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The top NFL Pick'em pool picks for Week 13 of the 2025 NFL season. Kyle's weekly NFL Pick'em pool targets, avoids, and predictions to help win pick'em contests.
Welcome back to our NFL Pick'em Pool Picks for Week 13 of the 2025 NFL season. Thanksgiving week of the NFL season has arrived, and what a slate of games we have in store on Thursday, starting with Green Bay at Detroit, Kansas City at Dallas in the afternoon, and Cincinnati at Baltimore for the nightcap. The three Thanksgiving games are also the three highest projected totals of the week, so hopefully there are lots of points. Then we get a Black Friday matchup between two 8-3 NFC teams, as the Bears take on the Eagles.
Week 12 delivered one of the most exciting slates of the season with three overtime games and the biggest comeback of the season, with the Cowboys storming back from a 21-0 deficit to shock the Eagles in a 24-21 win. There have been five overtime games in the past two weeks after five total in the first 10 weeks.
Every week of the 2025 NFL season, I'll lock in my picks for each game and rank them based on my confidence level in the selection. The games will be grouped into locks, semi-confident picks, and toss-ups. The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least-confident pick. As always, we'll dive into some traditional and advanced stats as well as historical trends on each side to find matchup advantages. Let's get to the picks for Week 13.
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Week 13 NFL Pick'em Pool Locks
The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least-confident pick. The higher the number, the better. The projected winners are italicized.
16 - Los Angeles Rams at Carolina
Bryce Young is incapable of stacking together positive performances. After a career-high 448 yards in Week 12 at Atlanta, the former No. 1 overall pick fell back to earth in Week 13, failing to surpass 200 passing yards for the ninth time in 11 games this season. The Rams continue to look like the best team in football, and rank as the 10th-best team through 11 games since 1978, per Aaron Schatz's DVOA metric. It's one of two matchups of former No. 1 overall picks this week.
Stafford and Davante are unstoppable.
TBvsLAR on NBC
Stream on @NFLPlus + Peacock pic.twitter.com/I6oEdOJtUC— NFL (@NFL) November 24, 2025
15 - Seattle vs. Minnesota
Sam Darnold revenge game? Max Brosmer NFL debut? This matchup has plenty of intrigue with Darnold facing the team that he led to a 14-3 season last year and has struggled to replicate his production, with J.J. McCarthy posting historically bad numbers through his first six career games. He is now in concussion protocol and isn't expected to play in Week 13, setting up undrafted free agent Max Brosmer for his first career start. It's a brutal spot for Brosmer to make his first career start, with Seattle boasting the second-best defense in the league by DVOA.
14 - Los Angeles Chargers vs. Las Vegas
The Raiders arguably look like the worst team in the NFL, and just fired offensive coordinator Chip Kelly. Geno Smith took a whopping 10 sacks in their Week 12 loss to Cleveland, the most in a game this season. The Chargers are off their bye week and cruised to an easy 20-9 win back in Week 2 when these teams faced off. However, the last time we saw them player, they got manhandled by the Jaguars 35-6. Justin Herbert was under siege with a 52.2% pressure rate, the 19th highest in a game this season.
Semi-Confident Picks For Week 13 Pick 'Em Pools
13 - Denver at Washington
Denver is off their bye week and will look to extend their win streak to nine straight. The offense is still inconsistent, but the defense is dominant, leading the league with 49 sacks and allowing 192 points through 11 games, the third fewest in the league. The last defense to put up those marks or better through the first 11 games of a season is the 2000 New Orleans Saints, according to Stathead. Meanwhile, Washington is also off their bye week and has lost six in a row. They will likely be without Jayden Daniels (elbow), but could be getting Terry McLaurin (quadriceps) back.
12 - Jacksonville at Tennessee
Both teams faced off against NFC West opponents last week, with the Jaguars pulling out an overtime victory against the Cardinals and the Titans putting up a decent fight against the Seahawks, but ultimately losing their 10th game of the season. Cameron Ward showed a lot of promise against an elite Seattle defense and will look to secure the first home win of his career.
sheesh Cam Ward ‼️
SEAvsTEN on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/z6iYLTBhsC
— NFL (@NFL) November 23, 2025
Ward faces off against another No. 1 overall pick in Trevor Lawrence, who continues to be up and down. The Jags are firmly in the thick of things in the AFC South after the Colts lost last week. With the Colts' tough upcoming schedule and the Texans on a roll, the division looks like one of the most compelling in football.
11 - Philadelphia vs. Chicago
The second-ever NFL game on Black Friday projects to be a great one, with two eight-win teams in the NFC. Neither team has been dominant on their road to eight wins, with the Eagles owning a +30 point differential and the Bears owning a -3 point differential. The Bears are the first team since the 2022 Minnesota Vikings with a negative point differential and eight wins through the first 11 games. And the Eagles just blew the second-biggest lead in franchise history against the Cowboys last week.
10 - Baltimore vs. Cincinnati
Joe Burrow (toe) returns on Thanksgiving night for the first time since Week 2. Lamar Jackson is dealing with multiple injuries on the other side, and Baltimore currently sits as a seven-point favorite. Both meetings between these two teams last season produced two of the highest scoring games of the season, with the Ravens winning both by a combined four points. Baltimore's defense has been playing lights out, and it will be a great challenge for Burrow in his first game back.
