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RotoBaller's top PGA player props, best bets, and matchup picks for the 2026 PGA Championship. Get commission-free odds and market edges with Novig golf picks.
Hello golf fans, it's great to be with you again here at RotoBaller! Following a thrilling finish and ultimately a 100-1 outright winner at Quail Hollow, the Tour moves swiftly onto the year's second Major -- the 2026 PGA Championship at Aronimink!
This week's picks will all be using the odds on the most unique and fastest-growing sports prediction sites -- Novig. If you're not familiar with the site, I'll explain how it works and provide some of my favorite wagers to place on Novig. There are lots of juicy numbers available for the year's first major!
As always, make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your season-long, DFS, and betting needs. Now, here are some of my favorite PGA bets and props for the 2026 Truist Championship Signature Event.
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What is Novig?
Novig is one of the fastest-growing peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. On Novig, users trade directly with each other, without the "vig" typically associated with a sportsbook. The vig is the fee sportsbooks charge you to use their services. It's a hidden cost that can be found in the odds that are being offered on each side of a specific bet. When a book offers -110 odds on both sides of a bet, it is keeping close to 10% of every bettor's wager, regardless of whether you win or lose.
On Novig, users trade with each other on the outcomes of sporting events, similarly to the way that investors trade on the stock market. But instead of having to beat the books, you just have to win against other users -- there's no commission kept by the site.
Users can bet on most traditional sports markets, including moneyline bets, spreads, totals, tournament matchups, player props, parlays, and futures!
Novig operates with two virtual currencies. Novig coins can be wagered for fun and to test out strategies, while Novig cash can be wagered on all markets and then redeemed for real cash prizes.
Access to Novig is widespread; it's now accessible in 36 U.S. states.
How Does Novig Work?
Since users are not playing against the books, there is an opportunity to make more money per wager that you win, and users can usually find better values on bets (in terms of the prices being offered) than on traditional sportsbooks.
There are no oddsmakers; users dictate their own odds. You can either accept the odds that the market is offering or set your own odds.
If you set your own odds, another user has to accept them on the other side for the bet to be activated.
Users drive the market, not the sportsbook or oddsmakers!
PGA Tournament Matchup Picks
All odds are from Novig and were accurate/available as of 5/13/2026. Odds are subject to change.
J.J. Spaun (-124 at Novig) OVER Hideki Matsuyama
I've frankly been slow to concede ground on Hideki's winning prospects throughout 2026, as many of his strengths still align with those of the game's elite -- particularly around the greens and with his long-iron play.
But as we transition this week to Aronimink, a 7,300-yard golf course primarily defended by some of the most difficult greens these players will see all season, Hideki's strengths suddenly feel muted -- and his weaknesses more clearly exposed.
Matsuyama ranks outside the top 50 in this field in Total Driving, Wedge Proximity, and Approach Putt Performance — the primary lag-putting metric I'm emphasizing this week. And across his last seven starts, he's recorded just one finish better than T20.
Compare that with reigning U.S. Open Champion J.J. Spaun, and the contrast in current form becomes difficult to ignore. Spaun has already logged a win, a T5 last week, and three additional top-25 finishes across his last seven starts. He's also been the hottest iron player on the PGA Tour over the last three months, gaining more than a stroke per round on approach during that span.
Spaun also holds the edge over Matsuyama both off the tee and on the greens, ranking top 15 in driving accuracy and top 30 in approach putting. He also produced the best putting performance of his career on Oakmont's lightning-fast bentgrass greens en route to the U.S. Open title.
Given Spaun's advantages across all three of those key areas, I see meaningful value at -124 in this head-to-head and expect this number to close much closer to -150 by Thursday morning.
Cameron Young (+123 at Novig) OVER Rory McIlroy
Although Rory makes for a difficult fade over four days at a Major Championship, I don't believe this price fully encapsulates the progression Cameron Young has made in the last 12 months.
Since bringing his close friend and former college teammate Kyle Sterbinsky on the bag at the 2025 Truist Championship, Young has accrued three wins and is top 10-ing at an astounding 58% clip across 24 starts (compared to just 40% in that time for McIlroy).
His putting has evolved into a legitimate weapon, ranking sixth on the PGA Tour on a per-round basis, while his driver remains one of the premier assets in world golf -- and one of the few capable of rivaling McIlroy atop the strokes gained leaderboards.
Pair that with a dramatic leap around the greens: jumping from 107th to 16th year-over-year, and there are suddenly very few weaknesses left in Young's profile.
In head-to-head situations, Young has also finished ahead of McIlroy in five of their last eight shared starts, which makes an implied win probability south of 45% feel slightly too low in this matchup. I make this line much closer to even money, even accounting for the confidence and momentum McIlroy continues to carry following the completion of the career Grand Slam.
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PGA Finishing Position Props
All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 5/13/2026. Odds are subject to change.
Tyrrell Hatton WINNER (+7043 at Novig)
While Tyrrell Hatton may not command weekly attention in the way many of the game's biggest stars do, his recent record in major championships deserves far more respect than the betting market appears willing to give.
At Oakmont last June, Hatton stood on the 16th green with a chance to take the outright lead with two holes remaining in the U.S. Open. His birdie attempt narrowly slipped by the left edge, and a costly bogey at the drivable 17th ultimately opened the door for J.J. Spaun to capture his first major title.
Hatton followed that disappointment with another strong showing at Royal Portrush, sitting inside the top six after each of the first three rounds before a Sunday 72 dropped him to T16 by week's end.
And at Augusta this spring, he finally reversed those Sunday fortunes: firing a final-round 66, the low round of the day, to finish just two shots behind Rory McIlroy for the best major result of his career.
Despite that run of elite performances, the market still appears hesitant to view Hatton as a true contender this week. His lack of elite distance should be mitigated somewhat by Aronimink's modest 7,300-yard setup, while his historically elite iron play and short game have consistently translated in difficult scoring environments -- both in the Major Championships and in wins around Bay Hill, the Scottish Links, and Wentworth.
I see Tyrrell as a legitimate top 20 player on the planet given his recent play. And with 9.5 points earned from his 15 career Ryder Cup matches, he's already proven he can rise to the occasion on the sport's grandest stages. At 70-1, this number feels several tiers too long for a player of Hatton's caliber.
