Dynasty Outlook - Kansas City Chiefs

Here at RotoBaller, our dynasty crew will be reviewing all 32 teams in our offseason Dynasty Team outlook series. Leading up to the draft, we will break down every franchise as they currently stand and will review them again after the conclusion of free agency and the NFL Draft. Which players should you buy and which players should you sell? Who will be sleepers this season and who will be busts? We will cover all the positions and all the angles for you.

The Chiefs built on what was a developing offense in 2016 to a consistent fantasy point factory in the 2017 season. Alex Smith turned in his best full year of fantasy production in his NFL career working with the emerging talent of Tyreek Hill on the outside and featuring Travis Kelce and his endzone dance moves throughout the season. Kareem Hunt was certainly a pleasant surprise to fantasy owners as he was a fantasy superstar through the first month of the regular season before settling into a lesser workload for most of the rest of 2017. The consolidation of touches in a given week made the Chiefs offense fairly predictable which, in turn, made fantasy owners happy to start each of these players in a given week.

Heading into 2018 there are big questions around the future of this team and offense. The offense will hinge on how well second year quarterback Patrick Mahomes performs in taking over for Alex Smith after Smith was traded to Washington. There will certainly be no lack of playmakers around Mahomes as the Chiefs signed Sammy Watkins a 3 year/ $48million deal in the offseason to be the ying to Tyreek Hill’s yang. What remains to be seen is how well all these new moving parts mesh in 2018 and beyond.

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Kansas City Chiefs Dynasty Outlook

Team Record: 10-6 (1^st in AFC West, Lost in Wild Card)

Fantasy Leaders

QB: Alex Smith – 295.1 (QB4)
RB: Kareem Hunt – 295.2 (RB4)
WR: Tyreek Hill – 239.2 (WR9)
TE: Travis Kelce – 233.5 (TE1)
IDP: Justin Houston – 169.9 (LB30)

Quarterback

The Chiefs have put all of their eggs in the Patrick Mahomes basket after trading Alex Smith to Washington this offseason. Mahomes was impressive in his only start in 2017 playing without Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce for the entire game, throwing for 284 yards with one INT. Having Albert Wilson and Demarcus Robison as your one number and two wide receivers will be much different than Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins on the outside.

Mahomes has some massive upside heading into 2018 and beyond. He has one of the strongest arms to come out of in the draft of the last few seasons, scoring in the 97^th percentile in arm strength (60mph) and a gunslinger mentality that should be to the benefit for fantasy owners for years to come. In his two years as a starter in college Mahomes led the Big 12 in passing yards, touchdowns responsible for and passing touchdowns. Fantasy owners will also be pleasantly surprised that Mahomes was an effective rusher in the redzone, scoring a combined 22 touchdowns on the ground in his two full seasons as a starter. He currently is a QB1 in dynasty leagues and has the potential to be a top five to seven fantasy quarterback in the years to come due to his massive upside.

After the Chiefs dealt Alex Smith in the offseason to Washington they found a veteran backup option for Mahomes in Chad Henne. Henne has not attempted a pass since 2014, but he should be able to provide insights to Mahomes as a pro with tons of experience.

Running Back

While it was certainly an inauspicious beginning for Kareem Hunt’ NFL career, fumbling on his first career carry, the rookie more than made up for it in 2017. Hunt led the league in rushing with 1,327 yards in his first campaign as a pro, but got there in a very strange way. Hunt started his rookie season rushing for 100 yards in four of his first five games and then did not break the 90 rushing yard mark until week 13 against the Raiders. Hunt’s usage was a question mark throughout the middle of 2017 and with former Chiefs’ offensive coordinator Matt Nagy moving on to lead the Chicago Bears, questions remain if Andy Reid will be able to use Hunt to his fullest potential going forward.  The potential is there with Hunt to continue to be a top seven dynasty running back asset going forward. He graded out as the number three half back (88.9) according to Pro Football Focus in 2017 only behind Todd Gurley (92) and Alvin Kamara (90.2). Not only was he rated extremely favorably by PFF, but Football Outsiders also had Hunt inside the top five in Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement, Yards Above Replacement and Defense adjusted-Value Over Average, meaning is a top five contributor on a per play and overall value basis at the running back position in 2017. He has a bright future going forward.

Even though Kareem Hunt was a nearly one-man show in 2017, the Chiefs also have an army of backs in their stable for 2018. Spencer Ware was destined to be the starter in 2017, but a torn ACL and PCL derailed that in the pre-season. Andy Reid expects Ware to be back in 2018, but there could be complications stemming from that injury that fantasy owners won’t know about until Ware steps on the field for OTAs and training camp. Ware, if healthy, will cut into some of Hunt’s touches, but the amount remains to be seen. He’s a good stash in 12 team leagues for 2018. Adding to the depth in the backfield will be Damien Williams, Charcandrick West and Kerwynn Williams. All three are able pass catchers and may carve out a small role in the offense in two RB sets, which the Chiefs used 135 times in 2017. These players should not take away much production from Hunt and Ware in 2018 and beyond.