#Bengals QB Joe Burrow on playing on Thanksgiving:
“You grow up going through Thanksgiving — you have your meals, and you sit on the couch ... watch the Lions vs. somebody, watch Matthew Stafford throw 300–400 yards with Calvin Johnson, and probably lose the game.”😂 pic.twitter.com/fTsagL7ymN
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) November 25, 2025
9 - New England vs. New York Giants
We could see a matchup between two of the best young quarterbacks in the league on Monday Night Football if Jaxson Dart (concussion) is able to clear protocol. Maye had an odd game last week in Cincinnati, throwing a pick-six and generally being inaccurate a lot of the day, but the Patriots' defense produced a pick-six of their own and found a way to escape with the win. The Giants should have upset the Lions last week on the heels of a masterful performance from Jameis Winston, but then Jahmyr Gibbs happened.
8 - San Francisco at Cleveland
Brock Purdy looked rough in his second game returning from an early-season toe injury, becoming the first quarterback this season to throw three first-half interceptions. Now, he'll face off against a nasty Browns defense in cold and windy weather conditions in Cleveland. On the other side, Shedeur Sanders became the first Browns quarterback to win in his first start since 1995, despite a bad leading the offense to just a 26% success rate, which was the seventh worst out of 356 offensive outputs this season.
NFL Pick 'Em Toss-Ups Of Week 13
7 - Miami vs. New Orleans
In Miami's most recent game before their Week 12 bye, Miami outlasted Washington in overtime in Madrid for their second win in a row and third in four games. They could improve to 6-7 with wins in the next two weeks over the Saints and Jets, and position themselves right in the thick of the AFC playoff race.
6 - Atlanta at New York Jets
The Falcons ended their four-game losing skid last week with a win over the Saints, as Kirk Cousins looked better in his second start of the season. The 37-year-old Cousins will face off against 36-year-old Tyrod Taylor, who played decently well last week. It's at least a better-looking matchup than the last time these teams faced off in December of 2023, when the Desmond Ridder-led Falcons beat the Tim Boyle-led Jets 13-8. The teams combined for just 453 yards in the game. There have been three games this season with that combined yardage total or less (TEN @ DEN in Week 1, GB @ CLE in Week 3, and TEN @ LV in Week 6).
5 - Buffalo at Pittsburgh
Josh Allen and the Bills were beaten up last Thursday night in Houston, with Allen taking a career-high eight sacks. They are still searching for the best combination of pass catchers and added veteran Brandin Cooks to the mix this week. Aaron Rodgers (wrist) should be able to return in Week 13 after missing last week's game against Chicago. After jumping out to a big lead in the AFC North, Pittsburgh has now been passed by Baltimore as they've gotten healthier. With two games left against the Ravens, there is still a lot to be decided.
MAKE IT EIGHT SACKS!
BUFvsHOU on Prime Video
Also streaming on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/4KdTsiXAkw— NFL (@NFL) November 21, 2025
4 - Arizona vs. Tampa Bay
Baker Mayfield, unfortunately, went down with a left shoulder injury during last week's loss to the Rams, and his status for Week 13 is in question. Tampa Bay got jumped from the start, and it was never a competitive game. Arizona lost in overtime to the Jaguars after not being competitive in their previous two games against the 49ers and Seahawks. This game hinges on Mayfield's status, as Teddy Bridgewater showed little to trust in relief last week.
3 - Kansas City at Dallas
The Chiefs had to win against Indianapolis last week to keep their playoff hopes alive, and it took overtime, but they prevailed. Dallas, on the other hand, had a miraculous comeback down 21-0 in the first half against the Eagles, but naturally, the Eagles became super complacent, and Dak Prescott and George Pickens took advantage to earn the largest comeback win in franchise history. This matchup is the highest total of the week at 52.5, and the Chiefs are the only road favorite of the Thanksgiving slate, getting 3.5 points.
There's no substitute for winning.
Chiefs vs Cowboys.
With major playoff implications on the line. pic.twitter.com/xD9l7UILcH
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) November 26, 2025
2 - Houston at Indianapolis
This game should have been flexed to Sunday Night Football with major playoff implications in the AFC South. Houston's defense does everything well. They have forced the fourth most turnovers (19) and have the sixth most sacks (33), something that Daniel Jones avoided in the first 10 weeks, but has plagued him recently. He's thrown four interceptions, taken 12 sacks, and lost three fumbles in the past three games. C.J. Stroud (concussion) has a chance to return for this pivotal matchup, but Davis Mills has also managed the game well and avoided mistakes in his absence.
1 - Green Bay at Detroit
As the first matchup on Thanksgiving, Green Bay and Detroit kick off an elite weekend of football. The same iterations of these teams met on Thanksgiving in 2023. It was Jordan Love's first season as the Packers' starter, and as 8.5-point underdogs, the 4-6 Packers upset the 8-2 Lions 29-22. It was one of the biggest upsets in the history of NFL games on Thanksgiving.
Surprisingly, both teams are looking up at the Chicago Bears in first place in the NFC North. Neither team has performed great of late, especially the Lions, who needed overtime to knock off the two-win Giants at home last week.
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