8 Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers - Matt Chapman, Bryce Miller, Manny Machado, More

June 11, 2026

Jeremy analyzes 8 fantasy baseball risers, fallers, breakouts for hitters and pitchers in Week 11 of 2026. He discusses buy/sell candidates for fantasy baseball.

Welcome to another midweek edition of Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers for Week 11 of the 2026 season! In this piece, I’ll take a look at Matt Chapman, Bryce Miller, Manny Machado, and more. 

It's important to keep up with recent hitter and pitcher trends, whether it's a hot streak worth buying or a cold spell worth sending a player to the bench or the waiver wire. Each week, we'll take a look at four risers and four fallers to discuss how their recent performance is affecting their future outlook.

Staying up to date on the recent trends will give you an edge over your league mates and hopefully propel you to a fantasy championship. With so many players covered here each week, you're bound to gain some knowledge on potential waiver wire moves or trades. Without further ado, let's get into it.

Fantasy Baseball Hitter Risers

Matt Chapman, 3B, San Francisco Giants

Matt Chapman was shaping up to be one of the biggest disappointments in fantasy and was probably dropped in many of your leagues. He only homered once in March and April, and followed that up by slashing just .186/.259/.275 with no homers in May. 

That all changed once the calendar flipped to June, as he entered Wednesday batting .407 with three home runs in nine June games. That was before taking his Wednesday performance into account, where he went 4-for-5 with another two long balls. This actually brings his season slash line up to a more respectable .262/.345/.409, which is unrecognizable compared to where it was 10 days ago. 

Matt Chapman's huge day at the plate sparked a @SFGiants comeback 😤 pic.twitter.com/8rOuikGnU6

— MLB (@MLB) June 11, 2026

This goes to show just how quickly a player can turn their season around, even once we’re two months into the season. Chapman is worth an add as a hot-hand streaming play if he is available in your league, and if he avoids falling back off the cliff, he could re-establish himself as a starting-caliber fantasy option long-term.

Isaac Paredes, 3B, Houston Astros

Isaac Paredes has also been heating up in a big way, hitting .304 with three homers in the past seven days. Those came in back-to-back-to-back games from June 3rd to June 5th, and he has six home runs in the past month. 

While he had a slow start to 2026, most of his underlying metrics haven’t changed since last season, including his league-leading pull air rate of 37.5%. The 27-year-old has even improved his ground ball rate from 30.6% to 27.7% and his total air rate from 69.4% to 72.3%. He’s putting more balls into the air than ever, which should be a recipe for success at Daikin Park. 

Isaac Paredes socks a 3-run jack and has now homered in 3 straight games 💪 pic.twitter.com/f6l8vr73VS

— MLB (@MLB) June 6, 2026

Paredes has homered at a pace of 30 homers every 162 games in his time with the Rays and Astros in his career, which is a starting-caliber fantasy option at one of the weakest positions in fantasy.

Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Risers

Bryce Miller, Seattle Mariners

Bryce Miller just continues to dominate. His most recent start came against the Tigers on June 6th, where he tossed six shutout innings, only allowing one hit and two walks while striking out nine. That start brought his ERA down to 1.33 and his WHIP down to 0.78. 

The other important thing to note about that start is that there was no piggybacking with Miller and Luis Castillo. Both players were clearly unhappy with the arrangement, and the Mariners finally decided to make the move to a six-man rotation. This will stop the weirdness surrounding Miller, who would often lose out on quality starts whenever he wouldn’t actually start the game. 

Bryce Miller was phenomenal again today.

6 IP, H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 9 K, 16 Whiffs

Since returning from the IL...

27 IP, 1.33 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 29/5 K/BB

Dynasty stock 📈📈#TridentsUp pic.twitter.com/joqDW7LhcL

— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) June 6, 2026

The 27-year-old’s underlying metrics are truly off the charts, as he’s featured a 24.6% hard-hit rate (98th percentile), 29.3% strikeout rate (89th percentile), and 5.1% walk rate (93rd percentile). The strikeout rate is even five percent higher than it was in 2024, when Miller was establishing himself as an ace. 

He posted a 2.94 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 2024, so this elite performance isn’t coming out of nowhere. The righty did have a horrible 2025 season, but it looks like he is fully back in 2026. It’s time to buy back in at this point, as Miller is currently out-pitching every other fantasy ace in that rotation, including Bryan Woo, Logan Gilbert, and George Kirby. 

Noah Cameron, Kansas City Royals

Noah Cameron has quietly been one of the most consistent starting pitchers over the past month, as he’s now logged five straight quality starts since May 16th. Over that span, he’s allowed only six runs on 17 hits and three walks with 31 strikeouts over 30 innings, bringing his season ERA to 3.84 and his WHIP to 1.19. 

This is the type of consistency that Cameron immediately brought to the table in his rookie season last year, as he started his career with five straight quality starts and only gave up more than three runs in five of his 24 starts last season. He won’t be an elite strikeout option and doesn’t blow hitters away with great velocity or stuff, but there’s a track record of soft-tossing lefties able to outperform their underlying metrics at the major league level. 

