Fact or Fiction: Fantasy Football Outlooks for Malik Willis, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Luther Burden III, Jayden Higgins, Jake Tonges

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Justin's fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for Week 18 of 2025. He looks at surprising performances from Malik Willis, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Luther Burden III, Jayden Higgins, Jake Tonges.

Welcome back to Fact or Fiction, RotoBaller's weekly look at some of the NFL's most shocking performances. If you're reading this in search of lineup advice for Week 18, I first want to say that I'm sorry your commissioner has your league playing in Week 18.

If you're here because you're playing DFS this week or you're looking ahead to next year in dynasty, then I'm less sorry, but still a little sorry. I hate Week 18 in fantasy football because it's just a complete mess. Even playoff teams with seeding at stake, like the Chargers, are set to sit their starting quarterbacks. It's going to be weird, but there are also bound to be some strong performances. They just won't come from the usual suspects.

Let's talk about the Week 17 performances from Malik Willis, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Luther Burden III, Jayden Higgins, and Jake Tonges. Do they mean anything for Week 18?

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Malik Willis, QB, Green Bay Packers

Week 17 stats: 18-of-21 for 288 yards and a touchdown, nine carries for 60 yards and two touchdowns -- overall QB3

Edit: Willis won't play this week, as the Packers will play it safe in a meaningless game and start Clayton Tune. Do not play Tune in fantasy.

We start off with a player who might not even play in Week 18, emphasizing the beauty (sarcastic) of the final week of the NFL regular season.

With Jordan Love sidelined with a concussion, the Packers started Willis against the Ravens. Green Bay lost that game, locking the team into the No. 7 seed in the process, but you can't blame Willis for the loss, as he did his best. Willis threw a touchdown pass and rushed for two more, but the Packers defense allowed 41 points, so ... that was an issue.

Malik Willis looks like a starting QB and it's not just the arm. It's the poise and ability to manipulate the pocket. pic.twitter.com/KysfojOSEH

— Ted Nguyen (@FB_FilmAnalysis) December 28, 2025

The Packers have nothing to play for this week, so it'd probably be smart to keep Love on the sidelines for another week. Assuming that's the case, should you play Willis in fantasy? Well ... probably not.

The problem is that Minnesota has allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to the position, including giving up just one rushing score to a quarterback. The team has allowed under 100 net passing yards in three of the last five games.

Willis also suffered a shoulder issue in Week 17. Just like it's smart to let Love sit, it might also be smart to let Willis heal up. This game doesn't matter for Green Bay, so maybe sitting one of the league's best backups to get him healthier if needed in the postseason would also be smart.

I suppose we should also talk about Willis in dynasty leagues. He's the top free-agent name on the market this offseason as far as quarterbacks go, and several teams could use a quarterback. Teams like the Cardinals, Dolphins, and Steelers could all be potential landing spots. You could even see the Jets make a move if someone jumps them in the draft and trades up to No. 2 for Dante Moore.

While I'm not sold on Willis being a long-term star, it's definitely not out of the question that he could be something like the 15th-best quarterback in the league. If you can find a way to get him cheap in dynasty before free agency, you might want to do that because his cost could skyrocket if he lands in the right place.

Verdict: I think this is a Fact in the sense that Willis is a pretty good quarterback, but there's too much uncertainty to trust him as more than a QB2 in a Week 18 fantasy championship

Jacory Croskey-Merritt, RB, Washington Commanders

Week 17 stats: 11 carries for 105 yards and two touchdowns -- overall RB6

Right as we were getting ready for fantasy drafts, the name Jacory Croskey-Merritt ended up on everyone's tongues as a top sleeper pick. I'm sure if you go search the RotoBaller archives, you can find a lot of people hyping him up. Heck, I made a joke in this article about how everyone kept talking about him over and over.

Anyway, it was an up-and-down year for Croskey-Merritt, but he definitely had an impact when it mattered, finishing as a fantasy RB1 in two of the three playoff weeks. Before that, he'd gone eight weeks in a row without a top-30 finish.