Wide Receiver

One of the biggest moves in the offseason amongst skill players was the Chiefs signing of Sammy Watkins. Watkins has disappointed fantasy owners over the last two seasons only seeing an average of around five targets per game during that span. He’s only entering his age 25 season, and with a young quarterback that will want to stretch the ball down the field, Watkins has some great possible upside. The issue with Watkins this season and throughout the course of this three year contract will once again be volume. Will he be able to integrate into the Chiefs’ offense with a full offseason under his belt? How many of the left over targets will Watkins see in year one and going forward (Albert Wilson only saw 62 of the teams 528 targets as the number three passing game option)? Even though there are some questions around the role of Sammy Watkins with the Chiefs, there are few questions about his talent. Watkins is a very, very good athlete with a 90^th percentile Speed Score according to Player Profiler. He has excellent body control when playing the ball as well and is able to win at the catch point with regularity. He should be a strong secondary target for Mahomes, and someone that the young quarterback can trust to win in traffic. He’s worth WR3 consideration for most teams.

Even though Sammy Watkins is the shiny new toy in Andy Reid’s toy box, fantasy owners finally saw an unleashed Tyreek Hill in 2017. Hill was one of the most efficient fantasy receivers last season scoring 2.29 fantasy points per target (using PPR as the scoring method), which was number two in the NFL amongst wide receivers. Hill saw 21.3% of the team’s total targets in 2017, which should be repeatable going forward as Hill continues to improve his route running and chemistry with Pat Mahomes. If they can develop in unison, Mahomes and Hill can be a potentially lethal combination for fantasy owners with Mahomes’ big arm and Hill’s amazing 4.34 40 yard dash. Hill routinely would leave cornerbacks in his dust this past season and waved goodbye as he ran past them. Expect to see that happen for the foreseeable future. Hill is a top 15 wide receiver dynasty asset going forward.

The Chiefs have been looking for a number two outside option for the past few seasons. They tried out Chris Conley most recently, but he and Albert Wilson both failed to be consistent options. With Wilson out of the picture in Kansas City, there is some opportunity in the slot in three WR sets. Look for the Chiefs to address that need in the upcoming NFL Draft.

Tight End

Travis Kelce has become the most consistent tight end over the last two seasons with at least 80 receptions and 1,038 yards in each. Kelce finally became a factor in the redzone this past season seeing 20 redzone targets (top 10 in the league) and scored seven of his eight touchdowns within the 20. That impressive performance netted Kelce the number three tight end rating from PFF (87.8), including the number two grade as a receiver (88). He will turn 29 during the 2018 season, but tight end shelf life is typically longer than other skill positions, so he should have at least another two to three seasons of prime performance left. He should be considered a premium asset in dynasty leagues going forward, worth at least a top four first round pick in 2018 plus another asset.

The Chiefs added some depth at the tight end position this offseason by adding Tim Wright and Jace Amaro to Demetrius Harris and Orson Charles. Harris was the de-facto second choice at tight end in 2017, playing 516 snaps (48.1%). Harris has freaky speed at the position (4.57 40 yard dash) and great size at 6’7”m 235 pounds. Harris however isn’t the best blocker only grading out at 47.2 according to PFF. Adding players like Amaro and Tim Wright should serve as depth behind Harris and be potential blocking tight ends.

IDP

The Chiefs defense has gone through a massive overhaul this offseason, losing pass rusher Tamba Hali and trading away top corner Marcus Peters. However, the Chiefs tried to revamp their secondary by adding cornerback Kendall Fuller from Washington in the Alex Smith trade and signing inside linebacker Anthony Hitchens from Dallas. Hitchens should be a low-end LB2 and has a good chance of being the leading tackler on the team. Justin Houston is returning and is one of the best pass rushers in the NFL, even though he hasn’t totaled 10 sacks in three seasons. Heading into his age 29 season, there should still be a lot left in the tank. He’s a LB1 in sack heavy leagues. The backend of the Chiefs defense will get a massive boost by the returning Eric Berry at safety. Berry is one of the elite players at the position and should be considered a DB1 in all league formats.

Offseason Outlook

2018 Draft Picks
Round 2 (54), Round 3 (78), Round 3 (86), Round 4 (122) Round 4 (124), Round 6 (196), Round 7 (233), Round 7 (243

The Chiefs nearly filled all of their offensive needs heading into the NFL draft. They finally have another outside weapon to pair with Tyreek Hill in Sammy Watkins. Travis Kelce will continue to dominate the middle of the field, but the Chiefs could use another slot receiver to help man the three wide receiver sets. Expect the Chiefs to spend one of their later second day or an early third day pick on a wide receiver. The Chiefs will also need to address their pass rush as the combination of Dee Ford, Frank Zombo and Tamba Hali did not hold up opposite Justin Houston. Expect to see at least one pass rusher selected by Kansas City in the upcoming draft to help their lagging pass rush.

More 2018 Dynasty League Strategy