Two NFC East Value Pick Sleepers: RG3 and Jeremy Maclin

For Middle Round Sleeper Value, Look East

Robert Griffin III - QB, Redskins

Robert Griffin III was one of the most disappointing players in fantasy football last season.  In ESPN’s standard scoring leagues, RG3 had seven games where he finished with less than 15 points out of the thirteen games he started.  He threw only 16 touchdowns and chucked up 12 interceptions, a far cry from the supremely accurate passer that showed up to play in 2012.  After a scintillating 2012 season, Griffin disappointed many fantasy owners looking for a similarly sterling sophomore effort.  This is exactly why you should feel comfortable drafting running backs and wide receivers while Peyton Manning and Drew Brees come off the board: Griffin’s ADP currently hovers in the late 60s, good for a ninth-round pick in eight-team leagues and a sixth-rounder in twelve-team leagues.  I believe that 2014 Griffin will return to his brilliant 2012 form and the owners who drafted him will be very satisfied with the points coming out of their QB spot each week.

First, the influence of Griffin’s ACL tear in the 2012 playoffs cannot be ignored when discussing Griffin’s 2013 season and his future prospects.  Griffin rushed himself back onto the field in Week 1, and he was never quite right as a result.  Nowhere is this more clearly evident than in Griffin’s rushing statline.  In 2012, RG3 rushed for 815 yards and 7 touchdowns on 120 carries.  However, in 2013, Griffin rushed for a paltry 489 yards on 86 carries and had no touchdowns.  While a loss of 34 carries certainly amounts for the loss in total yardage, Griffin’s yards per carry decreased from 6.8 to 5.7.  The explosive playmaking that is so integral to Griffin’s game was compromised by a knee that was never truly 100 percent.  RG3 will benefit immensely from having an entire offseason to let his knee get back to full strength, and this should return some explosiveness to his game and tighten up his passing mechanics at least somewhat.

Second, I believe that Griffin will benefit tremendously from the hire of Jay Gruden as the Redskins’ head coach.  To understand the impact Gruden’s tutelage can have on a young quarterback, we need to look at the last quarterback to play under him: Cincinnati’s Andy Dalton.  Last season, Dalton finished as a top-5 fantasy quarterback, but also had four games where he scored less than 10 points.  No knock on Dalton, but the Bengals’ QB has never shown the sheer playmaking ability that Griffin has displayed in the past, and has never had a completion percentage as high as the 65.6 percent that Griffin posted in his rookie year. Dalton’s most interception-free year was his rookie campaign, in which he threw 13 interceptions.  Griffin’s “trainwreck” of a season last season produced only 12.  I believe that if Gruden can turn the less-talented Dalton into a top-5 fantasy option, giving him Robert Griffin III to work with is like taking away a Prius and replacing it with a Mustang.

Finally, Griffin’s receiving corps has been significantly upgraded with the addition of DeSean Jackson.  Jackson is coming off a career year, and his acquisition will provide a potent aerial weapon.  Griffin also looks to profit from the return of emerging talent Jordan Reed to the starting tight end spot.  Should he stay healthy for the whole season, Reed will turn into a potent option in the Redskins’ aerial attack.  With the trio of Jackson, Reed and Pierre Garcon (who led the NFL with 113 receptions last season) Griffin has the tools to collect serious points through the air.

 

Jeremy Maclin - WR, Eagles

Elsewhere in the NFC East, the only Eagles player going in the first three rounds of 8-team, 10-team, or 12-team formats is LeSean McCoy.  That’s strange to me, because I see them as the NFC version of the Broncos: you want in on that offense in any capacity possible.

Which brings me to Jeremy Maclin.  Maclin didn’t get to play in Kelly’s “blur” offense last year, and watched as DeSean Jackson had a career year.  Jackson posted career highs in receptions (82) and receiving yardage (1,332 yds) while matching his career high in touchdowns (9).  He scored 182 points in ESPN standard scoring, good for the WR10 spot and ahead of guys such as Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Vincent Jackson, Pierre Garcon, Wes Welker, Keenan Allen, and T.Y. Hilton.  All of these guys are going ahead of Jeremy Maclin in drafts this year, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Maclin found himself outperforming most of these receivers, if not all of them.

Coming out of the University of Missouri in 2009, here are some things that combine scouts had to say about Maclin, according to his player profile on NFL.com:

“Explosive straight-line speed and quickness out of his breaks. Natural playmaker who is a threat to score ---from any distance -- on every snap. Versatile athlete who can make plays in the running, receiving or return games. Natural pass catcher.”

That combine report may as well just have said “PERFECT FOR CHIP KELLY” stamped on it in big red block letters.  Maclin is, as the combine report says, an explosive playmaker with great hands who can make plays from anywhere on the field.  He is the kind of player who shines when he is given open space, and Chip Kelly’s offense is designed to manufacture open space for playmakers. The playmaker role was a great fit for Jackson, and like Jackson, Maclin has the ability to produce consistently and explosively in that role.  On average, he is the 25th receiver off the board, but I think that he, like Jackson before him, has the ability to produce top 10 numbers.  Fantasy leagues can be won on getting value like that, and they can be lost on passing it up.

By now, you probably have a solid plan for your first two or three rounds.  You know who you want, you know who you can get, and you know how you value those players.  But once you get past the early rounds of the draft, you slip into a murky morass of “maybe” guys.  When you’re trying to figure out which of those guys you want, keep in mind that Robert Griffin III and Jeremy Maclin can be found in that group of players.  Remember that they play in offenses that will maximize their talents, and by extension their fantasy value.  At their current ADP, that value can end up being the steal of your draft.