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NCAA Tournament bracket predictions for the West Region. NCAA Tournament picks, sleepers and busts - teams to target and avoid.
March Madness is officially here and RotoBaller will be giving a full breakdown on each tournament region, including some potential sleepers and busts. Here we'll be taking a look at the West Region.
I'm here to tell you some teams that I believe in - this should help you make the right tournament bracket decisions. Below I analyze the top four seeds, a potential bust, and a potential final four candidate. Hopefully my college basketball predictions can help you win your March Madness brackets. Now let's get to it.
Editor's Note: Be sure to check out the rest of our NCAA tournament columns and advice, including a guide to fill out your bracket, Tournament winners/picks, sleepers, busts and breakdowns of each region.
West Region top four seeds
Top Four Seeds: No. 1 Xavier, No. 2 North Carolina, No. 3 Michigan, No. 4 Gonzaga
While the East region is the worst group of top-four seeds, this is by far the strongest. Heck, even No. 5 seed Ohio State has a good shot at making the Final Four.
Xavier lost five games all year. They have 15 wins by 10 points or less and five by five or less. That can be viewed as a good team in close games, or a lucky team. All I know is when you have a 14-point lead at halftime of the Big East semis and you blow it to a bubble team, then something is wrong.
This is Chris Mack's best team. They're led by Trevon Bluiett who averaged 19.5 points per game and helped lead the Muskies to score 84 points per game, seventh in the nation. However, their defense stinks. They are 142nd in defensive efficiency, 52nd in Ken Pomeroy's adjusted defense, and 111th in opponent field goal percentage.
Also, Vegas pegged Xavier as the 11th betting favorite to win it all at 22-1, they're not even the first or second favorite to get out of their own region! That would be North Carolina and Michigan with Gonzaga not far behind.
North Carolina is 18-1 to defend their championship. Carolina was sixth in the ACC regular season standings. They are led by their star point guard Joel Berry who is looking to go to his third consecutive Final Four.
Something hasn't felt right about this team all year. However, the bracket shapes up well for them. A possible Sweet 16 matchup with Michigan awaits and that would be all too fitting on the 25-year anniversary of the 1993 NCAA Championship game where Chris Webber infamously called a timeout he didn't have. They play in Charlotte this weekend, so they'll have two de facto home games this weekend.
Michigan is the fourth betting favorite to cut down the nets in San Antonio at 8-1. It's shocking that a John Belein team has a better defense than offense. Yes, you read that correctly, they are the fifth ranked team in adjusted offense and 29th ranked team in adjusted offense, per Ken Pom.
They are/were the hottest team. I use both tenses because I'm scared the week off has cooled them off. Either way, they should have no problem getting through their first weekend of games with ease.
Gonzaga is right behind Xavier to win it all at 25-1. They have a possible rematch of their Elite Eight matchup last year with Xavier in the Sweet 16 (the Zags won by 24) and National Championship rematch against North Carolina in the Elite Eight. No matter what players they have, Mark Few gets the most out of his team each year.
They got the monkey off their back last year exorcising all the demons and finally reaching the Final Four and coming so close to winning the championship. They lost the bulk of their stars, but they've reloaded.
If you think they are overrated because they play in a bad conference, well they made the most of their non-conference schedule beating Ohio State by 27, Texas, Creighton, Washington while losing to Villanova, Florida, San Diego State, and St. Mary's. Those are their only losses.
Most Intriguing Matchup: No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 12 South Dakota St.
The classic 5/12 matchup will be played in Boise, ID. That's important to note because South Dakota State is closer in proximity than Ohio State is. I'm not going to lie and go research info and pretend I know a thing about the Jackrabbits. I'd never heard of Mike Daum until reading an article. He's the Jackrabbit's big man who averages 23.8 PPG and 10.4 RPG.
This is more about the perplexing Buckeyes. They haven't lost to a bad team all year with losses to Gonzaga, Butler, Clemson, North Carolina, Penn State x3, and Michigan. They do have the Big 10 player of the year with Keita Bates-Diop who averaged 19.4 PPG and 8.8 RPG. They are good in Ken Pom's metrics, 27th in offense and 16th in defense. All the numbers point to an Ohio State victory. However, something does not feel right about the Buckeyes and I'm sensing a major letdown game. But, if Ohio State does win this one, a showdown with Gonzaga looms. And either the Zags or Buckeyes have a very real chance at a Final Four appearance.
Bust of the Region
There's always a No. 1 seed that gets no respect and faded. This year it's Xavier and rightly so. Like I mentioned above, they score a lot, but struggle to get stops. A bad defense will eventually catch up to a terrific offense sooner or later. It doesn't help that they may be facing Michael Porter Jr. and Missouri in the Second Round. Porter would probably be the best player on the court and Xavier would struggle to slow him down.
If they make it to the Sweet 16, they'd probably face Gonzaga or Ohio State and if they get by them, Michigan or North Carolina awaits. That's a brutal stretch. I'm pulling for Xavier. I like their coach, this senior-led group, and the fact they play in the grind-it-out Big East. But their tendency of letting teams hang around, squeaking out narrow victories will catch up to them. A team like Carolina, Michigan, Gonzaga, Ohio State, even Missouri will pounce on the Muskies if allowed to hang around.
Final Four Pick
Gonzaga will return to the Final Four for a second consecutive year. They open with UNC-Greensboro in Boise. That shouldn't be a problem. If South Dakota State defeats Ohio State, then Gonzaga's road is even easier. If not, the Zags' lanky athletic team of 6-foot-8 forward Rui Hachimura, 6-9 forward Johnathan Williams and 6-11 Killian Tillie will create matchups nightmares for Ohio State on offense and defense. Gonzaga's "defense that has held opponents to 43.4 percent inside the 3-point line, the No. 6 mark in the nation."
If they get to the Sweet 16, they'd travel south to Los Angeles where they'll surely have the home court over Xavier (they're from Cincinnati). The game against Xavier will probably be decided by one possession. They'd then face Michigan or North Carolina in a rematch of last year's title game and revenge will surely be on their mind.
You need to go against the grain to win your pool and Gonzaga is that team in this region. They have the coach and experienced players who have been here before.