Croskey-Merritt faces the Eagles this week, a team that allows the 10th-most fantasy points per game to the running back position. However, volume is definitely a concern, as he only had 11 carries last week and hasn't been targeted in the pass game since Nov. 16 against the Dolphins.

Playing Croskey-Merritt is definitely only going to pay off if he manages to score his fifth touchdown in the past four games. There's upside, but there's also a lot of risk since touchdowns tend to be a bit fluky.

Verdict: Fiction -- Croskey-Merritt has found the end zone a lot lately, but are you really counting on that with a championship on the line?

Luther Burden III, WR, Chicago Bears

Week 17 stats: eight catches for 138 yards and a touchdown -- overall WR1

So, that happened. Luther Burden III, who hadn't finished better than WR28 since Week 3, was the overall WR1 in Week 17.

Every week, Luther Burden has a play that shows absolutely ridiculous body control and change of direction ability.

Here's that play last night. #DaBears pic.twitter.com/Nzgztxjj9q

— Ryan Droste (@ryandroste) December 29, 2025

This was the culmination of Burden's increased role. While he missed Week 16 with an ankle injury, Burden now has six or more targets in each of the last four games that he's played. He hadn't hit that mark at all before this stretch.

Can we expect Burden to consistently produce as a WR1? No, but he's definitely on the upswing at the moment and is going to be a fantasy monster in 2026.

However, it's tough to recommend him in Week 18 until we get closer to Sunday. Burden suffered a quad injury on the last play of the Week 17 game against the 49ers, so his availability this week might be in question. If he's good to go, he has a juicy matchup with a bad Lions secondary.

Verdict: We need more information about the quad injury. Definitely play him if he plays, but have a backup plan ready

Jayden Higgins, WR, Houston Texans

Week 17 stats: two catches for 88 yards and a touchdown -- overall WR9

Remember when I linked to one of my articles in the Croskey-Merritt section? I decided to re-read that article while working on this one, and unbeknownst to me at the time I wrote Jayden Higgins' name down for this one, I actually mentioned Higgins as a potential league winner in that one.

Now, if you started Higgins most of the year, you might not have even made the playoffs. But if you started him in Week 17 as a flex play, you might have actually won your league because of it!

(If you can't tell, I'm being facetious here. I was obviously wrong about Higgins being a league winner and just got lucky that his best game came in Week 17. But hey -- I will stand by naming Quentin Johnston, who had nine top-30 weeks this season.)

Anyway, Higgins caught a 75-yard touchdown on the first drive against the Chargers on Saturday, then didn't really do much else, adding a 13-yard catch and failing to bring in his other two targets. He's good for a touchdown every so often, but his production isn't consistent enough to be relied on in fantasy.

Verdict: Fiction

Jake Tonges, TE, San Francisco 49ers

Week 17 stats: seven catches for 60 yards and one touchdown -- overall TE3

With George Kittle scratched ahead of San Francisco's Week 17 game against the Bears, Jake Tonges stepped up as the team's top tight end, catching seven passes for 60 yards and a touchdown.

Coming into this week's game, he had totaled two catches for nine yards over his past nine games. Basically, all of his good games this year came with Kittle out. Per RotoViz's Game Splits app, Tonges is averaging 1.9 PPR points when Kittle plays and 12.3 PPR points when Kittle is out. That's a stark difference.

Purdy responds with a TD to Tonges!

CHIvsSF on NBC
Stream on @NFLPlus + Peacock pic.twitter.com/4K3uGEy7b6

— NFL (@NFL) December 29, 2025

It also makes it really easy to advise fantasy this week. Kittle will almost certainly play in a Week 18 game where a win gets the 49ers the No. 1 seed, and Tonges will be lucky to see more than one target. The only thing that changes the math here is if Kittle suffers a setback and ends up missing this one.

Verdict: Streaming appeal if Kittle is out again and zero appeal at all if Kittle plays

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