PGA Best Bets: Novig Matchup Picks and Finishing Position Props for Arnold Palmer Invitational

March 3, 2026

RotoBaller's top PGA player props, best bets, and matchup picks for the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Get commission-free odds and market edges with Novig golf picks.

The Florida Swing kicked off in great fashion for us, as this article's matchups went 2-0 at the Cognizant Classic, bringing our record to 6-2 in Novig matchups on the year. In this week's edition, we'll take a look at some of the juicier matchup spots and finishing position props available for the star-studded Arnold Palmer Invitational - one of the best events on the PGA Tour schedule.

This week's picks will all be using the odds on the most unique and fastest-growing sports prediction sites -- Novig. If you're not familiar with the site, I'll explain how it works and provide some of my favorite wagers to place on Novig.

As always, make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your season-long, DFS, and betting needs. Now, here are some of my favorite PGA bets and props for the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational.

What is Novig?

Novig is one of the fastest-growing peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. On Novig, users trade directly with each other, without the "vig" typically associated with a sportsbook. The vig is the fee sportsbooks charge you to use their services. It's a hidden cost that can be found in the odds that are being offered on each side of a specific bet. When a book offers -110 odds on both sides of a bet, they're keeping close to 10% of every bettor's wager, regardless of whether you win or lose.

On Novig, users trade with each other on the outcomes of sporting events, similarly to the way that investors trade on the stock market. But instead of having to beat the books, you just have to win against other users -- there's no commission kept by the site.

Users can bet on most traditional sports markets, including moneyline bets, spreads, totals, tournament matchups, player props, parlays, and futures!

Novig operates with two virtual currencies. Novig coins can be wagered for fun and to test out strategies, while Novig cash can be wagered on all markets and then redeemed for real cash prizes.

Access to Novig is widespread; it's now accessible in 36 U.S. states.

How Does Novig Work?

Since users are not playing against the books, there is an opportunity to make more money per wager that you win, and users can usually find better values on bets (in terms of the prices being offered) than on traditional sportsbooks.

There are no oddsmakers; users dictate their own odds. You can either accept the odds that the market is offering or set your own odds.

If you set your own odds, another user has to accept them on the other side for the bet to be activated.

Users drive the market, not the sportsbook or oddsmakers!

PGA Tournament Matchup Picks

All odds are from Novig and were accurate/available as of 3/3/2026.

Ryan Gerard OVER Maverick McNealy (+107 at Novig)

We have to be willing to keep an open mind when betting PGA matchups. Last week, I felt as though Ryan Gerard was getting a little too much respect, and recommended taking Shane Lowry over him at the Cognizant - a play that we easily cashed on.

This week, I project that Gerard should actually be a slight favorite in this matchup against Maverick McNealy, which makes me very satisfied to grab him as a live dog at Novig. Long iron play is a stat I'm always very interested in at Bay Hill, and simply put, these players have drastically different skill sets in that department. McNealy is one of this field's weakest long-iron players statistically, ranking 73rd among API entrants over the last 50 rounds. Those struggles are reflected in his results at Bay Hill. Since 2021, Mav has gone MC-T49-73rd in three API starts.

Conversely, Gerard has been been elite from distance. He grades out first in this API field in Proximity from 200+ yards (L50). He's never made a start in the API - which is a ding - but from a statistical perspective, he profiles as a nice fit.

Rory McIlroy OVER Scottie Scheffler (+197 at Novig)

Betting against Scottie Scheffler is something I rarely even consider, but I've gotta admit, I'm intrigued by this huge number on Rory McIlroy this week. Bay Hill is about as close as we're gonna get to a level playing field for the two, as Scheffler holds a career scoring average of 70.60 across five career API starts, while McIlroy boasts a 70.50 scoring average across 11 appearances at Arnie's place.

Rory goes full send 💪

He became the first player to drive the 10th green at Bay Hill in the ShotLink era during the 2024 @APinv 🤯#TOURVault pic.twitter.com/kKnmZh3ZiR

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) March 3, 2026

Of course, a bet against Scheffler is always playing with fire to an extent, since he owns such an impressive win rate. However, we have seen the World No. 1 look mortal on occasion recently, especially in opening rounds, as the Texan heads to Bay Hill ranked 117th on the PGA Tour in Round 1 scoring average.

This isn't strictly a Scottie fade, as McIlroy is playing some of the best golf of his career at the moment. Across his last 10 starts, he's either won or finished inside the top-three half of the time. He's also been excellent on this Bay Hill layout, amassing a win and five additional top-10 finishes during his career in the API.

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PGA Finishing Position Props

All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 3/3/2026

Pierceson Coody WINNER (+6567 at Novig)

I've been following Coody's career since his amateur days, and after high-end success both in college and on the KFT, he's now coming into his own at the PGA Tour level. The 26-year-old is off to a blistering start this season. He's made the cut in all six of his 2026 starts, logging top-25 finishes in five of those six with a runner-up finish at a long, brutish Torrey Pines layout standing as the highlight.

Coody teed it up at Bay Hill in the 2023 API while still playing on the Korn Ferry Tour, logging an impressive T14. His length off the tee - he ranks seventh on the PGA Tour in SG: OTT & 15th in Driving Distance - makes him uniquely suited to handle this beefy Bay Hill course. An uptick in Coody's iron play - he's gained strokes on approach in five of six starts this season - give him the type of ceiling we need to take an outright flyer on him this week.

Chris Gotterup WINNER (+5782 at Novig)

Novig has the best Gotterup outright number I've found this week, which makes me tempted to take a flyer on a player who has demonstrated the rare ability to close out tournaments when he finds himself in contention on Sundays. Gotterup's win equity is inarguable, as he's now won three times since July - including twice this calendar year.

Don't let this man get hot 🔥@ChrisGotterup now has four wins on TOUR in his first 72 starts. pic.twitter.com/2RC01SeJbw

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) February 9, 2026

Maybe the best question is, "Why is he it at this number?"... Well, there's no course history to work with, as this will be his first career start at Bay Hill, and his most recent start - a missed cut at Riviera - also happened to be his worst result of the year. However, when digging into the missed cut at Genesis, we find that Gotterup still gained true strokes both OTT and APP, but had a terrible outing on and around the greens.

From a projection perspective, the bomber doesn't profile as a bad fit at Bay Hill. He brings elite power off the tee - currently fifth on PGA Tour in Driving Distance - and will be fully capable of taking advantage of the Par-5s, as he currently ranks ninth on Tour in Par-5 Scoring Average. So while there are some unknowns with Gotterup this week, they are cooked into this number that stands out as one of the best values on the board this week.

More PGA Analysis and Picks

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