RADIO
Welcome to Disaster Recovery, where each week I'll examine why your studs played like duds. This isn't a place to find out why you should have benched a player for somebody on your bench. Disaster Recovery is to examine the guys who you didn't think twice about benching, and deciding if you should be panicking at all about their value moving forward.
The players covered in this column will usually have to be in the RotoBaller top-10 at their respective positions, but it may vary depending on the status of the players each week.
Last week I wrote about how much you should panic about high draft picks not living up to their ADP's. I nicknamed the article the Disaster Recovery All-Stars. Somehow, I managed to snub a repeat offender who absolutely deserved to be on that list. I'll be talking about him and more players in this weeks duds.
Editor's Note: Steer clear of costly draft mistakes with RotoBaller’s expert Fantasy Football Bust analysis. We break down overvalued players, potential letdowns, and risky ADPs to avoid, so you can build a smarter, safer roster.
Update: I wrote this article Monday afternoon, when Jay Ajayi was still a Dolphin. I'm going to keep that part of the article, since some of it is still relevant to problems with Ajayi moving forward, but obviously things have changed now.
Week 8 Duds
Dak Prescott (QB, DAL) (#4 QB)
What Happened: Prescott had his worst game of the season, throwing for under 200 yards and failing to find the end zone for the first time all year in a win against Washington.
How Did It Happen: A downpour in Washington prevented Prescott from doing much of anything in the second half, and the Cowboys relied on Ezekiel Elliot to carry them to victory. Prescott had just 38 yards in the second half.
Panic Meter: Low. There isn't any concern here. Prescott has been a beast this season, tossing nine touchdowns over the past three weeks before Sunday. The elements got to him on Sunday and Dallas didn't need him to throw in the rain this. He'll be fine moving forward and remains a QB1.
Brandin Cooks (WR, NE) (#9 WR)
What Happened: Cooks was held to just five receptions for 26 yards against the Chargers, his lowest total of the season.
How Did It Happen: Tom Brady got everybody involved on Sunday. Five players had at least five receptions and four of those five turned it into at least 57 yards. Unfortunately for Cooks owners, he was the one that didn't.
Panic Meter: Low. There was plenty of encouraging signs for Cooks this week despite his low yardage total. He was second on the team in targets behind Rob Gronkowski. Along with Gronk, they were the only two Patriots to receive end zone targets this week. Cooks is still on pace for 1,126 yards and six touchdowns. He's currently fifth in the NFL in receiving yards. There's no need to panic on Cooks at the moment.
Keenan Allen (WR, LAC) (#5 WR)
What Happened: Allen hauled in five receptions for 61 yards in a loss to the Patriots.
How Did It Happen: This should have been a huge game for the Chargers passing attack. The Patriots entered as one of the worst pass defenses in the league, and the Chargers have a talented quarterback throwing to talented receivers. Instead, Rivers was only able to throw for 212 yards and one touchdown. It was a bad day for the Chargers.
Panic Meter: Medium. It wasn't a terrible game for Allen. In fact, it was his best game in three weeks. And thats why we're panicking a bit.
Allen hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 1. He hasn't had over 70 yards in his past four games. His targets have gone down in each of the past four games, going from 12 targets in Week 5 to a season low five targets this week. Allen had led Chargers receivers in targets every week this season, but found himself behind both Travis Benjamin and Tyrell Williams this week.
The good news for Allen owners is that he is still considered the WR1 in Los Angeles. He played in 93% of the Chargers snaps this week, compared to 62% for Benjamin. Benjamin and Allen are very different players, and what Benjamin brings to the table isn't as reliable as what Allen brings. I can't imagine Benjamin becoming the WR1 for the rest of the year. But Allen isn't looking as promising as he did four weeks ago. He's fallen from a fantasy WR1 to a WR2 at best over the past four weeks. Thats fine for where most of us drafted him. Temper your expectations a bit and Allen won't disappoint. I'd be shocked if he finds himself as the fifth ranked receiver again this year.
