MLB Best Bets: Top Player Props & Novig Market Picks (Wednesday, 5/13/26)

May 13, 2026

Get Thunder Dan Palyo's top MLB best bets and player props for Wednesday, 5/13/26. Expert picks powered by the Novig betting exchange - see today's highest-value plays. Win more with RotoBaller's expert betting advice.

It's another action-packed slate of MLB games on the docket today, with some great pitching matchups, a few elite spots for bats, and quite a few strikeout prop targets as well! I have a little bit of everything for you today!

If you're reading this, I'll assume you also bet on baseball regularly. Today's picks will all be using the odds on the most unique and fastest-growing sports prediction sites -- Novig. If you're not familiar with the site, I'll explain how it works and provide some of my favorite wagers to place on Novig.

As always, make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy football and betting needs. Now, here are some of my favorite MLB bets and player props for Wednesday's games.

What is Novig?

Novig is one of the fastest-growing peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. On Novig, users trade directly with each other, without the "vig" typically associated with a sportsbook. The vig is the fee sportsbooks charge to use their services. It's a hidden cost in the odds offered on each side of a specific bet. When a book offers -110 odds on both sides of a bet, it is keeping close to 10% of every bettor's wager, regardless of whether you win or lose.

On Novig, users trade with each other on the outcomes of sporting events, similarly to the way that investors trade on the stock market. But instead of having to beat the books, you just have to win against other users -- the site keeps no commission.

Users can bet on most traditional sports markets, including moneyline bets, spreads, totals, player props, parlays, and futures!

Novig operates with two virtual currencies. Novig coins can be wagered for fun and to test out strategies, while Novig cash can be wagered on all markets and then redeemed for real cash prizes.

Access to Novig is widespread; it's now accessible in 36 U.S. states.

How Does Novig Work?

Since users are not playing against the books, there is an opportunity to make more money per wager you win, and users can usually find better value on bets (in terms of the prices offered) than on traditional sportsbooks.

There are no oddsmakers; users dictate their own odds. You can either accept the odds the market offers or set your own odds. If you set your own odds, another user has to accept them on the other side for the bet to be activated. Users drive the market, not the sportsbook or oddsmakers!

NRFI (No Runs First Inning) Bets

All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 9:00 AM ET

L.A. Angels at Cleveland Guardians: UNDER 0.5 runs - 1st Inning Total (-150)

As usual, we are getting some heavy juice on the best NRFI spots, but both bets I am on are still coming in at -150 or better for now, so I'm okay with it.

This game features two very good lefties on the bump, as Reid Detmers squares off against Parker Messick. Both pitchers have a solid advantage today as well, as both the Guardians and Angels have been below-average offenses this season. The Angels have been shut out in the first frame in five of their last six games, while Cleveland has a three-game NRFI streak intact.

San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers: UNDER 0.5 runs - 1st Inning Total (-145)

Here's the other top pitching matchup on the board in my eyes, as Brewers' ace Jacob Misiorowski takes on Michael King of the Padres. The Miz has been lights out this season and gets a slumping Padres offense that ranks 29th in baseball with a wRC+ of 69 against RHP the last two weeks.

King has a bit more of a challenge, as Milwaukee is a tough lineup to navigate, but King has yet to surrender a first-inning run this season across his first eight starts.

MLB Over/Under Bets

Washington Nationals at Cincinnati Reds OVER 9.5 Total Runs (-101)

These two teams went off for 14 runs yesterday at Great American Ballpark, and I think we could see more offensive fireworks today as the wind is projected to be blowing out around 10-12 mph in the already HR-friendly stadium.

JJ Bleday against RHP in 13 games and 42 PAs:

.294/.429/.765/1.193

215 wRC+ (!!)
19.0% BB 14.3% K

He sat in Louisville for a month before getting called up. pic.twitter.com/O3y14wpWnN

— Nati Sports (@Nati_Sports) May 11, 2026

The Reds' offense has power up and down the lineup, and I really don't trust Jake Irvin to shut them down, as I think he's always a few bad pitches away from a blow-up start. For the Nats, they are facing Reds' lefty Nick Lodolo, who is only making his second start of the season. He didn't look very good in his first start, and this Washington lineup is a lot more dangerous than people may realize, with hitters like James Wood and C.J. Abrams hitting the ball well and a few underrated lefty-mashers like Brady House and Joey Wiemer mixed in there, too.

Novig Promo Code and Welcome Bonus

Use code BALLER to receive a $25 purchase match (50% off up to $25) on your first Novig purchase.

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You can claim your welcome offer to Novig right now by clicking on the image below.

Prop Bet Picks

All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 9:00 AM ET

Nick Lodolo UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (-111)

We have to go "lightning round" on pitcher props today, since I have six of them set to go! Lodolo had only a 9% strikeout rate in his debut, and faces a Nats offense that could give him trouble today. He's probably not stretched all the way out, either, throwing just 78 pitches in his first start, so going with the under here in a game with a 9.5 run total makes a ton of sense.

Shota Imanaga OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (+100)

Imanaga has been just so good this year; it's awesome to see him healthy and regaining his rookie-year form. He's been even better than his rookie season, actually, with a 3.27 SIERA, 28.3%, and a 15.7% SwStr%.

We're getting nice odds here because the Braves are no slouch, but Shota has gone for 6+ strikeouts in five of his last seven starts.

Jacob Misiorowski OVER 7.5 Strikeouts (-147)

Wow, the value here is drying up quickly as I swear this was just -120 when I started writing this article. The Miz has been mowing down everyone, with a 39.5% K% and 17.1% SwStr%. This is a perfect matchup, too, as the Padres are striking out the fourth-most against RHP over the last two weeks (26%).

Christian Scott OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-139)

Scott has been sneaky good in the strikeout department this year, with six and eight strikeouts in his last two starts. He won't keep up a 31% K% all season, but this number is far too low for what he's shown us so far with a rebooted arsenal of pitches.

Shohei Ohtani over 6.5 Strikeouts (-126)

Ohtani has been incredible on the mound this year, with a sub-1.00 ERA and 29% K%. He's whiffed seven or more hitters in five out of six starts, including seven strikeouts against the Giants the first time he faced them in April. He is so tough on righties, and could see 5-6 of them in the San Francisco lineup tonight.

Seth Lugo UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (-133)

If you ever read my stuff, you know that I am a Seth Lugo naysayer. He's been pretty good this year, but he's not an elite strikeout pitcher by any means, and I am always looking for a good regression spot. I know it's the White Sox and they strike out plenty, but he only got four Sox the first time he faced them, and his 8% SwStr% suggests that he's overperforming in Ks this year.

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