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Kevin's best MLB player prop bets for today (4/25/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Munetaka Murakami, Colson Montgomery and more.
Welcome Back, RotoBallers! We've got another full slate of Saturday baseball, including a game in Mexico City that looks ripe for the long ball. We've got about a full month of baseball under our belts, and the data is starting to look more and more trustworthy. That's hopefully going to translate to us cashing a few bets here. We're due, so let's hope the gambling gods view it the same way.
I've got four bets for you today that all feature left-handed hitters. We've got one in Mexico City, one in Cincinnati, and a pair of lefties in Chicago that all have appealing matchups. Remember that home run bets are long shots by nature, so let's keep that bet size smaller, whether you're betting them straight, putting them in a parlay, or utilizing a round robin.
Below you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Saturday, April 25, 2026. All odds are based on what was available at the time of publishing, so make sure to shop around and see if you can find better odds on other books throughout the day. Now let's get to the picks, already!
MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (4/25/2026)
Munetaka Murakami OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+325, Hard Rock Bet)
What an immediate impact the 26-year-old is having. Coming into Friday night's action, he had hit a homer in five of his last six games, with three of those games featuring three-hit performances. That was before taking Miles Mikolas deep on Friday night. He's absolutely locked in, and I love his chances against Washington's Jake Irvin.
MUNETAKA MURAKAMI 😤
HOME RUN NO. 11 pic.twitter.com/KW8paBl3K3
— MLB (@MLB) April 25, 2026
The appealing nature of Irvin starts with his barrel rate and his hard hit rate. The barrel rate is in the ninth percentile, and the hard hit rate is in the sixth percentile. He's prone to barrels, and that's ideal when we're looking for homers.
Conversely, Murakami is in the 99th percentile in both hard hit rate and barrel rate. That's certainly influenced by the impactful week he's had, no doubt, but I love the idea of riding a hot streak when it's this scorching hot.
Irvin also happens to be very prone to lefties getting the ball in the air on the road this season. That rate sits at 59.1% this season. Meanwhile, Murakami is posting a 49.1% fly-ball rate this season.
Now, because of his recent hot streak, Murakami's numbers on the road look significantly better than they do at home. But over this streak, he's posted a fly-ball rate of 55.6% with a HR/FB rate of 50.0%. He gets it in the air, and then he demolishes it. For the 26-year-old, it's that simple.
What fully sold me on this bet, though, is the pitch mix that Irvin uses to attack lefties. It's a mix of four-seamers, curves, and cutters. The four-seamer and cutter have launch angles of 30 degrees and 29 degrees, respectively, so they're getting in the air. They also have hard hit rates of 52.9% (four-seamer) and 66.7% (cutter). That's a bunch of potential.
Murakami has also demolished these three pitches, with a .512 xwOBA being the lowest xwOBA against these three. It feels like a match made in heaven.
Additionally, the winds are projected to be blowing towards right field at Rate Field. There's a chance it pushes a ball foul, but it certainly doesn't hurt us if Murakami gets one started in center that pushes over the shorter right field walls.
Give me a long ball from Murakami to get us started. Now to another Chicago lefty.
Colson Montgomery OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+375, Hard Rock Bet)
I have a really strong feeling that at least one of these lefty sluggers is taking Irvin deep on Saturday. If it's not Murakami, then I think Montgomery's the perfect one to back. He's equally as hot right now, hitting a homer in four of his last five games coming into Friday night.
That's helped break him out of an early-season slump. His Baseball Savant page isn't as covered in red as Murakami's is, but the barrel rate still is in the 90th percentile. I'll side with that almost every time for a home run bet, especially when he's coming into a homestand this hot.
COLSON.
MONTGOMERY.
423 FEET.FOUR STRAIGHT GAMES WITH A HR 😳 pic.twitter.com/MZhLVfDcZG
— White Sox on CHSN (@CHSN_WhiteSox) April 23, 2026
For all the same reasons we're fading Irvin with Murakami, we're doing the same with Montgomery. The big difference will be his strengths against Irvin's pitch mix. Montgomery has struggled against four-seamers this year, hitting them for just a .214 wOBA and a .215 xwOBA.
So he's likely to see more of those than sinkers and cutters. But if he does get a chance against either, he should do damage. If it happens to be a cutter, then that's going to be ideal, as three of his seven homers this season have come off of cutters.
Irvin has yet to give up a homer off a cutter this season, but I think a launch angle of 29 degrees and a hard hit rate of 66.7% point towards more cutters leaving the yard very, very soon. If it's not Murakami that's going to get one out, then I like the odds for Montgomery.
