week. Kittle is an underrated receiver and has a good chance at outperforming his falling ADP.

More Risers: Zach Ertz, David Njoku, and Jordan Reed

More Fallers: Delanie Walker, Kyle Rudolph, Evan Engram, and Hayden Hurst

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