RADIO
Steve Rebeiro examines when it is acceptable to make upset picks and why going chalk is the safest bet in your March Madness bracket.
During the month of March, a bunch of usually casual college basketball fans become experts for a few days while they fill out their bracket. You'll hear your friends talking about how DeAndre Ayton makes Arizona a "sleeper" team even though you know he has never watched the man play a game. The worst part is that a few weeks later, that person will be raking in the cash after winning his office pool.
Here's the thing about March Madness: you don't have to be an expert to be successful. The experts already did the work for you. Every seed was carefully chosen by a panel of experts that know much more about the sport then most of us.
Everybody always loves to pick as many upsets as possible, but there is a time and a place to get cute with your picks. Let's take a look at when you should and shouldn't get cute with your bracket.
Editor's Note: Be sure to check out the rest of our NCAA tournament columns and advice, including a guide to fill out your bracket, Tournament winners/picks, sleepers, busts and breakdowns of each region.
Don't Get Cute With Your Champion
Here's how the national champions have varied by seed since 1985, the year the field expanded to 64 teams:
- #1 - 20 Titles
- #2 - 5 Titles
- #3 - 4 Titles
- #4 - 1 Title
- #5 - 0 Titles
- #6 - 1 Title
- #7 - 1 Title
- #8 - 1 Title
- #9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16 - 0 Titles
Number one seeds have won more than half of the championships, and teams outside of the top three seeds have won just four times. The number one seeds are ranked number one for a reason. There's always a two seed that could have been a one seed, and theres always some sleeping giants lurking in the top 12 teams, but it's rare that a team outside of the top 12 is good enough to win the championship. There is a time and place to get cute with picks on your bracket. Picking your champion is not one of those times. The odds of a team outside of the top 12 winning the title, and the odds of you choosing the right team out of the 56 potential cinderella teams are lower than low.
Don't Get Too Cute With Your Final Four
Some more stats about seeding in the Final Four:
- Number one seeds have made the Final Four 54 times, accounting for 41% of teams to make the Final Four since 1985.
- Seeds 1-4 account for 83% of Final Four teams since 1985. Broken down by seed: 1 (54), 2 (28), 3 (15), 4 (13).
- Seeds five and lower account for 22 of a possible 132 Final Four Teams. Removing the five seed, seeds six and lower have made the Final Four just 16 times.
A team with a six seed or lower makes the Final Four every other year. Between seeds that have historically made a Final Four, you've still got a 1/24 chance of picking the right cinderella. Choosing a team lower than the five seed to make the tournament is a risk that usually isn't worth taking.
Picking between one and two seeds is the safest way to go, but if you want to get cute with it, teams seeded in the three, four and five spots have a chance. Find a lower seed in a bracket that you think looks weak and let it ride.
Get Cute With 11 & 12 Seeds
The 6/11 and 5/12 matchups are often the hardest to predict in the tournament. Sometimes you fall in love with a five or six seed and expect them to make a run. More often than not, one of those seeds is going to lost in the first round. a 12 seed has won a game in 29 of the last 33 tournaments. 11 seeds win even more often, going 6-2 in the first round in the last two tournaments.
These are the seeds you want to get cute with. Feel like picking all four 11 seeds to win in the first round? I wouldn't advise it, but it won't kill you in the long run. The majority of people will have the three seed in the Sweet 16 anyways, so knocking off a six seed you didn't have making it past the second round won't hurt you in the long run.
Which brings us to a very important final point...
Plan Your Upsets Around Your Winners
If you don't have any underdog teams you're sold on making a run, a good way to choose upset picks is to work backwards.
Fill out your bracket entirely without picking any major upsets. Then take a step back and look at the big picture. Let's say you have Arizona going to the Sweet 16. Maybe you choose Davidson to beat Kentucky, since you have Big Blue losing in the second round anyways. Choosing Davidson won't put a major dent in your overall score and will give you an underdog to root for.
This method allows you to get really cute if you wanted to. Let's say you graduated from the University of Rhode Island. You're throwing chalk out the window. You're picking the Rams to go to the Elite 8 and nobody can tell you otherwise. Now you can look at the big picture: you've got the Rams upsetting Duke in the second round.
Duke... Duke has a fun tournament history. They've won two titles over the last eight years. They've also lost to double digit seeds in the first round twice during that time, including a loss to Lehigh in 2012. This wouldn't be the first time Duke was upset in miraculous fashion. The Iona Gaels won a hard fought MAAC tournament. Maybe this is the year the Gaels step into the lions den and walk out victorious?
Picking Iona over Duke has little risk when you've already got the Blue Devils pencilled in to lose to URI. If Duke wins, you shrug it off since you know they don't stand a chance against the Rams anyways. If Iona wins, you look like freaking Nostradamus.
Am I recommending choosing Iona to upset Duke? God no. But working backwards through your bracket lets you come up with fun hypotheticals like this.
Remember: Chalk Is Your Friend
As I mentioned earlier, the experts already did the heavy lifting for you. Don't get too cute. When all else fails, pick the favorites. They're the favorites for a reason!