DeVonta Freeman (RB, ATL) (#6 RB)
What Happened: Freeman ran 12 times fo.r just 41 yards in a win against the Jets
How Did It Happen: It was a Tevin Coleman game. Coleman outcarried Freeman for the first time all season and had more rushing yards for the second time all year. While the Jets were able to contain Freeman to 41 yards, Coleman doubled that number on just two more carries. Neither one found the end zone.
Panic Meter: High. I'm concerned. Since coming out of the Falcons bye week, Freeman hasn't played great. He had decent yardage totals with 68 and 72 in the last two games, but failed to find the end zone in either one. He hasn't had more than three receptions this season and his season high in receiving yards is 32, so he doesn't have the benefit of PPR touches or receiving yards. He plays on an offense that just scored over 20 points for the first time since September, and he wasn't even part of the reason why they did.
The Falcons are struggling. In the past after a Tevin Coleman game, we knew that Kyle Shannahan would go back to Freeman. But do we know that Steve Sarkisian would return to Freeman if Coleman looks like the hot hand again in Week 9? This is an offensive coordinator fighting for his job and could look for any solution that will help him keep it. I'm not saying that Freeman owners should be abandoning ship, but they should have high concerns due to how inept their current offensive coordinator is. He may be a sell-high candidate, if somebody in your league still values him as high. He's starting to look touchdown dependent, and he hasn't scored in weeks.
Jay Ajayi (RB, MIA) (#9 RB)
What Happened: Ajayi rushed 13 times for just 23 yards in a blowout loss to the Baltimore Ravens.
How Did It Happen: The Miami offense was such a disaster that Ajayi only touched the ball 13 times in a game where Matt Moore was the starting quarterback. Ajayi's 1.8 yards per rush didn't do anything to help.
Panic Meter: Off the charts. I wrote about ADP draft busts last week and somehow forgot to add Ajayi. For Ajayi drafters, you're not escaping my wrath yet. Its time we talk about Jay Ajayi.
Last season, Jay Ajayi was a healthy scratch to start the season. The Dolphins had so little faith in Ajayi that they signed Arian Foster's corpse to be the starting running back. When Foster inevitably found himself back on the injury report, the Dolphins had no choice but to start Ajayi, who shocked the world by rushing for 200 plus yards in back to back games. Ajayi started the season as a healthy scratch because the Dolphins didn't think he was good. 25 football weeks later, we've come back to the same question: Are we sure Jay Ajayi is good?
Ajayi had one of the greatest three game stretches in NFL history last season, running for 529 yards and four touchdowns. In the 15 games that followed, Ajayi has ran for over 100 yards just three times (including a third 200 yard game) and has scored just two touchdowns. He hasn't scored a touchdown in 2017. His 1.8 yards per rush this week wasn't even his lowest of the season! He has four games this season with 51 or less rushing yards. He hasn't been a factor in the passing game until Matt Moore took over, mostly due to check-down passes from a career backup quarterback.
Ajayi still might be a good football player. He's shown so many flashes of greatness in his career. But he's also shown so many flashes of being a bad running back. This season, he has already posted a yards per rush of 2.2 or less three times. He's only played seven games! This was a guy going as high as the first round and no lower than the third round in preseason drafts. He isn't going to finish anywhere near his ADP. He may have two or three more 100 yard performances, and he probably isn't going to lose his starting job, so I'd understand why people would still start him. But he truly isn't anything more than a week to week FLEX play at best right now. How can we trust a running back who has been unable to produce yards in almost half of his games and still hasn't found the end zone seven games into the season?
WEDNESDAY UPDATE: Ajayi has moved onto greener pastures, but I think my point from this section still stands: we don't even know if Jay Ajayi is actually a good NFL running back. The Eagles plan on feeding him. We should know quickly if the Ajayi trade will be remembered more like the Marshawn Lynch trade or the Trent Richardson trade. I might be hesitant to start him this week, but Ajayi owners should be very happy that he was traded.