That’s especially true for someone like Cameron, who offers a diverse six-pitch mix to constantly keep batters guessing. That, along with the 26-year-old’s excellent 6.2% walk rate, is enough to get the job done more times than not. Don’t expect him to turn into an ace, but a back-end rotation piece without much volatility is a valuable asset in any fantasy league. 

Fantasy Baseball Hitter Fallers

Manny Machado, 3B, San Diego Padres

Manny Machado is one of the many slumping hitters in the Padres offense, and there just has never been a point this season where he’s really gotten it going. It’s gotten even worse recently, as he entered Wednesday batting .172 in the past seven days, .163 in the past 14 days, and .143 in the past month. 

On the season, he’s slashing .172/.253/.345 with 11 home runs, 34 RBI, 29 runs, and one stolen base. The veteran just isn’t hitting the ball well at all, particularly when it comes to launch angle. While his 42.1% hard-hit rate and 89.7 mph average exit velocity grade out as about league average, his launch angle sweet spot rate of 29.2% ranks in only the 15th percentile. 

While the 11 homers are nice, that is mainly the extent of his extra-base hits, considering his poor slugging percentage. I’m not suggesting to drop Machado, and there are plenty of other third basemen underperforming too, but he’s certainly dropping down the rankings overall.

Alex Bregman, 3B, Chicago Cubs

Speaking of underperforming third basemen, Alex Bregman is slashing .246/.331/.343 with only five home runs. It’s been even worse as of late, as he’s batting .174 in the last seven days and .200 in the last 14. 

The underlying metrics don’t look great, but that’s par for the course with Bregman. His 5.1% barrel rate, 69.8 mph bat speed, and 39.2% hard-hit rate have all taken slight steps back, but not enough to account for this much of a decline. He typically makes up for the poor quality of contact with an elite pull air rate, which has also only fallen from 24.4% to 23.5%. 

However, the slight decline combined with his move to Wrigley Field might be enough to cause this. Look no further than previously mentioned Isaac Paredes for proof, who hit three home runs in 52 games when he was on the Cubs in 2024. The park just isn’t good for extreme pull-hitters, as is also evidenced by Bergman’s current 162-game pace of 12 home runs. 

I think better days are ahead for the 32-year-old with the potential to make him a starting-caliber fantasy option again, but the days of elite production are likely long gone. It’s tough to fit Bregman into even the top-12 rest-of-season third base rankings, and at this point, I’d prefer Paredes.

Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Fallers

Andrew Painter, Philadelphia Phillies

Andrew Painter has had a very up-and-down season, which might be expected out of a rookie. However, it’s becoming clear at this point that there’s going to be more bad moments than good ones. It looked like he was starting to bounce back and find his groove in three starts from May 18th to May 24th, where he didn’t allow more than two runs in any of them. 

Unfortunately, that all came crashing down in his past two starts, where he’s allowed 10 runs on 15 hits and three walks over eight innings against the Dodgers and White Sox. It all comes down to his fastball, which has garnered only a 9.9% whiff rate with a .585 slugging percentage against the pitch. Even though his two most-used secondaries, the slider and splitter, have whiff rates both north of 35%, the fastball just isn’t good enough to bring the whole arsenal together. 

CWS - Colson Montgomery Solo HR (16)

📏 380 ft | 💨 97.2 mph | 📐 33°
⚾️ 95 mph four-seam fastball (PHI - RHP Andrew Painter)
🏟️ Out in 30/30 parks 💣

CWS (5) @ PHI (0)
🔺 3rd#WhiteSox pic.twitter.com/IqoAIDLb3k

— MLB Home Runs (@MLBHRs_) June 6, 2026

The 23-year-old has posted an 18% strikeout rate and .270 xBA on the season with a 6.21 ERA and 1.57 WHIP, which are numbers that simply don’t show a path to fantasy relevance. You don’t want to give up on Painter completely in keeper or dynasty leagues, but 2026 might be a lost cause.

Joey Cantillo, Cleveland Guardians

Joey Cantillo had some sleeper appeal heading into 2026, and he showed at least some promise out of the gate, not allowing more than three runs in a start through his first six outings. However, it has been rocky ever since, and the past couple of weeks have been especially bad. 

He allowed seven runs through five innings in his last time out against the Rangers, and spanning his past three starts, the lefty has allowed 15 runs on 18 hits and nine walks over 11 innings pitched. That’s not what you like to see, and he now holds a 4.57 ERA and 1.51 WHIP on the year. 

Poor control is really hurting Cantillo, as his 12.4% walk rate ranks in the 15th percentile. It’s hard to succeed with that many free passes, especially when it accompanies a middling 21.6% strikeout rate and 9.4% barrel rate. The 26-year-old had particular appeal in head-to-head points leagues where his relief pitcher eligibility increased his value, but at this point, you can’t even trust starting him there, either. 

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